Will any new game genres come along and be game changers?

[richardhutnik]

famousringo said:

richardhutnik said:

famousringo said:
This is the kind of thing that's really hard to see except in retrospect. Wii Fit is the only title I see here which many people predicted would be a huge success before the game launched.

In the immediate future, I don't see any big trend setters. I'm sure something is lurking right under our noses and we can't see it.

After taking a night off to think more on this, I think it would be good to step back in and add to what I said to clarify.  What I was pondering here is if there would be some sort of game that would fly under everyone's radar, that would then go on to do such large sales, that it ends up being a game changer in regards to console sales.  Or, is the market so mature now, that you need to have a large budget to get large sales, and such means a game has to have less risk behind it, so it won't pop out particularly.  Also, if something is a serious game changer, then companies will do whatever they can to copy it, and offset it.

Well, I do think that it's notable that we haven't seen a big game changer pop up on the HD consoles yet. That would seem to support the idea that the budgets there are too big to justify the risk. I wouldn't write off the possibility of an HD game coming out of the blue and blowing people's minds, but it looks extra improbable to me.

That still leaves SD games, handhelds, and PC games as platforms where breakout hits have occurred in the last five years. There might also be room in the downloadable space. Games like Castle Crashers, World of Goo, and Braid might not be game changers, but they were massively successful and turned a few independant developers into millionaires.

I can't say there hasn't been attempts to do this.  Sony did release "Eye of Judgement" in hopes that it would be a "next big thing" and drive CCG players to the PS3 platform.  Well, it ended up being a niche product.  There is also LittleBigPlanet to that came along.  Microsoft is trying stuff with Natal at this point, and who knows what will happen.  But nothing seems to have broken through, like a Gran Turismo had, and catch people off-guard in any way.  There doesn't seem to be any Metal Gear Solid titles either.

I do believe we are noticing other things where titles happen to be announced with a year lead time or more before they come out, which throws everything off.

We could also be reaching another place to, of market fragmenting that there ends up not being a single title that dominates, particularly on a single platform, that it ends up being something that drives people to buy, and changes the platform as far as sales.  Wii Fits of the world are a different breed, and expand a subset.  Even the likes of Professor Layton does real well, but just becomes another franchise.

So, will we see a top box-office exclusive from now on, that is only limited to one console?  I have no idea.