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Forums - Sales - Do you predict a tight race between 360 and PS3 next year?

nightsurge on 08 December 2009
nightsurge said:
I think it will be a repeat of 2008, honestly. Sony wins the first 8 months, MS wins the last 4 to take the whole year. Sony is already on 45nm chips and have drastically shrank their hardware. They won't be able to cut costs much more from this point on.

The 360 on the other hand is sitting at basically 75% of the original launch price. 4 years and only $100 off (the Elite now is the same as an updated Pro). They have 45nm die shrinks left, Valhalla rumored single chip CPU/GPU, and plenty of room for motherboard and hardware casing shrinking. If MS as of 3 years ago was making $75 profit per system sold (old figure but I can find links to it if you want), they have to be raking in huge profit margins right now on the Elite, and at least breaking even or making small profits on the Arcade as well. They've had 2 more hardware revisions since that $75 profit figure and only dropped the price by ~$100 across the board.

Then we have all that combined with MS's commitment to make this year a knock-out punch of a year. They will be going much larger on advertising of games, especially the new IP Alan Wake, and then when Natal comes around, it will see the attention, advertising, and media coverage of a brand new console launch! That combined with huge cost reductions could see $200 Xbox 360 Elites with bundled Natal and $99 Xbox 360 Arcades. At 5 years in, those prices are more than reasonable. Then in 2011 the Elite could drop to $149, then $99 in 2012 for the end of the generation (Arcade discontinued in 2011). By 2012, the PS3 will still cost about double the 360 because they acted far faster than normal to get the large cost savings from a Slim and are still selling for a loss of $30-50 per console (im estimating).

The way I see it, the PS3 swing back this year was only larger than Xbox 360's last year because it was a combo punch of $100 price cut, Slim redesign, and huge advertising push. Next year MS will repeat the process and gain back any lost ground. By generation's end, I predict the Xbox 360 will still have outsold the PS3 by a minimum of 5 million consoles.

I think this will happen.  This thread turned into a flame war for a while so this got missed.  Thought I'd bring it back.



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coolguy on 08 December 2009

by next fall the PS3 should be 199 for the 120 gig and it will out sell every thing



VITA 32 GIG CARD.250 GIG SLIM & 160 GIG PHAT PS3

Netyaroze on 08 December 2009
ramses01 said:
Netyaroze said:



Your arguments are just speculations it could be the way you said but it could be the way I said too. So we just have to wait and see for our selfs. If you really think Natal could achieve 50% of what Wii achieved you will be disapointed. I can see Natal selling 5-8 Millions and 1 million consoles if everything is going perfect. But this wont change the situation.

I believe Wand will be more succesful and if not then there is ICU.

You seem to be vastly underestimating NATAL.  I would expect 15 million stand alones, if the price is aggressive as some of the rumors indicate.  As far as consoles goes, I think a reasonable estimate is 30 million or so consoles assuming 720 doesn't launch before end of  2012.  You have to remember that it is likely that every new 360 will come with NATAL starting next fall.

Ok even if it comes with every console does that mean still dont mean that it will cause a longlasting boost. Ofcourse the numbers will be huge, because it is sold with every console. But the people had no choice they are forced to buy it. But i still think that Natal wont sell much consoles. I dont believe that the Xbox360 will be a lot more desirable for all people just because of Natal. I think SOME might buy it cause of Natal. 

 

What Überkiffer said changed my mind a little bit. Still, I think that to provide a long boost it needs very good software. And natal has yet to prof it can make really more then for example the wand. Because the wand is a camera tool to and instead of certain objects like a baseball bat you can use your wand the difference for the gamer is non existing. Because if you have a real bat in the hand or the wand... Dont know if this is really relevant. They could make a heartbeat detector in the controller or could integrate some vitality sensors. It could detect your feelings too. A microphone is integrated in the eyetoy. So what  can Natal do except of facial emotion recognition, the Wand could not do. The difference is just the 3d and thats the reason for the wand. I still have to see an example for a Software which makes things which are impossible to realize with the Eyetoy plus Wand and are really an enrichment because facial emotion recognition ? How should that work you have to do faces on the camera and then happens what ?

 

Everything else can be done with Wand/eyetoy.



Alby_da_Wolf on 09 December 2009

The wrong assumption most do is that MS still has to react to Sony moves. Actually, MS never stopped doing it, recently it dropped Elite price simultaneously with PS3 price drop and Slim, it launched Forza 3 and Halo:BURP, it had the best selling version of MW2, it had lots of special offers, bundles and rebates in the biggest stores around the world, but although all this lifted XB360 sales again to good levels and occasionally beat PS3 in USA, it didn't manage to make it outsell it WW ever again. MS is already fighting, it isn't idle by any means, and PS3 is outselling a fighting XB360, not an idle one.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


Sardauk on 09 December 2009
Hus said:

Why argue a self confessed troll ?

You can post facts and truths but the troll will always have the advantage, hes on the right side.

 

Funny the crap he gets away with id have every mod on here on my ass for. 

