kingofwale said:
because I had a ban (voluntary, out of honor) bet with letsdance on the prediction.
he went for >600K WW for both PS360 versions combine. I went for more.
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You probably mean to put that > the other way. You're currently saying that he expected more than 600K, and that you expected more than that again. Turn it around, and it's what you agreed to earlier. (A bit nitpicky, but the OP seems like the guy to jump at this).
Letsdance, the pre-orders are rather shady. They can differ by a fair amount, and I really wouldn't use them for predicting future trends. If you rather look at how Ps3 games have been doing in general, you'll see a more interesting picture.
Ps2 games that have had sequels on Ps3 have generally sold roughly as much as each other, despite the Ps3's far lower userbase. The Ps2 had a much broader library of games that were purchased, and thus the peak ones didn't really get a bonus from the large bases. Now, add to this that the Ps3 has far larger launches, and it seems very unlikely for most single platform Ps3 games to launch lower than their Ps2 predecessors.
FFXIII is a multiplatform game. Unless you believe that the X360 will hurt the Ps3's sales more than it will sell itself, this will only increase the amount sold.
Essentially, you can say that for large games, this tends to be the trend
Ps3 with Ps2 predecessors > Higher launch, roughly equal sales.
X360 games with Ps2 predecessors > Higher launch, roughly equal sales, unless the game is Japan oriented, then it's likely to end a bit lower.
Wii games > Same launch, better sales (although this one is heavily unproven, as there are nearly no major 6th gen 3rd party titles on Wii)
Ps360 games > Bigger launch, better sales.
For anything else to be the case, the franchise has to have seen a major decrease, something it's very unlikely that Final Fantasy has. (An alternative reason would be the game being crap, but that's even more unlikely)
