Just_Ben said:
Nice that everybody defines "hardcore" instead talking about the (intended) topic. It seems to me that the Wii has a high casual audience that just don't buy a given type of game. Maybe they are wrong for the Wii, but I say MP3 pumped in NA big time. Given the install base, the high review and that is a first party title, the sells are underwhelming. And that could be a problem for Big N in the long run. If their first party action title doesn't hit, why should third party back them up on that part? I can see better sales for the game in the E.U. because I think (except U.K) the Wii isn't that hyped here and it is a console of choice for a lot of PC gamers. The Software market in Japan is strong, given the titles release, but in NA the software on the Wii is under performing. I personal hope that changes, but at the moment that is the way it is. |
Your fears are misplaced. Metroid Prime 3 is selling stronger than Metroid Prime 2 was, and Metroid Prime 2 ended it's life at 1.27 million copies. Other "action" Wii games have been just as or more successful. Red Steel broke 1 million. Resident Evil 4 will break 1 million. It's odd that you should question 3rd party backing when 2 other action titles have been very successful from 3rd parties. Other 3rd party games have done reasonably well too. You can't really call what it's been selling to this point underperforming when it's selling games (like MP3) faster than they sold on the Gamecube (MP2) even though the Gamecube had a higher install base when released.
Just_Ben said:Well, EA tries with Medal of Honor. The japanese developer (Capcom e.g.) take the Wii seriosly. I understand developer so far: The PS3/360 will have near the same install base in US and EU as the wii (at least it looks that way at the moment). Yes it is expensive to develop for those consoles, but the software sells (like crazy sometimes).
Gears and Halo show that there is a healthy and strong market on the 360 in the U.S. It is less risk at the moment to develop for the 360 I would guess. If Mario Galaxy stays way under expectations in the U.S. Guitar Hero shows same behavior as Madden (360>>>PS3>>>Wii) Big N will have a problem, until a game does very well (considering the install base). So far only RE:4 was considerd a hit (third party). It seems all the hype around the Wii in the U.S. are mostly for Wii Sports, so we can expect a really crazy numbers with Wii Fit, because it fits perfect to the biggest audience. Mario Galaxy will show if there is a big "normal" game software market on the Wii in the U.S. It would also help if MH2 Wii> MH2 PS2.
First of all, RE4 wasn't the only 3rd party hit. Rayman and Red Steel were both million sellers. Sonic SSR sold .72 million. Numerous 3rd party games despite not selling 500K were claimed to be successes by their companies such as Trauma Center. Second, Gears and Halo show there is a healthy shooter market for the 360, but a lot of big name games that cost a lot more money than Metroid Prime 3 have flopped on the Xbox 360 and PS3:
The Darkness pulled in .51 million between both consoles and no longer sells. Stranglehold did even worse, and that game cost 30 million dollars to develop. It's contributing to the bankruptcy of Midway. Project Gotham Racing 4 has taken 2 weeks to sell .12 mil. A huge flop for a big budget racer. Eternal Sonata between two territories even with heavy advertising on TV has sold .17 mil. Blue Dragon between all 3 territories has sold .42 mil. Viva Pinata sold .44 mil.
My point is simply that the Wii is closer to proving that it can sell all genres than the 360 is at this point. It's certainly struggling with sports games, but it's had multiple shooters sell successfully, as well as Mario Sports games, party games, sim games, platformers (if you count Sonic as a platformer), and action-adventure games. It does not yet have a quality racing game to compare sales with. Nor does it have any quality RPGs. The 360 isn't even selling all games in it's strongest genre (shooter) successfully. Even quality games like The Darkness are able to flop.
What conclusion will this lead to for 3rd party developers? Well, if they just base their development trends on their successes to this point, then the 360 is going to struggle to get games outside of the sports and shooter genres. Most of the games it has gotten outside of these genres have been funded by Microsoft directly. Also, all those games that I listed up there cost at least twice as much to make as a Wii game of equal effort. Some of them (Stranglehold) cost 5 or 6 times as much to make. Because of this, a Wii game doesn't need to sell as much to make money. Trauma Center was cited as a huge success by Atlus even though it only sold .48 million units.
With all this in mind, I fully expect the Wii to end up with the majority of 3rd party support, especially from Japanese developers. As I have said many times though, it's unlikely that the effects of this shift will be seen in full force until early 2009 because of how long it takes to develop games this generation, and because the Wii was expected to flop.
