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Forums - General - Does the USA need a perestroika?

Kasz216 said:
Rath said:
mrstickball said:
But here's a question:

What exactly would we have lost if the banks went under?

It's not like every single bank participated in the atrocious behavior, and sold so much toxic assets. Many were left unscathed. Furthermore, the toxic mortgages would not have been forfeited and the houses would have been given to the bad purchasers for free. The debts would of been outstanding, still. Other banks would have come in and bought the toxic assets at discounts (as they always have done) and banks would have actually learned a lesson.

The financial system is quite tightly linked. Even the banks that didn't have the large amounts of toxic assets were affected by the financial crisis (from my understanding).

 

Worst case scenario is that the financial sector would have completely imploded, there would have been runs on banks almost no lending and jut a complete economic disaster. Basically all the major banks would have collapsed.

Best case scenario - a few more large banks collapse, eventually the sector pulls through and we are were we are now in five years time (and with the government not having given out a ridiculous amount of money in loans).

Actually some banks weren't effected that badly... and had loans forced upon them that they didn't want, because they didn't want people knowing which banks were the good ones and which were the bad ones.  Or so i've read.

Additionally, a bunch of local level banks popped up... there were plenty of people willing to jump in the place of the big banks when confidence in them waverd.

Had a lot of the big banks fallen... it seems a lot of small local banks would of taken their place.

Not just local banks, large well run foreign banks (probably in the immediate future it would be Canadian banks) would have bought up large portions of the commercial/retail banking of these large poorly run American banks and to most Americans the transition would be seemless; with the (obvious) exception that may foreign banks (in particular Canadian banks) are much more conservitive in their lending practices and wouldn't be willing to give adjustable rate mortgages worth $300,000+ to the unemployed to buy homes to flip.



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Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:
"Had a lot of the big banks fallen... it seems a lot of small local banks would of taken their place."

But if people think the new ones would have just slid into place without massive repercussions to the economy from the destruction of the old -- and I'm not saying you do -- they're deluding themselves.

Bad things would of happened... but not that much worse if you ask me.

I mean, the biggest fear people had was that poor people wouldn't be able to get loans.  That pretty much happened anyway.  Loans almost completly dried up for average people... outside of your smaller banks, more stable chains and the usual "Cash Advance" places that makes money hand over fist.  Or at least that was the case by me.

All that bailout money, the government probably could of made it's own bank to bailout people and provide non-profit loans to people for a few years until new banks took the place of old ones if it wanted to.

Probably. 

@ mrstickball:  So your problem is with the timing, rather than the occurrence, of bailouts? 



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People seem to forget that a lot of small local banks also took on bad loans and have suffered because of it. Also, what happened to conservatives being protectionists?

You want foreign banks to own American ones? How does it sound to you if the Saudi government bought Bank of America?

Also, a lot of big foreign banks were linked to the crisis too such as UBS in Switzerland. Major Western European banks made low interest loans to people in Eastern Europe which will probably be where the next banking crisis comes from.



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ckmlb said:
I have a question, where did Perestroika get the Soviet Union? I think that answers if the US should follow that example.

The perestroika firstly got the Soviet into a massive hole (as any reform as widereaching as it would) but within a decade they were (in general) far better off economically than before the perestroika. It allowed their economy to grow.



Rath said:
ckmlb said:
I have a question, where did Perestroika get the Soviet Union? I think that answers if the US should follow that example.

The perestroika firstly got the Soviet into a massive hole (as any reform as widereaching as it would) but within a decade they were (in general) far better off economically than before the perestroika. It allowed their economy to grow.

But the political system fell apart and Gorbachev lost power which led to the USSR falling apart into 15 Republics. Which was a good thing, but not that good for the Soviet Union as a unified nation.



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Final-Fan said:
Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:
"Had a lot of the big banks fallen... it seems a lot of small local banks would of taken their place."

But if people think the new ones would have just slid into place without massive repercussions to the economy from the destruction of the old -- and I'm not saying you do -- they're deluding themselves.

Bad things would of happened... but not that much worse if you ask me.

I mean, the biggest fear people had was that poor people wouldn't be able to get loans.  That pretty much happened anyway.  Loans almost completly dried up for average people... outside of your smaller banks, more stable chains and the usual "Cash Advance" places that makes money hand over fist.  Or at least that was the case by me.

All that bailout money, the government probably could of made it's own bank to bailout people and provide non-profit loans to people for a few years until new banks took the place of old ones if it wanted to.

Probably. 

@ mrstickball:  So your problem is with the timing, rather than the occurance, of bailouts? 

A little bit of both.

The chain of events that were bad (from my research) is:

  • Government backs loans of questionable reliability to lower income Americans thanks to CRA of 1999.
  • Banks continue to act predatorily, using the fed backing
  • SHTF
  • Government reacts by hastily infusing the banks with $800 billion of TARP funds
  • Some banks go under
  • Others see huge profits, continue bad business as normal

My problem is that the enabler was the US government backing bad loans. 66% of all bad loans were through government-based securities, so I do believe the government shoulders most of the responsibility for the failure, as well as rectifying the situation.....Why would the government approve of something, then back out from taking care of the very banks they forced to issue predatory/questionable loans?

So because I think that the government may have had the right to help out (since it created the problem initially), it should have at least done it in such a way as to ensure the money was used efficently. But now we see that the money, like most other government initiatives, did not go entirely to the problem, losing taxpayers billions of dollars in expenditures and interest.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

So again, your problem is that the government stepped in with poor timing and technique -- not that it stepped in -- to limit the destruction.



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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

I wish it hadn't, but I understand why they stepped in. However, since they did it, I do have a problem with how they handled it as a lot of the funds were mis-managed and did not have the intended effect that they were designed for.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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ckmlb said:
People seem to forget that a lot of small local banks also took on bad loans and have suffered because of it. Also, what happened to conservatives being protectionists?

You want foreign banks to own American ones? How does it sound to you if the Saudi government bought Bank of America?

Also, a lot of big foreign banks were linked to the crisis too such as UBS in Switzerland. Major Western European banks made low interest loans to people in Eastern Europe which will probably be where the next banking crisis comes from.

Except small local banks didn't take on bad loans and suffered because of it.  Not many anyway, because they were much more conservative in their lending polcies because they had to be... and because they couldn't afford to be in the loan securities swapping buisness.