I'm not completely certain I understood the question. Essentially, it's the top 5 sellers on each machine, that released in Oct-Dec 2009, right?
Well, the most logical top 5s would be
Wii: Wii Fit +, Mario & Sonic at the Winter Olympics, New Super Mario Bros. Those are the three large, then there's CoD: MW:R, and there's really nothing other major stuff.
Ps3: Fifa 10, Tekken 6, Modern Warfare 2, Assassin's Creed II, Final Fantasy XIII
X360: Modern Wafare 2, Tekken 6, Assassin's Creed II, Left 4 Dead 2, Fifa 09, Forza 3
So, how much will these titles sell?
Well, I'm generally plain awful at this. I think I finished 2nd last the last time I did this (TWRoO's last 10 weeks of the year thread) out of 10 people. Not good.
Anyway, I'll give it a shot.
Wii:
Wii Fit + opened with 330K in Japan, and should have a good million there, at the very least. 1-1.5 million seems a fair bet. If it manages Wii Fit's sales in Others (from 08), that's 2.5 million, and 2.4 million in Americas.
That would lead me to a ~ 6 million prediction. It depends a lot on the launches, but I'd say 5-7 million for it.
Actually, nevermind that. I'll be doing this another way.
Here are the sales of the top Wii titles for the same period last year.
Mario Kart Wii: 5.14 million
Wii Fit: 5.6 million
People seem to believe that New Super Mario Bros will be on size with Mario Kart. At this time, Mario Kart had been on the market for 6 months! I cannot imagine NSMB Wii selling less than that. 5-7 million.
Wii Fit + is essentially in a Wii Fit-ish situation. It's a sequel, so it has competition in Wii Fit, and the "fad" is somewhat over. Still, seeing as it is far cheaper (for those who own a balance board), it may very well equal Wii Fit. My above prediction seems logical. 5-7 million.
Mario & Sonic @ the Olympic Games sold 2.7 million in 9 weeks in 2007. This one could exceed that, but I'd say ~3 million.
And then, the Wii doesn't really have anything that's truly 1 million +. All in all, I'd say that ~ 15 million for the Wii's top 5 seems correct.
X360's top sellers last holiday:
Gears of War 2 - 4.3 million
CoW: WaW - 4.3 million
Fable 2 - 2.4 million
Left 4 Dead - 1.4 million
And the year before
Modern Warfare 1 - 4.1 million
Assassin's Creed 1 - 3 million
Forza 2 - 2.2 million (had been out for 20 weeks already)
So for the 09 ones, I'd say that
Modern Warfare 2 could sell anywhere between 4 and 5 million.
Assassin's Creed 2 should sell around 3 million.
Fifa 10 should sell around 2 million
Forza 3, I have no idea. 2 million?
Left 4 Dead 2 is also likely to sell ~ 2 million, but perhaps on the short side of that.
Tekken 6? I have no stinking clue.
So, I have the X360's holiday at 13-14 million. However, that depends on how much Tekken 6 sells.
Ps3's best selling 08 titles:
Fifa 09: 1.8 million
CoD: WaW: 2.5 million
LBP: 1.8 million
And the year before that
Assassin's Creed: 1.8 million
CoD 4: 1.9 million
So for the current holiday, a logical assumption would be
Fifa 10 - 2.5 million. It started better than its 09 counterpart, so it's only logical it will sell more.
MW2 - around 3 million. A slight increase over the previous installment.
AC2 - around 2.5 million.
Final Fantasy 13 - Around 1.5-2 million. It's the first 2 weeks in Japan only.
Tekken 6 - I have no idea. The series have generally sold ~ 3-4 million, apart from tekken 3 which sold 7 million, so a 1.5 million opening wouldn't be perfectly unreasonable for 2 months in a holiday quarter.
So, my prediction is thus 11-12 million for the Ps3.
I forgot Uncharted 2! It should fit in somewhere here, with Tekken 6 ish sales. If my Tekken 6 prediction is way off, pretend I wrote Uncharted 2.
This post is long. Only read it if you're up to reading something long (I love how I put this at the end).
Essay Pro