I also think the blue ocean aren't gamers they are people who want something practical something they already have interest in doing. Things like WiiFit and WiiMusic sold because non-gamers are interested in those things. MarioKart is a racer, its not to complicated like Forza or GranTurismo and its simple enough for a non-gamer to pick up and play.

NewSuperMarioBros lacks the day to day interest of a non-gamer. It also isn't as straight forward as MarioKart. It will appeal to the hardcore demographic and alittle to the casual. But non-gamers who are the main market for Wii won't likely pick it up. That being said it could over its lifespan reach 20-million like NewSuperMarioBros has on the DS. But I doubt very much that it will reach 11-million in its launch year.

The people who pick up NewSuperMarioBros will be the hardcore and a couple old school gamers who remember the Mario of yesteryear. The Blue Ocean non gamer market will be reluctant to pick up NewSuperMarioBros!

^Initially maybe, but that will only last as long as it takes for them to try it at a friends house

The game will sell more than 12 million in its first year, maybe even 15.

This game WILL be one of the 10 best selling games of all time. This game is Nintendo's ace in the hole. You can play it alone and have friends hop in and out at any level. Instead of tacking multiplayer minigames on the side (even though they're here too, and awesome), you can play every single level in the game 1-4 players, in either the regular adventure, or the coin battle mode. Oh man so good.

HERE is the trend we should be looking at:

The first 2-D Mario game on any console explodes. A new console means a new way to play, enjoy, eat/sleep/breathe 2-D Mario action.

Super Mario Bros. - 40 million, the game that invented all this gangsta shit

Super Mario World - 20 million (and the reason many people bought a SNES, it showcased the beautiful new 16-bit graphics back when graphical leaps were huuuuge each time)

New SMB - 19 million (and the reason many people bought a DS)

Super Mario Land - 18 million (and the reason many people bought a Game Boy)

New SMB Wii is the first 2-D Mario game (Super Paper Mario obviously doesn't count as it's a story-driven comedy RPG/platformer hybrid), and New SMB Wii showcases the Wii by using tilt and shaking functions, but only sparingly so they enhance the gameplay like delicious sprinkles, rather than making it a wagglemasher. And it showcases the philosophy of the Wii, which is getting a group of people together and having a blast, with everybody dressed in white and high-fiving.

This game is THEE Christmas gift, for this year and the next year. People will be picking this game up when they buy a new Wii, for years to come. But it will only take one year for this game to crush 11 million sales.

The moment of silence is appreciated. I think I'll have another right now...

If we're going to start judging games based on if they sell 10 million or not.

We're going to be quite disappointed often.

It may or may not sell 10 million...

though regardless no one should expect a game to sell 10 million.  That's ridiculious.

Super Mario Bros. is going to be the only franchise that has sold 10 million copies of a single game in 3 different decades. It's already the only franchise that has sold over 20 million in 2 decades. (Pokemon misses it by a hair.) The only franchises to sell 10 million in 2 decades are SMB, Pokemon, and Gran Turismo. This is Mario's threepeat.

New SMB outsold Super Mario Land, becoming the best-selling handheld Mario of all time.
If you don't count bundles, New SMB Wii is competing with SMB3 at 17 million, at a point when the Wii is just about to pass NES's lifetime sales this Christmas.

All casual gamers know Mario. All hardcore gamers know Mario. Everybody knows Mario. Mario is coming home.

Eh, still.

It's like Tiger Woods.

Tiger Woods is such a great player that everytime he doesn't win a tournament its seen as a failure even though people aren't supposed to win EVERY tournament.

The bar gets set so high for some people, and i'd say in this case, a game that there is no way to win.  Only to lose... and in it, the remarkableness of something gets lost in there.

Say the game sells 9 million.  That's remarkable, almost anybody would like to be in their place, but it'd be considered a failure, even though its something that's crazy good.

Well it would be disappointing, as its only slightly more than galaxy's sales

One thing that could go against New Super Mario Bros. Wii:

Mario Kart Wii's sales are nearly directly linked to the Wii. It's a game you pick up together with the Wii. It seems that ~ 25% of new owners pick up Mario Kart Wii, actually.

Now, Mario Kart Wii seems as if it will hold up ~20% after christmas as well. You will also have Wii Sports Resort, which looks to sell to a good 30% of new purchasers. You also have Wii Fit and Wii Fit +

As a result of this, New Super Mario Bros Wii is launching on a far larger competition than Mario Kart Wii did. It launched in competition with Wii Fit and Mario & Sonic/Brawl, but that's still less than what NSMB Wii is facing.

Due to the evergreen nature of the Wii games, NSMB Wii is launching against Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit +, Wii Sports Resort and Mario & Sonic 2.

I don't think that NSMB Wii will have less ability to rely on legs than the previous evergreen titles had. It will have to depend on people who already own a Wii buying it too. As a result, New Super Mario Bros Wii should be rather front-loaded, and then it may fall down to Mario Kart Wii esque numbers after christmas, or quarter 1.

I'm sort of suggesting that the later a Nintendo game comes out on Wii, the less it will sell.

Actually I think it would make it sell more as people would be looking for a few games to go with their new Wii and get it as well, as well as those who played Mario kart already and saw another Mario game and were like let me get it as well

Only Mario can still carry this much hype on his shoulders, and still jump to the stars.

But even if it doesn't reach the top 10, this game will never be considered a failure!  For it has already won... my heart.