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Forums - Gaming - Could have MW2 sold so much without its $150m marketing campaign

Ail on 02 December 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Who cares if it sells that first week or over 100 weeks? Many Wii and DS games sell for years with huge tails and these are new copies by the way, and cost millions less to develop and advertise, while bringing in even more revenue

There's a huge difference for business between getting 500 millions tomorrow or getting the same amount of money spread over two years...........

Yeah, but because of the ease of development, Nintendo can have many streams of that level at once, while Activision only gets a few

1 Call of Duty/year..........



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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Avinash_Tyagi on 02 December 2009

^Considering Wii sports was a huge reason for people buying the Wii, I'd say it did generate a ton of revenue for Nintendo



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 02 December 2009
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Who cares if it sells that first week or over 100 weeks? Many Wii and DS games sell for years with huge tails and these are new copies by the way, and cost millions less to develop and advertise, while bringing in even more revenue

There's a huge difference for business between getting 500 millions tomorrow or getting the same amount of money spread over two years...........

Yeah, but because of the ease of development, Nintendo can have many streams of that level at once, while Activision only gets a few

1 Call of Duty/year..........

Right, and the release of the new basically kills the sales of the old one, With Wii, that's only really happened once, with Wii fit to Wii fit plus, Nintendo's other evergreen titles continue to go on for years



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Ail on 02 December 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Who cares if it sells that first week or over 100 weeks? Many Wii and DS games sell for years with huge tails and these are new copies by the way, and cost millions less to develop and advertise, while bringing in even more revenue

There's a huge difference for business between getting 500 millions tomorrow or getting the same amount of money spread over two years...........

Yeah, but because of the ease of development, Nintendo can have many streams of that level at once, while Activision only gets a few

1 Call of Duty/year..........

Right, and the release of the new basically kills the sales of the old one, With Wii, that's only really happened once, with Wii fit to Wii fit plus, Nintendo's other evergreen titles continue to go on for years

The release of the new brings another 400 million$ or so the week it releases



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Ail on 02 December 2009

Looking at your list it's likely neither Wii Fit+ or Wii Sports Resort will match MW2 lifetime revenue....



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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FaRmLaNd on 02 December 2009

It would be more profitable to ship 10 million units in 1 week then 10 million over 3 years due to the lower price of bulk manufacturing and shipping. They save a lot of money that way. Its mitigated by the marketing but still its often better in business to make the money now then in a few years time. Less expenses that way. Furthermore they couldn't guarentee that it would have legs like some of Nintendos games.

It was the movie blockbuster approach and it worked. Im sure Activision is happy.



NJ5 on 02 December 2009
Raistline said:

Yes, most of my numbers are on pure guestimates and simple math.

It is not exactly a detailed cost analysis but rather a broad mathmatical guess of averages to show how incredibly well the the company did off a very small amount of DEV funds in comparison to many other games that have at least twice the amount of dev. funds.

The biggest problem with your calculations is that you didn't have a retailer profit at all. You assumed the publisher gets $50 out of the $60 a gamer pays, which is very far from the truth.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Pristine20 on 02 December 2009

I still think it would've sold a gazillion without the marketing budget. Cod4 would probably make more money for them at the end of the day due to its lower dev costs and marketing by word of mouth. I dont think the extra 1-2 mil 1st week sales were worth it but perhaps Activision feels differently. Perhaps they just wanted to break records.



"Dr. Tenma, according to you, lives are equal. That's why I live today. But you must have realised it by now...the only thing people are equal in is death"---Johann Liebert (MONSTER)

"WAR is a racket. It always has been.

It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives"---Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler

Avinash_Tyagi on 02 December 2009

@Ail Actually they probably will, 20 million plus is very likely for both games.

Yes, but like you pointed out, there's one per year, with about six years in a gen, so its limited, With Nintendo you get a bunch that keep on generating revenue, much less limited, which explains why Nintendo profits are so much higher than Activisions.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 02 December 2009
FaRmLaNd said:
It would be more profitable to ship 10 million units in 1 week then 10 million over 3 years due to the lower price of bulk manufacturing and shipping. They save a lot of money that way. Its mitigated by the marketing but still its often better in business to make the money now then in a few years time. Less expenses that way. Furthermore they couldn't guarentee that it would have legs like some of Nintendos games.

It was the movie blockbuster approach and it worked. Im sure Activision is happy.

I'm sure they are, but comparing Nintendo and Activision's profits, shows that Nintendo's method is quite a bit better, cheaper games, with longer legs, 10 billion+ liquid



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)