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selnor said: ... The thing though is with Bluray marketshare so low, 4% 60% increase isn't that much marketshare. The more marketshare you have the harder it is to hit higher numbers of % increase. I predicted ages ago that BluRay would reach about 28-30% marketshare at the most and die off. I still hold by that. DVD after 3 years had 22% marketshare against VHS sales.(2001) However in 2002 DVD had 59% marketshare. This is all based on actual disc sales. Not sales of PS3's where noone buys a BluRay movie. So with this in mind for BluRay to be even clode to the adoption of DVD it should be around 20% marketshare as of March 2009. March 2010 which will be BluRay's 4th year it should be leading in software sales. DVD had 59% marketshare even though households on average had 70% VHS's and 30% DVD players. Trouble is BluRay is sharing its space with DD. And DD will never ever fade but only get stronger. Wheras physical media will always die. But noone predicted Movie downloads to move quicker than BluRay, effectively it's been the 360 and Live pioneering the push to. |
I'm pretty sure iTunes and stand-alone Netflix and similar services have more weight in revenue than 360's Live, but I haven't the numbers right now.
What I think you're missing is that by the time DD eats away at physical media substantially Blu-Ray will also have cannibalized DVD. Starting this holiday season there will almost not be any reason to buy a standalone DVD player instead of a BD one, even to replace an old cheap one. And once the penetration of players is high enough the DVD will be just be phased off by the content producers.
Btw, I might have inadvertently stealth-edited my previous post, so you might have missed my last sentence on the bet.
