| lestatdark said: @Jarrod Then we will have to wait and see won't we? Personally, I think you have a very logic reasoning on how GT5 can sell less, yet that doesn't explain then why GT5:p sold such huge numbers, even without factoring bundles and DD from PSN. You can't also forget that GT is a household name and a banner holder for Sony, it's the most recognizable sony franchise, and it's on par to what Halo is for Microsoft and Mario is for Nintendo, so it will sell on name alone, so you can't compare it to any other game. Plus, the change in raw userbase and demographics can't explain why other household games of the PS2 that made the shift for PS3, managed to outsell their past iterations on the PS2, mainly MGS4 selling more than MGS3 and others selling almost on par, like Ratchet and Clank. If those games, which don't have a fraction of the fanbase of GT can do it, why wouldn't GT do it as well? |
Oh, I agree GT is Sony's biggest 1st party gun and likely the biggest exclusive PS3 will ever see. And I also think GT5's going to push big system sales, particularly in Europe. And I expect heavy bundling will help push sales too, it certainly did with GT3.
The Halo and Mario comparison are also apt, but I'd say they actually more reinforce my suspicions. You look at Super Mario on N64 (64) to GameCube (Sunshine) to Wii (Galaxy), and you see pretty directly how userbase and demographics immediately impact upper sales thresholds. Same story for Halo on Xbox (2) vs 360 (3). In each case a reduced base inherently reduces upper tier sales, while an improved base improves them. Generally though, the bigger your series is, the bigger base it needs to hit those upper limits.
And really, PS3's reduced base has impacted most franchise game sales. Even R&C and MGS really, which aren't near their series highpoints on PS2. R&C got hit harder, but again that's a demographics issue (PS3's not near as "family friendly" as PS2). MGS4 is more an odd horse, it's demographics line up closer with how PS3's performed, but even still it's only matched MGS3 (4.5m), not MGS2/1 (7m+). Going off MGS4, GT4 would be the best case scenario for GT5 sales (which I don't really disagree with).
GT5Prologue sets up something of a false comparison to go off though imo. Comparing it to GT4P is really fundamentally flawed given (1) GT4P didn't see worldwide release, (2) GT4P wasn't the series debut on it's platform and (3) GT4P wasn't a unbiquitous system bundle. What people usually do is use GT4/P figures as a springboard for GT5/P in terms of performance, but in context the aforementioned issues make any real direct comparison inherently unsound.
