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Forums - Gaming - Malstrom: Nintendo’s Shield & Defense = “Sustained” Disruption?

^That's true no matter what gaming market you are in lol, if PS3 and 360 had released no big titles all year, do you really think their sales would have been good?

No, what it seems is Nintendo gambled badly on Wii Music and Animal crossing keeping momentum going, and had nothing to pick up the slack when they didn't and so consumers had no reason to buy.

360 and PS3 had a steadier supply of titles this year to keep their sales going, Wii didn't.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Avinash_Tyagi said:
^That's true no matter what gaming market you are in lol, if PS3 and 360 had released no big titles all year, do you really think their sales would have been good?

No, what it seems is Nintendo gambled badly on Wii Music and Animal crossing keeping momentum going, and had nothing to pick up the slack when they didn't and so consumers had no reason to buy.

360 and PS3 had a steadier supply of titles this year to keep their sales going, Wii didn't.

PS3 or 360 can live very well without Sony or MSFT releasing monster titles... 

I mean its' not like 2009 had crazy first party HD titles, it was actually probably one of the weakest year for first party titles...

Your issue is you're only looking at what Nintendo releases.

The Wii actually probably had its best year for third party titles, but most Wii owners ignore those...

 

Hell isn't Nintendo the one that keep putting in their presentations that the Wii is the hardware platform that sells the most third party software ?

If that's the case, a weak first party year shoudn't result in that big of a decline...

 

PS : you ever listen to yourself ? You make it sound like the success of the Wii in any given year depends on the success or failure of a couple first party titles. That is not the case at all on HD platforms...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

^No actually it had very few good third party titles, the only one I can think of is MH3, the others were at best niche titles with little appeal.

Actually the reason for the need for strong first party titles is the lack of quality of third parties on the Wii, as a result yeah Wii success is dependent heavily on Nintendo software.

If the third parties were to release better games on the Wii, then it wouldn't matter that Nintendo first party was weak this year, as it is that's not the case, Nintendo software is what drives Wii sales.

Wii Third party is extremely weak compared to that on the PS3 and 360.

But interestingly enough the strength of the PS360 third party has not helped that market, and as we are seeing companies like EA and the like are losing money. The reason is the evidence for why that market is dying.

Costs of games on the HD twins has greatly outpaced the size of that market, revenue is rising, but so are costs even faster, and as a result profits are dropping, and companies are dying and downsizing.  Look at EA, such a huge company with such sales, and yet its taking losses and laying people off, as are other HD market companies, its a grim forecast for them, on the other hand, say what you will about Nintendo's declining revenue, its profits were extremely healthy.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

@Alterego-X
Examples of Wii gaming moving upmarket? According to M the issue of disruption is not motion controls, mind you, it's about gaming being immediate, accessible, inclusive.

Where is the evidence of such a "new gaming" taking over in core areas? Do we have a new wave of "new" rpgs storming the rpg market? What about shooters? Simulators? Adventure games?

Even breaking these genre conventions, moving upstream would mean fulfilling an "old" section of the market with disruptive propositions. So we're looking for gamers that were entrenched in "old" gaming, but whose needs are now fulfilled by the disruptive product. I don't know a single such person, but maybe that's just my personal milieau.

What I know are people who play "WiiGames" but never played anything other than Tetris or the occasional coin-op 20 years ago, and people who play "WiiGames" in parallel to "old" rpgs, adventures, rts games. As Alby said, I see them tapping into a great, forgotten market that was always there.

Again, maybe it's just me having a limited perspective, but I'd like to see the evidence of the "new gaming" upstreaming at least half as clear as it is that consoles are disrupting PCs in an increasing number of gaming sectors.



