Well it might seem realistic but that's still a long shot.  360 with strong sales throughout the world (except for Japan) couldn't even come close with a $200 pricetag and Gears of War 2.  Not to mention 360 was constantly going up since it's pricedrop with never a drop in between.  Certainly not the case with PS3 who has fallen (for the most part since it's pricedrop).  Although it will start getting those increases it isn't necessarily following traditional trends right now.  So it's really hard to put it on a similar basis from that of last year or really any launch before it.  We might start seeing it have traditional increases with this upcoming week of sales data or it might wait for time to actually catch up with it.  If it's the latter then it's the thing I've mentioned about "peaking before the holiday season occurs" which leads to smaller increases for holiday sales.

Really PS3 is quite the tricky case.  We are all pretty sure it's going to do pretty well (at least compared to last year) but how well is the big question.  My guess is quite the safe guess because I really have no earthly idea.  But based off trends, some historical data, and some educated guesses I think I've found something that seems reasonable.  Peak week is kinda controversial for me but one of the main reasons I have it a little lower than most is because usually more expensive systems don't peak as high.  Look at trends and you'll notice that 360 when it was higher and PS3 when it was higher didn't peak that high.  Even further top brands don't peak as high because they don't have that mainstream base behind them as strongly as the top brand.  So there's a lot of reasons I have it where its at but once again I don't deny the possibility of having a high peak week.  Main reason for that is purely because FF13 releases that week.

ha ha if u noticed i also said it would happen last year in the countdown

u see i know the universe well and i know it wont let me down two times in a row lighting doesnt strike in the same spot twice

i see it this way if the 360 was able to hit 880k last year a system that doesnt have a strong following in EU and had very little support in JP wen it hit that #

then the ps3 this year should have the same if not higher (if u look at yoy the ps3 is in line and a bit higher than the 360 this time last year WW) WW numbers

so asuming that it should match the 360s 880k of last + the fact that FF13 and the FF13 ps3 bundle come out on that week PS3 well do better than the 360 did last year in EU and for now looks like the dominate HD console in NA  (and no it was no coincidence FF13 comes out that week it was all plan out by the universe) another 120k from one of these 3 regions on that week on top of that 880k to me at least sounds achievable  

nice post.

It will be hard, PS3 isn't at $199

peaking early is a fear that I had, but sales are high over last year by a lot already, its been weeks since the price cut.

Lets just put it this way.....my whole 900K figure is hinged on the hope of FF13 & its bundle doing like 200K in Japan that week!

Yes I would say FF13 effectiveness will have a lot to do with it.  Personally I think I've under estimated it a little bit (originally had numbers at about 800,000) but hey what ya gonna do about it haha.  Will be an interesting week eh.

don't forget to update this twroo!

@theprof00

Yes I asked about that via PM.... at the moment I have put it in as 795, 440, 290 for weeks 8,9,10

If you truely intended it to be 795, 290, 440 then I can change it to that (but I have to ask why you would have it in that order)

^ temporary economic downfall?

oh im sorry, i didn't get the pm,
it's just +150 to my original, i must have done the math wrong and not added the 150 to 290

nevermind, you did it right

it was at 140 for week 10 before

ok sorry its
645 540 290
+150 to all
so
795 690 and 440

I have updated the tables on the front page properly now.... Also added the totals/largest week table back, this time with an average row.... so you can see what the average prediction is between us 24 predictors (or 23 for handhelds)