If you are talking about the actual sales & # of game support, definitely Sony Wand or Natal will not match up with Wii. That's no question and so obvious. But I don't think that will be called a failure because Sony and MS should know about it.
So what's their intention?
My speculation is
1. Providing consumers options
2. Taking customers away from Wii
By providing the option of motion control, Sony or MS users can now enjoy the experience. But I believe the power is actually on #2. If Sony get it right, they may have more accurate control than even Wii Motion +. Due to its similarity with Wii motion control, porting games from Wii seems a possibility. Natal seems to have a great potential for whole body fitness. As fitness seems one of the strongest selling point of Wii, Natal may advertise to provide even better fitness experience.
The end result will be Sony and MS can now advertise that they provide similar (probably they will say better) motion experience on their platform in addition to better traditional game selections.
I believe such advertisement will easily make people think twice before grabbing Wii. So sales of Sony Wand or Natal will not match with what Wii have done so far, but they will provide a way to further slow down Wii, and Sony and MS can focus on continue providing their high quality hardcore games.
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