How will New Super Mario Bros Wii sell in its 1st 4 weeks? How will it sell lifetime? Below is what I think...

Japan week 1: 740K

Japan week 2: 296K

Japan week 3: 177K

Japan week 4: 109K

Japan 4 week Total: 1.3 Million

Others week 1: 682K

Others week 2: 304K

Others week 3: 212K

Others week 4: 227K

Others 4 week Total: 1.4 Million

America week 1: 916K

America week 2: 881K

America week 3: 395K

America week 4: 301K

America 4 week Total: 2.4 Million

WW week 1: 2.3 Million

WW week 2: 1.4 Million

WW week 3: 784K

WW week 4: 637K

WW 4 week Total: 5.1 Million

Japan LT sales: 3.2 Million

Others LT sales: 7.1 Million

America LT sales: 9.8 Million

WW Lifetime sales: 20.1 Million

What is your prediction? Is mine to high or to low?

I think after 4 weeks the game will be somewhere between 3-4 million copies. The game will have strong legs after the first 3 weeks. The sales could go up during Black Friday weekend and Christmas weekend.

^^ I agree with everything you said except abt the part where you said that after 4 weeks it will be between 3-4 million WW, I will bet you that it will reach at least 5 million WW after 4 weeks. I know that the bet is more likely in favour of you as it will probably end up 4.5 million or sumthin but watever...

Japan week 1: 670K

Japan week 2: 350K

Japan week 3: 185K

Japan week 4: 125K

Japan 4 week Total: 1.33 Million

Others week 1: 600K

Others week 2: 450K

Others week 3: 230K

Others week 4: 210K

Others 4 week Total: 1.49 Million

America week 1: 1100K

America week 2: 720K

America week 3: 420K

America week 4: 300K

America 4 week Total: 2.54 Million

WW week 1: 2.37 Million

WW week 2: 1.52 Million

WW week 3: 835K

WW week 4: 635K

WW 4 week Total: 5.36 Million

Japan LT sales: 3.8 Million

Others LT sales: 8.5 Million

America LT sales: 10.7 Million

WW Lifetime sales: 23 Million

I'll try figuring out the 1st 4 weeks eventually, but I say 1.82m first week WW, 18.9m lifetime.

My guesses:

WW 4 week Total: 4.5 Million
WW Lifetime sales: 17 Million

Over 20 million lifetime? Galaxy is at a little over 8 million thus far. I know this is an anticipated game, but come on!
My guess is a blazing holiday season with 3.5 million games sold and on to roughly 12 million lifetime which will still probably beat Galaxy in the end.

I also don't think 20 million lifetime will happen, but it's hard to say exactly where it will fall. If the game doesn't catch on with the Wii's expanded audience, even 12 million lifetime will be difficult. However, I expect the game will do decently with the expanded audience; just not as well as Mario Kart Wii has done.

I'd expect Mario Kart like sales honestly, it's multiplayer focused and probably the most approachable game on Wii. I also think it's highly likely Nintendo will bundle the game next year alongside Wii Sports, further inflating sales.

I don't think it will break the 18-million mark to be honest. I'd bet 11-mill lifetime sales WW. After playing the game hands on it is just too difficult for a casual gamer to enjoy. Lets face it , casual gamers want games they can just pick up and play and NewSuperMarioBros:Wii is not that kind of game. I spent all evenning playing and am only on World3 with over 12 continues. This game is very challenging it might have been easier if I wasn't playing multiplayer but it is still definatly not a game for casuals and non-gamers.

So its not really the most approachable game on the Wii their are far more casual games for the non-gamers, casual gamers to pick up rather then pick up a sidescrolling Mario! The brand name will likely sell NewSuperMarioBros:Wii to the hardcore and some older gamers who grew up playing Mario but thats about it.

Honestly 11 mill is being optamistic chances are it'll level off about 8-9 mill like Galaxy did!