That guy needs help...



 

Evan Wells (Uncharted 2): I think the differences that you see between any two games has much more to do with the developer than whether it’s on the Xbox or PS3.

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Squilliam on 09 December 2009
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
the people that say the ps3 wont be $199 for a long time are clueless. cant you remember everyone was saying the ps3 was never going to get cut to $299 this year? most people were saying $50 price cut at the most. things change fast, anything can happen, so dont rule anything out.

Most people expected the PS3 and SCE to be profitable at the end of 2009... WHOOPS!!!

Can you see how the price cut to $299 may have been negative towards the above?



Tease.

jarrod on 09 December 2009
makingmusic476 said:
jarrod said:
GreyianStorm said:
jarrod said:
GreyianStorm said:

jarrod said:

Halo is bigger than GT now.  Wasn't last gen, but it definitely is now.  Honestly, I'm a little shocked you're taking so much issue with Microsoft's commercially stronger 1st party, it's pretty cut and dry.  And lol @ "true colors".
Game Sales
Gran Turismo 10.85 million
Gran Turismo 2 9.37 million
Gran Turismo 3 14.89 million
Gran Turismo 4

10.83 million
Game Sales
Halo 6.43 million
Halo 2 8.43 million
Halo 3 10.45 million

Halo is bigger than GT on the basis that it finally managed to outsell the lowest selling full GT game to date?
If anything, the figures seem to indicate that GT5 will outsell GT, GT2 and GT4 (on the basis that GT3>GT1, GT4>GT2). You could even say the figures indicate GT5 will be the biggest selling GT game ever, though that is highly unlikely as it won't be so heavily bundled. GT is just as big as Halo though.

I doubt that GT5 will crush previous GT games, but to say that Halo is definitely bigger is just plain false.

Actually, the lowest selling GT hasn't cracked a million yet.  Momentum!

Way to ignore a significant word! Hardly anyone would regard GT PSP as a full GT game...the fact that it is on PSP should show that.

Halo ODST marks massive decline for Halo series, lowest selling Halo FPS ever!

Sony considers GT PSP a full GT game going by their product page (Prepare for the most authentic handheld racing experience as the best-selling Gran Turismo® series debuts on the PSP® system.).  But you're probably right, they're hardy anyone. :P

 

You can't compare PSP sales to PS3 sales.  PSP sales are heavily affected by both piracy and DD.  The system has only has 29 million sellers in its five years on the market, while the ps3 already has 46.

Also, you mentioned GT5:P early, saying that GT5:P to GT5 is like GT3 to GT4.  That comparison is flawed, because of the existance of this, the GT3: Prologue of its day.

Also, the "next gen bump" that many games see (GT2 > GT3, DMC3 > DMC4) doesn't just revolve around graphics.  Content also has a lot to do with it, whether that's the improved combat system of DMC4, or the improved physics and damage and the insane number of cars in GT5.  GT5:P was essentially GT4 with only 70 cars and an improved graphics engine.  It's not nearly the same as GT5, which provides substantial improvements over both GT4 and GT5:P.

I think you've misunderstood me, I'm not saying GT5P to GT5 is like GT3 to GT4, I'm saying you can't accurately project GT5 from GT3 due to (1) userbase/marketshare disparity, (2) the 2 year difference in comparable release timeframes and (3) GT5 being proceeded by an expansive full priced demo.  I'm also saying you can't project out GT5P/GT5 to GT4P/GT4 due the vast differences between the Prologues (GT5P had a worldwide release, heavy bundling driving (free) sales and the advantage of being the first GT-anything on it's platform).

Also, DMC4's combat isn't really much improved over DMC3.  The main addition was Nero, but he wasn't really that complex in terms of changes.



alanshearer on 09 December 2009

The Xbox lacks exclusives. And with Sonys very powerful 1st party lineup it'l spell curtains for the Xbox unless they've got big plans to counteract the Ps3's offerings.



jarrod on 09 December 2009
alanshearer said:
The Xbox lacks exclusives. And with Sonys very powerful 1st party lineup it'l spell curtains for the Xbox unless they've got big plans to counteract the Ps3's offerings.

Halo, Fable, Crackdown and possibly Gears of War and RARE sequels?

Honestly, I'd say Microsoft has the stronger 1st party lineup of the two for 2010 sales wise, and Nintendo blows them both away (with the Mario+Metroid+Zelda trinity, and nichey core support games like S&P2, Monado, Reginliev, etc).  Nintendo has the best 3rd party exclusives lined up too, but as usual they lose out on multiplatform support big time.



CommonMan on 09 December 2009
alanshearer said:
The Xbox lacks exclusives. And with Sonys very powerful 1st party lineup it'l spell curtains for the Xbox unless they've got big plans to counteract the Ps3's offerings.

As a three system owner and a 15 year Sony fan, I have to say that Sony's and MS's lineup for the upcoming quarter are equal at best. I have read this exact same comment about 600,000 times in this thread already.



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