darthdevidem01 said:
Zucas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
@zucas
yeah I agree with you
but the thing is that over the last 2 months PS3 has shocked & awed us with its numbers, maybe some people int hat mindset got a little hyper & made that leap
I mean even I predicted 900K for the top week but looking at last years sales in the same week, expecting increases in EU/NA & a 100K + increase in Japan, 900K seemed realistic |
Well it might seem realistic but that's still a long shot. 360 with strong sales throughout the world (except for Japan) couldn't even come close with a $200 pricetag and Gears of War 2. Not to mention 360 was constantly going up since it's pricedrop with never a drop in between. Certainly not the case with PS3 who has fallen (for the most part since it's pricedrop). Although it will start getting those increases it isn't necessarily following traditional trends right now. So it's really hard to put it on a similar basis from that of last year or really any launch before it. We might start seeing it have traditional increases with this upcoming week of sales data or it might wait for time to actually catch up with it. If it's the latter then it's the thing I've mentioned about "peaking before the holiday season occurs" which leads to smaller increases for holiday sales.
Really PS3 is quite the tricky case. We are all pretty sure it's going to do pretty well (at least compared to last year) but how well is the big question. My guess is quite the safe guess because I really have no earthly idea. But based off trends, some historical data, and some educated guesses I think I've found something that seems reasonable. Peak week is kinda controversial for me but one of the main reasons I have it a little lower than most is because usually more expensive systems don't peak as high. Look at trends and you'll notice that 360 when it was higher and PS3 when it was higher didn't peak that high. Even further top brands don't peak as high because they don't have that mainstream base behind them as strongly as the top brand. So there's a lot of reasons I have it where its at but once again I don't deny the possibility of having a high peak week. Main reason for that is purely because FF13 releases that week.
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nice post.
It will be hard, PS3 isn't at $199
peaking early is a fear that I had, but sales are high over last year by a lot already, its been weeks since the price cut.
Lets just put it this way.....my whole 900K figure is hinged on the hope of FF13 & its bundle doing like 200K in Japan that week!
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Yes I would say FF13 effectiveness will have a lot to do with it. Personally I think I've under estimated it a little bit (originally had numbers at about 800,000) but hey what ya gonna do about it haha. Will be an interesting week eh.
