NJ5 said:
Kasz216 said:
NJ5 said:
I really don't think this is a coincidence. While Kasz216 is right that the probability is not exactly 1 in 8 billion due to the distribution of letters not being even, that actually probably makes this even MORE of a coincidence in this case, as the letters F U C K Y and O are among the least common in the English language:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_frequency#Relative_frequencies_of_letters_in_the_English_language
Furthermore, not all veto letters would have 7 lines. The number of veto letters with 7 lines (able to spell "fuck you") would be smaller than the total number of historic veto letters.
But to be on the safe side let's say the probability is 1 in 1 billion and that Arnold wrote 10 thousand veto letters, all of them with 7 lines. What is the probably that one or more spell FUCK YOU? According to my calculations, it's only 0.001% or 1 in 100,000 (I had to use a big numbers calculator given the amounts involved).
And that's why three very optimistic assumptions... in reality the probability is likely much lower.
Can it be a coincidence? Yeah... but it's extremely unlikely.
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F U C K Y and O are uncommon in general.
But at the start of words are very common. Or at least it seems that way.
Like I said I don't have an actual dictionary on me.
Additionally you have to worry about frequency of words.
To think a governor would go through all that trouble is ridiculious.
I'd find it more likely that he has a ghost writer who did it for the hell of it one broing day at the office then I would he doing it himself.
Either seems... unlikely though. It's just too... pointless.
Stuff like this pop up in newspapers all the time.
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Apparently wiki also has the frequency of starting letters of a word:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_frequency#Relative_frequencies_of_the_first_letters_of_a_word_in_the_English_language
All of them except for O are less common than average. And yeah we could take word frequency into account, but I think it's pointless to refine the estimates further and further as that would very hardly overcome the conservative assumptions I made earlier.
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A) i think it does matter. Since some words are particularly common.
Such as... all the onese he actually uses at the start of every line. Except Kick.
B) Why would you limit it to only things Arnold has wrote? Arnold is hardly the only person who writes this stuff, and the only person who would be noticed if he did.
Let me put this another way.
The individual chances of any one person winning a pick six lottery is unlikely. Yet it happens all the time. People win pick 6 lottos picking six numbers between 1 and 49.
The same i believe is true with Pick 7 lottos.
I think you jump to conclusions at your own risk... even at stuff like this.
I mean... what would be the point? I mean you would have to know people would notice, and you would half to know you would catch flack... during a ridiculiously stressful and important time in your position.