"All you need in life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain

"..." - Gordon Freeman

^You're seeing the bridging occurring now, WereKitten, with games like Wii sports resort and NSMB Wii, games designed to upstream, but still accessible to the downstream, the disruption is ongoing

 

Zelda Wii is going to be a key part of it as well



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Avinash_Tyagi said:

^You're seeing the bridging occurring now, WereKitten, with games like Wii sports resort and NSMB Wii, games designed to upstream, but still accessible to the downstream, the disruption is ongoing

 

Zelda Wii is going to be a key part of it as well

How is WiiSports Resort any upper-stream than WiiSports? And same question with NSMB Wii vs say SMG? Going upstream would mean that they fulfill the more demanding user better than the other/previous offering. Like a cheaper, simpler transistor-based amplifier becoming good enough in audio quality to replace a valve-based one to the ear of a picky listener.

If a demanding gamer entrenched in "old-style" adventure and rpg gaming didn't play or enjoy Zelda:TP, are you saying that he/she will be more likely to play and enjoy a more accessible, more immediate Zelda Wii? I don't think his quip with TP was that it was not accessible enough in the first place.

Talking about disruption sometimes does simply not make sense. There will never be disruption in pro flight simulators by simpler to control, more accessible ones because by its own nature a flight simulator simulates complicated controls and complicated situations. The disruption may come in terms of cheaper tech for home-grown hardware, but never in an oversimplification of the controls beyond what identifies a flight simulator.

More in general, talking about disruption when it comes to cultural, intellectual artifacts such as gaming makes as much sense as talking of the cost of materials when you copy a file. Some economic concepts just don't apply in the same way. You can generalize them enough to apply, but they will become an entirely different thing.

 

 



"All you need in life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain

"..." - Gordon Freeman

Avinash_Tyagi said:

^No actually it had very few good third party titles, the only one I can think of is MH3, the others were at best niche titles with little appeal.

Actually the reason for the need for strong first party titles is the lack of quality of third parties on the Wii, as a result yeah Wii success is dependent heavily on Nintendo software.

If the third parties were to release better games on the Wii, then it wouldn't matter that Nintendo first party was weak this year, as it is that's not the case, Nintendo software is what drives Wii sales.

Wii Third party is extremely weak compared to that on the PS3 and 360.

But interestingly enough the strength of the PS360 third party has not helped that market, and as we are seeing companies like EA and the like are losing money. The reason is the evidence for why that market is dying.

Costs of games on the HD twins has greatly outpaced the size of that market, revenue is rising, but so are costs even faster, and as a result profits are dropping, and companies are dying and downsizing.  Look at EA, such a huge company with such sales, and yet its taking losses and laying people off, as are other HD market companies, its a grim forecast for them, on the other hand, say what you will about Nintendo's declining revenue, its profits were extremely healthy.

There was a lot more than MH3 released this year...

 

EA Sports Active, Conduit, Madworld, Punch Out, Dead Space Extraction,  Mario and Sonic at the Winter Games, Metroid Prime Trilogy, GH5, Rock Band Beatles,...

 

I don't get the 'if third party were to release better games excuses' seeing how Regie keeps touting how the Wii is the platform that sells the most third party software, quality hardly seems to hamper sales. Or are you suddenly doubting the words of your chief evangelist ?

 

Face it, the issue isn't quality ( maybe it is for the hardcore Wii owners on this site) but the Wii customers at large that bought Carnival Games, Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games, Rabbids go home and more of the same have never seemed to listen much to review to direct their purchase...

The real issue is those same customers have been feeling the recession and holding more on gaming purchases than traditionnal gamers..

PS : EA isn't a very good example seeing how 2009 is probably the year they invested the most in the Wii and saw overall the biggest loss...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

@Werekitten

Motion plus and things like the swordfighting As for NSMB vs. Galaxy, NSMB is far more accessible than galaxy, and most of the current gamers are proof of Mario's ability to upstream, so many gamers got their start with Mario, they were not upstream when they first loaded up their nes's

No a bridging title is different than a pure upstream title, a bridge title is one that appeals to both the downstream and the upstream and is able to move downstream consumers upstream.

