Natal may have some succes as for the "Wand" I'm not sure. It's the same concept as a Wiimote so that may throw alot of people off say they would want a Wii instead because it's more "family friendly". MS is trying to get in on them too, look at their new points cards and ads with the Xbox 360 in it. Sony made itself the "Highend" system creater so it has a more mechanical feel to it. It's easy to brainwash casual customers with plain white backrounds and family friendly ads.

Too early to say. Seriously.

If you are talking about the actual sales & # of game support, definitely Sony Wand or Natal will not match up with Wii. That's no question and so obvious. But I don't think that will be called a failure because Sony and MS should know about it.

So what's their intention?

My speculation is
1. Providing consumers options
2. Taking customers away from Wii

By providing the option of motion control, Sony or MS users can now enjoy the experience. But I believe the power is actually on #2. If Sony get it right, they may have more accurate control than even Wii Motion +. Due to its similarity with Wii motion control, porting games from Wii seems a possibility. Natal seems to have a great potential for whole body fitness. As fitness seems one of the strongest selling point of Wii, Natal may advertise to provide even better fitness experience.

The end result will be Sony and MS can now advertise that they provide similar (probably they will say better) motion experience on their platform in addition to better traditional game selections.

I believe such advertisement will easily make people think twice before grabbing Wii. So sales of Sony Wand or Natal will not match with what Wii have done so far, but they will provide a way to further slow down Wii, and Sony and MS can focus on continue providing their high quality hardcore games.

"It's easy to brainwash casual customers with plain white backrounds and family friendly ads."

BS. You don't make those consumers buy your product. You make a product they want to buy.

I'd argue it's actually a LOT harder to get casual consumers to buy your product then Hardcore ones.

Afterall hardcore gamers are the ones that buy consoles... every generation... and one would think buy more games on average.

It's harder to win over casual gamers which is something that should be common sense but largely ignored because it flies in the face of feeling elitist when it turn out you actually have the lower standards.

Casual gamers actually have higher standards then hardcore gamers.  They're just different ones. 

Hardcore gamers will buy what they see as the best games... but you don't have to target games so much at them but make them the best.  They're hooked... they're the kind of people buying Mediocre shooters with gimics like Time Shift or Dark Sector just because they're hooked and there isn't anything else on the schedule.

Casuals, you have to target them specifically.  They won't stand for something they see as mediocre because they have other interets they like as much if not more.  You need to grab their attention.

I think Natal has better chance: It is a unique concept.

Sony wand is an enhanced copycat of the Wii-mote + nunchuk.... a bit poor to me...

OF COURSE! 

This is why casual gamers are already buying all three consoles, with dozens of games a year, and every single company in the industry is thriving with the profits coming from them!  They just needed to tell them to buy their stuff! 

Great post; very insightful.

I think Natal will do great, but I have my doubts for the PS wand. The latter just looks like a hastily-put-together knock off of the Wiimote and a desperate response to the hype Natal's generating.

I hope they fail since i don't really care for motion controls at all. As long as developers keep giving us the option to play with analog controller i'm happi and will continue gaming :)