Why New Super Mario Bros. Wii WILL NOT sell 11 million in less than a year.

[Joelcool7]

Millennium said:
I'd really like to think that NSMBWii would sell that well, but the more I think about it, the more I'm not sure it can. The problem is with marketing.

To tap into the blue ocean, there's really only one thing you have to do: show people having fun. It's how the Wii _____ series does so well, and how even Wii Music broke 2.5 million in such a hostile market. It's how MK:Wii, the only game outside the Wii _____ series this gen to break 15 million sales, did it. But NSMB:Wii can't do this. Why not? Simple: it has no motion. No matter how you dress it up, you just plain cannot make button-mashing look fun. And if it doesn't look fun, the blue ocean won't bite.

I also think the blue ocean aren't gamers they are people who want something practical something they already have interest in doing. Things like WiiFit and WiiMusic sold because non-gamers are interested in those things. MarioKart is a racer, its not to complicated like Forza or GranTurismo and its simple enough for a non-gamer to pick up and play.

NewSuperMarioBros lacks the day to day interest of a non-gamer. It also isn't as straight forward as MarioKart. It will appeal to the hardcore demographic and alittle to the casual. But non-gamers who are the main market for Wii won't likely pick it up. That being said it could over its lifespan reach 20-million like NewSuperMarioBros has on the DS. But I doubt very much that it will reach 11-million in its launch year.

The people who pick up NewSuperMarioBros will be the hardcore and a couple old school gamers who remember the Mario of yesteryear. The Blue Ocean non gamer market will be reluctant to pick up NewSuperMarioBros!