The most recent surprise to happen this generation was the Wii, and the establishment of motion control games as game changers in the videogame business.  However, it is questionable whether this is a new game genre, because one could consider putting the like of Guitar Heroes in the control gamer category.  And Wii titles also happen to be familar genres, just with new controller schemes.

Anyhow, this being said, I will pose this question: Anyone see some new genre appearing out of nowhere that will end up catching everyone off guard and surprising everyone, and being a game changer?  I mean stuff in the past like:

* Super Mario Bros.

* Tetris

* Grand Theft Auto 3 (put sandbox games on the map).

* Final Fantasy VII (add FMV to JRPGs)

* Madden Football (EA finally put football on the map with this on the Genesis)

* Street Fighter II

* Gran Turismo (driving sim done to that scope)

* Wii Sports (I will throw this on here due to motion control, rather than just controller)

* Legend of Zelda

* Guitar Heroes/Dance Dance Revolution.

* World of Warcraft (breakthrough title for massive multiplayer RPG)

* Starcraft (definitative RTS, that became a phenomenon in South Korea).

* Nintendogs (put pet simulator on the map in a way that generated sales)

* Brain Age (put doing puzzles/brain development, is put on the map)

* Wii Fit (fitness becomes a game).

People can list others.  However, I am speculating we may be near the end of game chaning new genres appearing on the seen, because of the following:

* Games that happen to get the news need to sell a LOT of titles.  This means a higher budget and increased production value.  This means less risk.

* The videogame industry has happened to become so alert to trends that if anything appears on the horizon that may become a game changer, it gets cloned beyond belief.  I could say tower defense games may of been something new, but then BLAMMO, everyone does a tower defense game and the original ends up getting lost as a game changer.

In short, it may be impossible for a new title to both be large enough budget to get news, also also be a completely new genre that people don't happen to notice.  It seems that sequels happen to get more sales, and the industry seeks to establish franchises and brands. 

However, as I write this, it is possible the likes of Nintendo will do something new, if they continue to seek to disrupt things.

Anyone have any ideas here?

This is the kind of thing that's really hard to see except in retrospect. Wii Fit is the only title I see here which many people predicted would be a huge success before the game launched.

In the immediate future, I don't see any big trend setters. I'm sure something is lurking right under our noses and we can't see it.

After taking a night off to think more on this, I think it would be good to step back in and add to what I said to clarify.  What I was pondering here is if there would be some sort of game that would fly under everyone's radar, that would then go on to do such large sales, that it ends up being a game changer in regards to console sales.  Or, is the market so mature now, that you need to have a large budget to get large sales, and such means a game has to have less risk behind it, so it won't pop out particularly.  Also, if something is a serious game changer, then companies will do whatever they can to copy it, and offset it.

Well, I do think that it's notable that we haven't seen a big game changer pop up on the HD consoles yet. That would seem to support the idea that the budgets there are too big to justify the risk. I wouldn't write off the possibility of an HD game coming out of the blue and blowing people's minds, but it looks extra improbable to me.

That still leaves SD games, handhelds, and PC games as platforms where breakout hits have occurred in the last five years. There might also be room in the downloadable space. Games like Castle Crashers, World of Goo, and Braid might not be game changers, but they were massively successful and turned a few independant developers into millionaires.

I don't know what else we could possibly do. Seems like every possible genre has been done.

I'm still waiting for a good RTS game on a console. Aliens vs Predator Extinction on the PS2 was good, Tom Clancy's Endwar was okay, and Halo Wars was okay...but there has yet to be an amazing one.

Almost none of the games you listed actually created new genres; what they did was popularize or reinvent existing genres. By that standard, there will certainly be other "game changers" released in the future. In terms of console games, I'd look at untapped PC genres (MMO, RTS) and new motion control genres for possibilities.

play. create. share.

I can't say there hasn't been attempts to do this.  Sony did release "Eye of Judgement" in hopes that it would be a "next big thing" and drive CCG players to the PS3 platform.  Well, it ended up being a niche product.  There is also LittleBigPlanet to that came along.  Microsoft is trying stuff with Natal at this point, and who knows what will happen.  But nothing seems to have broken through, like a Gran Turismo had, and catch people off-guard in any way.  There doesn't seem to be any Metal Gear Solid titles either.

I do believe we are noticing other things where titles happen to be announced with a year lead time or more before they come out, which throws everything off.

We could also be reaching another place to, of market fragmenting that there ends up not being a single title that dominates, particularly on a single platform, that it ends up being something that drives people to buy, and changes the platform as far as sales.  Wii Fits of the world are a different breed, and expand a subset.  Even the likes of Professor Layton does real well, but just becomes another franchise.

So, will we see a top box-office exclusive from now on, that is only limited to one console?  I have no idea.

I'm pretty sure you can say Halo put console FPS's on the map.

User generated content being a game changer?  Anyone have any idea how huge of a game changer LittleBigPlanet it?  I see there is also Mod Nation Racer coming out, but that is Sony's answer to Mario Kart.  Microsoft's answer is to give away an avatar kart racing game for free, and then selling add-on content.