@ Buzzi no, it is only for titles released in October through December (Q4 2009). So it is only top 5 holiday titles.
@koffieboon, I had forgotten about FFXIII and thought that there was a very small chance that Ninja Gaiden could have taken the 5th spot. Either way there weren't many games to add to the chart yet, and Ninja Gaiden did well enough that I will leave it in there until the other bigger titles bump it out.

I'm not completely certain I understood the question. Essentially, it's the top 5 sellers on each machine, that released in Oct-Dec 2009, right?

Well, the most logical top 5s would be

Wii: Wii Fit +, Mario & Sonic at the Winter Olympics, New Super Mario Bros. Those are the three large, then there's CoD: MW:R, and there's really nothing other major stuff.

Ps3: Fifa 10, Tekken 6, Modern Warfare 2, Assassin's Creed II, Final Fantasy XIII

X360: Modern Wafare 2, Tekken 6, Assassin's Creed II, Left 4 Dead 2, Fifa 09, Forza 3

So, how much will these titles sell?

Well, I'm generally plain awful at this. I think I finished 2nd last the last time I did this (TWRoO's last 10 weeks of the year thread) out of 10 people. Not good.

Anyway, I'll give it a shot.

Wii:

Wii Fit + opened with  330K in Japan, and should have a good million there, at the very least. 1-1.5 million seems a fair bet. If it manages Wii Fit's sales in Others (from 08), that's 2.5 million, and 2.4 million in Americas.

That would lead me to a ~ 6 million prediction. It depends a lot on the launches, but I'd say 5-7 million for it.

Actually, nevermind that. I'll be doing this another way.

Here are the sales of the top Wii titles for the same period last year.

Mario Kart Wii: 5.14 million

Wii Fit: 5.6 million

People seem to believe that New Super Mario Bros will be on size with Mario Kart. At this time, Mario Kart had been on the market for 6 months! I cannot imagine NSMB Wii selling less than that. 5-7 million.

 Wii Fit + is essentially in a Wii Fit-ish situation. It's a sequel, so it has competition in Wii Fit, and the "fad" is somewhat over. Still, seeing as it is far cheaper (for those who own a balance board), it may very well equal Wii Fit. My above prediction seems logical. 5-7 million.

Mario & Sonic @ the Olympic Games sold 2.7 million in 9 weeks in 2007. This one could exceed that, but I'd say ~3 million.

And then, the Wii doesn't really have anything that's truly 1 million +. All in all, I'd say that ~ 15 million for the Wii's top 5 seems correct.

X360's top sellers last holiday:

Gears of War 2 - 4.3 million

CoW: WaW - 4.3 million

Fable 2 - 2.4 million

Left 4 Dead - 1.4 million

And the year before

Modern Warfare 1 - 4.1 million

Assassin's Creed 1 - 3 million

Forza 2 - 2.2 million (had been out for 20 weeks already)

So for the 09 ones, I'd say that

Modern Warfare 2 could sell anywhere between 4 and 5 million.

Assassin's Creed 2 should sell around 3 million.

Fifa 10 should sell around 2 million

Forza 3, I have no idea. 2 million?

Left 4 Dead 2 is also likely to sell ~ 2 million, but perhaps on the short side of that.

Tekken 6? I have no stinking clue.

So, I have the X360's holiday at 13-14 million. However, that depends on how much Tekken 6 sells.

Ps3's best selling 08 titles:

Fifa 09: 1.8 million

CoD: WaW: 2.5 million

LBP: 1.8 million

And the year before that

Assassin's Creed: 1.8 million

CoD 4: 1.9 million

So for the current holiday, a logical assumption would be

Fifa 10 - 2.5 million. It started better than its 09 counterpart, so it's only logical it will sell more.

MW2 - around 3 million. A slight increase over the previous installment.

AC2 - around 2.5 million.

Final Fantasy 13 - Around 1.5-2 million. It's the first 2 weeks in Japan only.

Tekken 6 - I have no idea. The series have generally sold ~ 3-4 million, apart from tekken 3 which sold 7 million, so a 1.5 million opening wouldn't be perfectly unreasonable for 2 months in a holiday quarter.

So, my prediction is thus 11-12 million for the Ps3.

I forgot Uncharted 2! It should fit in somewhere here, with Tekken 6 ish sales. If my Tekken 6 prediction is way off, pretend I wrote Uncharted 2.

This post is long. Only read it if you're up to reading something long (I love how I put this at the end).

Us have the stronger software sales during Christmas period and I believe that will give the X360 a big boost; Wii hasn't got enough big titles: Wii Fit+ and NSMB will sell millions but the effect will be more in the long run. Ps3 has FFXIII in Japan but that game can't sell more then 2m I think (even though I'd love it to sell 10m but that's impossible) and games with worldwide realese (Tekken 6) should sell more.
Multiplat games such as MW2 and AC2 should help counterbalance the effect of Wii realeses and since the Xbox360 will get more benefit from them, adding titles such as Forza and Left 4 Dead should put the 360 in first place (of course software wise).
So, it will be really really close, but I'd say: Xbox 360>Wii>Ps3

Final Fantasy XIII woooppp,Uncharted 2 woooppp,GoW collection wooopp

Pineapple, yep that is the question of this thread. Nice post, well thought out.

Well I can talk about the PS3 and 360

For the 360 we have:
a lot from Modern Warfare 2 and Asssassin's Creed 2, in fact the former will sell enough to keep the 360 on top from the PS3, just
For the PS3 we have:
3m from MW 2, 2.5m from AC 2, 2m from Uncharted 2, 2m from FIFA 10 and 1m from FF XIII

Wii --- NSMB Wii, Wii Fit+, Mario & Sonic @ Olympic Winter Games
don't know much about another Wii big titles launch this holiday...

XB360 --- MW2, FM3, AC2, L4D2, FIFA 10, TEKKEN 6

PS3 --- MW2, AC2, U2, FF XIII, FIFA 10, TEKKEN 6

Will Tekken 6 really be that big? There hasn't been much hype for it, and it is only launching in a few weeks

I know you've done a similar thread for DS vs PSP already, but personally I feel the whole premise of your question makes it quite meaningless. If some 1 year old title still manages to sell a few million copies this holiday it is a big holiday title regardless of its earlier release date.

PES10 will outsell Tekken on PS3.