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Forums - Sales - Analysts expect Nintendo to cut year's profit forecast by 30%

johnsobas on 21 October 2009
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Price cut, stronger yen, expected

price cut should have been taken into account when they made their forecast...( they made a forecast of 26 million units in the middle of a recession, noone in their right mind would have forecasted that without expecting to have to drop the price to reach that goal).


you don't know that, and even if they planned to do it they may have been planning to do it a lot later like after Christmas and changed it due to therise in HD sales. 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

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Ail on 21 October 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Price cut, stronger yen, expected

price cut should have been taken into account when they made their forecast...

When they made that forecast originally it was last spring, they probably never expected a price cut happening this year

That does not speak well of their ability to forecast customer behavior toward their product ( I mean seriously without the cut Nintendo wouldn't have sold over 18 millions units this year at the rythm they were going and they forecasted 26 millions..)

 

When Sony forecasted 13 millions units, everyone knew they were going to have to drop the price to reach that target and Sony knew it too...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Avinash_Tyagi on 21 October 2009
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Price cut, stronger yen, expected

price cut should have been taken into account when they made their forecast...

When they made that forecast originally it was last spring, they probably never expected a price cut happening this year

That does not speak well of their ability to forecast customer behavior toward their product ( I mean seriously without the cut Nintendo wouldn't have sold over 18 millions units this year at the rythm they were going and they forecasted 26 millions..)

 

When Sony forecasted 13 millions units, everyone knew they were going to have to drop the price to reach that target and Sony knew it too...

At the time, Nintendo probably didn't expect Wii Music and Animal Crossing to perform as poorly as they did, Nintendo has spent much of the year paying for that messup, which is why the price cut became necessary in their eyes, because they felt they had lost too much momentum, they likely expected Wii Music and Animal crossing to carry Wii for much of the year like Mario Kart and Wii Fit and Wii play did last year.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Ail on 21 October 2009

The stock might take a beating if they do have to reduce the forecast that much.
Especially since other top companies have shown they can do really well even in the current environment ( Apple just pulverized the forecast for the last quarter and kept a strong forecast for the next few quarters). ( can't blame lack of customers spending when Iphones and macs are selling like hotcakes).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Avinash_Tyagi on 21 October 2009
Ail said:
The stock might take a beating if they do have to reduce the forecast that much.
Especially since other top companies have shown they can do really well even in the current environment ( Apple just pulverized the forecast for the last quarter and kept a strong forecast for the next few quarters). ( can't blame lack of customers spending when Iphones and macs are selling like hotcakes).

Its not a lack of consumers, but rather a weaker software lineup, due to the relative failure of two of their games, Nintendo knows it, they screwed up, which is why they price dropped, released a lot of bundles and are releasing a 2D Mario



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Ail on 21 October 2009

By the way Apple sold 7.4 millions Iphones last quarter. More than Nintendo sold DS.



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Avinash_Tyagi on 21 October 2009
Ail said:
By the way Apple sold 7.4 millions Iphones last quarter. More than Nintendo sold DS.

The 7.4 million is shipped, its always shipped in financials, companies really have no way of tracking sold to customer figures unless its all through their own stores



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Ail on 21 October 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
By the way Apple sold 7.4 millions Iphones last quarter. More than Nintendo sold DS.

The 7.4 million is shipped, its always shipped in financials, companies really have no way of tracking sold to customer figures unless its all through their own stores

My bad.

There shoudn't be much difference between shipped and sold though.( in the case of Iphones they probably actually can track it due to having to connect customers to the network but you are probably right).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !