@jarrod

And what does that have to do with GT5 selling well? GT3 sold well when the PS2 was barely at 20M.

It's not just raw userbase, it's the demographics.   PS3 doesn't cast as wide a net as PS2 did, and as a result you're seeing the more casual friendly games (which yes, GT is one of) not quite hitting the same benchmarks.  Minna no Golf 5 in Japan makes a good example (50% reduction from MG3), I expect something similar (though not quite as drastic) for GT5 in terms of sales.

Plus now, we have Forza.  It's not really challenging GT overall yet, but it does provide an attractive alternative for gearheads that GT3 didn't have factor in, and it's on the more popular HD console in America.  The bigger dips for GT5 versus GT3 will be Japan and America, which is also where the dropoff from PS2 to PS3 is more aggravated.

keep dreaming

@Jarrod

Then we will have to wait and see won't we? Personally, I think you have a very logic reasoning on how GT5 can sell less, yet that doesn't explain then why GT5:p sold such huge numbers, even without factoring bundles and DD from PSN.

You can't also forget that GT is a household name and a banner holder for Sony, it's the most recognizable sony franchise, and it's on par to what Halo is for Microsoft and Mario is for Nintendo, so it will sell on name alone, so you can't compare it to any other game.

Plus, the change in raw userbase and demographics can't explain why other household games of the PS2 that made the shift for PS3, managed to outsell their past iterations on the PS2, mainly MGS4 selling more than MGS3 and others selling almost on par, like Ratchet and Clank.

If those games, which don't have a fraction of the fanbase of GT can do it, why wouldn't GT do it as well?

Oh, I agree GT is Sony's biggest 1st party gun and likely the biggest exclusive PS3 will ever see.  And I also think GT5's going to push big system sales, particularly in Europe.  And I expect heavy bundling will help push sales too, it certainly did with GT3.

The Halo and Mario comparison are also apt, but I'd say they actually more reinforce my suspicions.  You look at Super Mario on N64 (64) to GameCube (Sunshine) to Wii (Galaxy), and you see pretty directly how userbase and demographics immediately impact upper sales thresholds.  Same story for Halo on Xbox (2) vs 360 (3).  In each case a reduced base inherently reduces upper tier sales, while an improved base improves them.  Generally though, the bigger your series is, the bigger base it needs to hit those upper limits.

And really, PS3's reduced base has impacted most franchise game sales.  Even R&C and MGS really, which aren't near their series highpoints on PS2.  R&C got hit harder, but again that's a demographics issue (PS3's not near as "family friendly" as PS2).  MGS4 is more an odd horse, it's demographics line up closer with how PS3's performed, but even still it's only matched MGS3 (4.5m), not MGS2/1 (7m+).  Going off MGS4, GT4 would be the best case scenario for GT5 sales (which I don't really disagree with).

GT5Prologue sets up something of a false comparison to go off though imo.  Comparing it to GT4P is really fundamentally flawed given (1) GT4P didn't see worldwide release, (2) GT4P wasn't the series debut on it's platform and (3) GT4P wasn't a unbiquitous system bundle.  What people usually do is use GT4/P figures as a springboard for GT5/P in terms of performance, but in context the aforementioned issues make any real direct comparison inherently unsound.

@jarrod

PS3 reduced base can impact negatively on the sales of GT5, yet it's also a mistake to assume that the userbase won't increase over the year thus bringing more sales to GT5 itself. Do people actually believe that GT3 made those numbers in a year or so, when the PS2 had a comparable userbase to the actual PS3 userbase? No, it kept on selling until GT4 was released.

My point is that GT5 can do GT4 numbers, and has some possibilities to surpass it, especially if GT5 becomes the only GT game on PS3, which I doubt.

Actually GT4:p didn't release over in NA, yet if the impact of that prologue was low even on EU, with a NA release it could only go up to a bit over 1.5M. It was a heavily bundled game here in Europe, yet, as I said, it was a very expensive bundle when the base PS2 with two controllers and a memory card costed 50 euros less.

It is as you say, it won't do GT3 numbers, that's pretty much guaranteed, yet it can do some big sales, especially since there is a rather large fan base still waiting for the game, and given that GT5 will correct two of the main issues with GT4, the lack of online and the lack of damage, it can even bring a new fanbase to it.

Yet you have no way at all to guarantee that.

I can actually guarantee it will do GT3 like numbers more then you can that it wont.

User base argument, GT3 came out on a 12 million user base, its succesor came out when PS2 was hitting 60 million give or take.  GT3 goes on to sale nearly 15 million.

GT5 comes out March PS3 user base leats say 30/35 million, GT6 big IF its even on PS3 will take alteast 2 years to release after GT5 (GT3 to GT4 took 2.5 years between jdm releases).  PS3 should be at 50 million probbaly closer to 60 before GT6 release date comes up.  (similar to GT3 and GT4)

So just how will user base limit GT5 sales ?

Plus its the first GT of the gen, those always sale the most.  Online, damage 1000 cars (1st GTs of a gen usualy had much less) OFFICIAL WRC and Nascar.

  Except in the case of Halo Vs Killzone 2 Killzone 2 is the better game then Halo 3 and doesn't sell as well due to the name recognition factor.

   On the other hand GT is the best series by far AND has the name recognition.  It's the name AND the quality instead of a split.

@Hus

I think you're quoting the wrong person, since i'm one of the biggest GT fans on this site and i'm always sticking up for GT.

Its ok to be a fan have differance of opinion with another fan.

aint you the one with the guarantee ? either way my point stands regardless who i quoted.