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Forums - Gaming - The reality of DVD vs Blu Ray vs Digital Distibution. As of October 20 2009

WereKitten on 22 October 2009
selnor said:
WereKitten said:
selnor said:
^
...
@ PullusPardus.

18% marketshare for DD, only 4% for BluRay. It has happened faster than anyone would have predicted.

Wrong, read the article:

- digital distribution up 18% over last quarter, to a total of about 10% market share

- Blu-Ray up 66.3% over last quarter, to a total of about 4% market share

Want to make a bet on which market share is going to grow faster over the holidays period and in the following months? With the Blu-Ray players being as cheap as they are now and surely replacing DVD players in the mass market at a growing rate, do you really think that BD won't cannibalize the DVD market quick enough to be the relevant alternative to DD in a few years?

Um I read the article again. There is nowhere that says BluRay went from 3-4% marketshare ( thats about 66.3% increase you claim for software sales. )

But yes I made a mistake. DD has 10% marketshare. Considering DD really only took off properly on Live 2 years ago extensively, and now this christmas we have 1080p just introduced.

I am willing to take your bet. Because the figures I have seen for Bluray software sales have declined for 18 months. With a few spikes.

Just search for the number. From the article:

"In its news release with the data, DEG attempted to highlight sales of Blu-ray disc sales, which rose an impressive 66.3% in the quarter."

As for the bet, I claim that at the end of Q1 2010 Blu-Ray revenue will have grown more than DD (e.g. ending with 8% of total marketshare vs 13% of DD). If you want to take it, we can wager the usual signature for a month :)



"All you need in life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain

"..." - Gordon Freeman

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selnor on 22 October 2009
WereKitten said:
selnor said:
WereKitten said:
selnor said:
^
...
@ PullusPardus.

18% marketshare for DD, only 4% for BluRay. It has happened faster than anyone would have predicted.

Wrong, read the article:

- digital distribution up 18% over last quarter, to a total of about 10% market share

- Blu-Ray up 66.3% over last quarter, to a total of about 4% market share

Want to make a bet on which market share is going to grow faster over the holidays period and in the following months? With the Blu-Ray players being as cheap as they are now and surely replacing DVD players in the mass market at a growing rate, do you really think that BD won't cannibalize the DVD market quick enough to be the relevant alternative to DD in a few years?

Um I read the article again. There is nowhere that says BluRay went from 3-4% marketshare ( thats about 66.3% increase you claim for software sales. )

But yes I made a mistake. DD has 10% marketshare. Considering DD really only took off properly on Live 2 years ago extensively, and now this christmas we have 1080p just introduced.

I am willing to take your bet. Because the figures I have seen for Bluray software sales have declined for 18 months. With a few spikes.

Just search for the number. From the article:

"In its news release with the data, DEG attempted to highlight sales of Blu-ray disc sales, which rose an impressive 66.3% in the quarter."

Ah yes. Thanks. And sorry if I doubted you. :)

The thing though is with Bluray marketshare so low, 4% 60% increase isn't that much marketshare. The more marketshare you have the harder it is to hit higher numbers of % increase. I predicted ages ago that BluRay would reach about 28-30% marketshare at the most and die off. I still hold by that.

DVD after 3 years had 22% marketshare against VHS sales.(2001) However in 2002 DVD had 59% marketshare. This is all based on actual disc sales. Not sales of PS3's where noone buys a BluRay movie. So with this in mind for BluRay to be even clode to the adoption of DVD it should be around 20% marketshare as of March 2009. March 2010 which will be BluRay's 4th year it should be leading in software sales. DVD had 59% marketshare even though households on average had 70% VHS's and 30% DVD players. Trouble is BluRay is sharing its space with DD. And DD will never ever fade but only get stronger. Wheras physical media will always die. But noone predicted Movie downloads to move quicker than BluRay, effectively it's been the 360 and Live pioneering the push to.



ShadowSoldier on 22 October 2009

Selnor...try harder when it comes to trolling. I've seen that you've kind of slacked on your stealth trolls



Black Women Are The Most Beautiful Women On The Planet.

"In video game terms, RPGs are games that involve a form of separate battles taking place with a specialized battle system and the use of a system that increases your power through a form of points.

Sure, what you say is the definition, but the connotation of RPGs is what they are in video games." - dtewi

Jaaau! on 22 October 2009

Selnor, don't bet your house this time... :)



selnor on 22 October 2009
ShadowSoldier said:
Selnor...try harder when it comes to trolling. I've seen that you've kind of slacked on your stealth trolls

Um how is is trolling? Is it because it doesn't fall in with your line of fanboyism? This is just the latest facts of the latest figures mate. Nothing added by me. So your post seems rather sour.



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ShadowSoldier on 22 October 2009

No it's trolling because you've been posting this shit all day.



Black Women Are The Most Beautiful Women On The Planet.

