Looking at the numbers 360 and PS3 sold last year: 5,534,032 and 3,658,321, I feel that the PS3 and 360 are going to switch those numbers this year.

@icyedge: Never underestimate the power of the holidays.

@thismeintiel: I'm sure something similar will happen.  The holiday season following the holiday season following a price cut will always result in pretty low sales.  The ps3 performed much worse in 2008 than it did in 2007.  The 360 will also be down heavily year over year now that we're comparing it to post-price cut figures from last year.  Conversely, the ps3's recent price cut will have it up heavily year over year, much like the 360 was up YoY at this time last year.

You did far more research than I did. I didn't realize the 360 price drop happened on the 5th of September, and that sales after the price drop weren't as strong as the PS3's sales after the price drop. Taking that into account, PS3 is probably going to have a far better holiday season than anyone is currently expecting, 7 million probably isn't out of the question.

PS3 would have to sell 500k every week... eh.. give or take... >_> so... no?..

I expect 33.5 million by the year's end.

You're welcome. Some people jumped as if you were ranting, but 30M is a sensible goal, not totally easy, but the crude numbers demonstrate it's possible. As you pointed out, the weeks before BF are crucial, the better PS3 can do, the easier it will be after to reach that goal. As makingmusic476 showed using last year's charts, very good sales performance the holiday after a cut aren't so difficult, and PS3 started doing better than XB360 did in the period between the cut and BF. And despite starting slow after the cut, XB360 did very well last Xmas, averaging more than 600k/week WW in the five weeks from the BF 2008 to the Xmas 2008 ones, this should furtherly show that more than 3M in those 5 weeks aren't an outlandish hope.

Edit: Obviously good games are needed, but even withoout GT5 PS3 offer is still good for this Autumn and Xmas.

I think it could get close, but unfortunatly I don't think that system has that strong of a line-up to push nearly 4 million units in a 5 and a half week span.

Of course it might get a big boost when games like Uncharted 2, Tekken 6, Modern Warfare 2, Assassin's Creed II and Final Fantasy XIII release, but at this point it's nearly impossible to estimate what that impact would be.

WTF??? lol, you didnt get my point. I was saying that the PS3 is sure to get 30M with christmas.

@Makingmusic

I agree.
That's pretty much what I was trying to say but you summed it up better than I did.
The PS3 is proving it has way more momentum than the 360 did last year and I believe it will be perform way better than the 360 did last year.

@ Alby

Even without GT5 it has a pretty good line-up. At least good enough to persuade new owners to buy a game or two and possibly move a little hardware.

The PS3 passed 30 million sold with a week to spare.

Nicely done Sony.