Alright I recently got in debates about whether or not Sony should participate with a PS4 or should they stick with the PS3 next generation. This lead to conversations about Nintendo and Microsoft's plans next generation. Someone decided to bring up something I never thought about, Microsoft is rumoured to be launching Natal as if it were a whole new platform and the same could be said about Sony's motion controller. So the generation of 2010-2016 might see something never before done in the industry. New methods of play rather then new platforms!

X-Box Natal

In Fall 2010 we will see the launch of Project Natal. Already confirmed titles like Fable3 are hyping it up to be the next revolution in how we play games. As a platform Natal is expected to cost about 200$ and a bundled 360 is expected to go for 600$ the price point of an entirely new console. If Microsoft views this as a next generation platform we could see it become the default control scheme.

PlayStation 3 Wand

Much like Natal, Sony's new wand is set to bring Sony gamers a new way to play games. This is seen as the first direct competition for the Nintendo Wii. Some have suggested that the new controller might get bundled with every future PS3 to make it essentially the next generation platform from Sony.

What factors contribute to starting a new generation

-Life cycles (Nintendo typically has five year life cycles for its platforms)

-Sales (when a console starts to loose too much steam the company tends to resort to giving us a new platform)

-software (When developers start scaling back software support, a new generation is usually imminent)

-Graphics (When the platforms no longer have competitive visuals a new platform is usually right around the corner)

-Innovations (When competitors innovate a new platform is usually right around the corner)

So we all know that Nintendo's five year cycle ends in 2011. This has been the default launch window for their next platform. However if the competition decides to forgo new consoles in favour of their new controll scymatics will Nintendo launch a fresh platform and take on the established user bases of Sony and Microsoft? Or will Nintendo stay the course and keep Wii fighting along till the bitter end? Right now the Wii is starting to loose steam, for the first time ever the PS3 has actually beat the Wii in sales and the Wii's market share is now in a steady decline.

On the Sony boards some fans suggested Nintendo should ride the Wii till its bitter end. However is that a good idea? could the Wii survive till 2015/16? Or is the Wii2 nessecary for competing with Sony and Microsoft? Obviously as the competitors platforms get cheaper and cheaper Nintendo is forced to cut their prices due to obvious hardware inferiority. So what happens when the PS3 drops to 199.99$ likely in 2011 or 99.99$ inevitable before 2015/16. Will Nintendo be able to keep the Wii selling at its current rate or will Sony and Microsoft over take it?

So this begs the question, when should Nintendo start the next generation?

Or do you call Sony and Microsoft's bluff and expect Microsoft to start the next generation next year?

2012 probably, could be delayed in the west to 2013 but Japan will see Wii 2 in 2012

2011 if Vitality Sensor experiment works. 2012 or later if it doesn't.

It's not gonna be a "Wii 2".

expecting wii 2 in 2012 2nd seaon... other then that... The ps3 having huge sales is no big surprise and a price cut... ps3 and xbox360 already has pretty much their fanbase covered so they should be declining.... about 2010 February

Why does everyone here seem to think 2012?

If Nintendo goes by their five year life cycle and Wii continues to shrink in market share, wouldn't you expect Nintendo's next console in 2011? I personally expect Nintendo to give the Wii one last big push in 2010 with Pikmin,Mario,Link and Donkey Kong, Fox hopefully all making appearances. But after such a powerful line up could Nintendo even keep the Wii going another two years?

So if Sony releases the Wand and Microsoft Natal instead of new platforms is it benificial for Nintendo to push into a new generation?

2015.

I had my eyes rolling at the "obviously inferior hardware" comment. I just bought a PS3 and couldn't be more disappointed with it, I instead hooked up my Gamecube to my HDTV and couldn't be happier. Games look FINE, some people overreact.

People want good products. What's the point of a hardware juggernaut and games that push it if you can't even play it easily? I had to learn Uncharted and Killzone, and I still wasn't having fun. These games are not accessible, even Racthet isn't. Sony doesn't get it, and people playing them up and giving it no benefit of the doubt don't get it either.

I just started playing Majora's Mask on my Gamecube Zelda Collector's Edition disk, and WOW, what a breath of fresh air! After all those hours of trying to fix the camera in Racthet with that slow second analog....Finally I'm playing a game that's supposed to be played! Intuitive and fun, delicious pleasure.

2013

It guves me this feeling that 2011 is early... and it has to release ww... and yes it will keep up the two years (your also missing metroid, kirby, hopefully a colleseum pokemon game)

annonced late 2011 2013 out
or ... late 2012 (like november)