"In video game terms, RPGs are games that involve a form of separate battles taking place with a specialized battle system and the use of a system that increases your power through a form of points.

Sure, what you say is the definition, but the connotation of RPGs is what they are in video games." - dtewi

The Anarchyz on 22 October 2009

Those that bash the PSPGo, please don't defend DD in this thread...

Now to the topic:

I'm a big supporter of DD, i say a lot that if i could download a car (for less than the dealership of course), i would do it, but not as the mandatory standard, as an option...

And people don't read the articles, they just read what HardOCP wants them to read, it says clearly that BR sales are up 66.3% in the quarter... It's a slowdown from the 91% last quarter (that's why they say that it plunged 13%) but it's higher than the 18% of DD (that has 10% of the market right now)... And if that growth is constant for both sides, in a few quarters the marketshare can switch, so read the articles well...

I still think that all the "DD is the future" talk online is fueled by HD-DVD supporters...



Jaaau! on 22 October 2009
ShadowSoldier said:
Selnor...try harder when it comes to trolling. I've seen that you've kind of slacked on your stealth trolls

Are you trying to say this is an attack on Bluray?  An attack on this format they tried to push with the that console, that made it incredibly expensive, which was not needed for games and now is rendered useless for movies by DD...? this format the other console can't play but with the advent of DD it doesn't need?

No way mate...  I think you are going too far...  

...

:)

 



WereKitten on 22 October 2009

selnor said:

...

The thing though is with Bluray marketshare so low, 4% 60% increase isn't that much marketshare. The more marketshare you have the harder it is to hit higher numbers of % increase. I predicted ages ago that BluRay would reach about 28-30% marketshare at the most and die off. I still hold by that.

DVD after 3 years had 22% marketshare against VHS sales.(2001) However in 2002 DVD had 59% marketshare. This is all based on actual disc sales. Not sales of PS3's where noone buys a BluRay movie. So with this in mind for BluRay to be even clode to the adoption of DVD it should be around 20% marketshare as of March 2009. March 2010 which will be BluRay's 4th year it should be leading in software sales. DVD had 59% marketshare even though households on average had 70% VHS's and 30% DVD players. Trouble is BluRay is sharing its space with DD. And DD will never ever fade but only get stronger. Wheras physical media will always die. But noone predicted Movie downloads to move quicker than BluRay, effectively it's been the 360 and Live pioneering the push to.

I'm pretty sure iTunes and stand-alone Netflix and similar services have more weight in revenue than 360's Live, but I haven't the numbers right now.

What I think you're missing is that by the time DD eats away at physical media substantially Blu-Ray will also have cannibalized DVD. Starting this holiday season there will almost not be any reason to buy a standalone DVD player instead of a BD one, even to replace an old cheap one. And once the penetration of players is high enough the DVD will be just be phased off by the content producers.

Btw, I might have inadvertently stealth-edited my previous post, so you might have missed my last sentence on the bet.



"All you need in life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain

"..." - Gordon Freeman

selnor on 22 October 2009
WereKitten said:

selnor said:

...

The thing though is with Bluray marketshare so low, 4% 60% increase isn't that much marketshare. The more marketshare you have the harder it is to hit higher numbers of % increase. I predicted ages ago that BluRay would reach about 28-30% marketshare at the most and die off. I still hold by that.

DVD after 3 years had 22% marketshare against VHS sales.(2001) However in 2002 DVD had 59% marketshare. This is all based on actual disc sales. Not sales of PS3's where noone buys a BluRay movie. So with this in mind for BluRay to be even clode to the adoption of DVD it should be around 20% marketshare as of March 2009. March 2010 which will be BluRay's 4th year it should be leading in software sales. DVD had 59% marketshare even though households on average had 70% VHS's and 30% DVD players. Trouble is BluRay is sharing its space with DD. And DD will never ever fade but only get stronger. Wheras physical media will always die. But noone predicted Movie downloads to move quicker than BluRay, effectively it's been the 360 and Live pioneering the push to.

I'm pretty sure iTunes and stand-alone Netflix and similar services have more weight in revenue than 360's Live, but I haven't the numbers right now.

What I think you're missing is that by the time DD eats away at physical media substantially Blu-Ray will also have cannibalized DVD. Starting this holiday season there will almost not be any reason to buy a standalone DVD player instead of a BD one, even to replace an old cheap one. And once the penetration of players is high enough the DVD will be just be phased off by the content producers.

Btw, I might have inadvertently stealth-edited my previous post, so you might have missed my last sentence on the bet.

I expect DVD players to be far outsold by BluRay players ( obviously PS3 sales are included ) but that has been happening for awhile ( but all reports fail to include 360's as a dvd player ). Bu most people that want a DVD player already have 1. It's the software that really shows adoption rates. And it's this I belive BluRay will never have more than 30% of.