Actually its quite possible that a demanding upstream customer could be swayed by Zelda Wii over TP, TP was a GCN game shifted to Wii, this is very different, and will be built from the ground up to Wii, its a game that could very well give an experience very appealing to the upstream, much more than TP did. And its not just accessibility with the issue of TP, part of the reason for TP's failure was the staleness of the Zelda 3D formula, the whole issue of Zelda Wii is the idea of moving away from that formula that has dominated the other 3D Zelda's, another reason it will likely be more successful in reaching the upstream than TP was.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

By the way for all that Wii Fit and Mario kart Wii did so well last year..
Do you realize that combined that represent less than 20% of Wii software sales ?



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

^No actually it had very few good third party titles, the only one I can think of is MH3, the others were at best niche titles with little appeal.

Actually the reason for the need for strong first party titles is the lack of quality of third parties on the Wii, as a result yeah Wii success is dependent heavily on Nintendo software.

If the third parties were to release better games on the Wii, then it wouldn't matter that Nintendo first party was weak this year, as it is that's not the case, Nintendo software is what drives Wii sales.

Wii Third party is extremely weak compared to that on the PS3 and 360.

But interestingly enough the strength of the PS360 third party has not helped that market, and as we are seeing companies like EA and the like are losing money. The reason is the evidence for why that market is dying.

Costs of games on the HD twins has greatly outpaced the size of that market, revenue is rising, but so are costs even faster, and as a result profits are dropping, and companies are dying and downsizing.  Look at EA, such a huge company with such sales, and yet its taking losses and laying people off, as are other HD market companies, its a grim forecast for them, on the other hand, say what you will about Nintendo's declining revenue, its profits were extremely healthy.

There was a lot more than MH3 released this year...

 

EA Sports Active, Conduit, Madworld, Punch Out, Dead Space Extraction,  Mario and Sonic at the Winter Games, Metroid Prime Trilogy, GH5, Rock Band Beatles,...

 

I don't get the 'if third party were to release better games excuses' seeing how Regie keeps touting how the Wii is the platform that sells the most third party software, quality hardly seems to hamper sales. Or are you suddenly doubting the words of your chief evangelist ?

 

Face it, the issue isn't quality ( maybe it is for the hardcore Wii owners on this site) but the Wii customers at large that bought Carnival Games, Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games, Rabbids go home and more of the same have never seemed to listen much to review to direct their purchase...

The real issue is those same customers have been feeling the recession and holding more on gaming purchases than traditionnal gamers..

PS : EA isn't a very good example seeing how 2009 is probably the year they invested the most in the Wii and saw overall the biggest loss...

Problem is, a lot of the game you list just didn't sell well, they were niche or not appealing, or they sold but to people who already owned the Wii.

Reggie saying that Wii sells the most third party software only tells part of the story, sure it may sell the most, but that's because there are tons of games on the Wii and a lot of Wii's out there, doesn't mean those games sell a lot, most don't and  it doesn't mean those games are good or will drive hardware, in fact most third party games are flops.

Most of the games you list are the exception, sure carnival games and Mario and Sonic sold, but a lot of party games on Wii flopped (Also Rabbids go home is a pretty good adventure platformer game)

No it has nothing to do with people holding off their purchases,  if it did, then NSMB Wii wouldn't be selling, its not just being played by hardcore gamers and it pushed a lot of hardware last week, and its going to sell a lot on Wii far more than Galaxy, proving that people aren't holding off, it has to do with quality of the games, most third party games on the Wii flop and flop hard, the games you list that did sell over a million, are the exception, not the rule.

 Saying EA invested the most in Nintendo this year is forgetting that only one of their games actually sold more than a million, even with Nintendo letting them bundle with WM+, only EA sports active broke a million, now what that says is that there are people willing to buy, if Sports active could sell over 2 million, its just that most of the third party games on the Wii just aren't very good.

 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)