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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

masterb8tr on 21 November 2009

Lol why does it say -1333 replies since i last entered the thread:P



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Kenology on 21 November 2009
kowenicki said:
does this even matter?

Will it be some kind of victory for the PS3 to get to 5m before the Wii gets to 10m?

So true.  To the winner goes bragging rights for a prediction that ended up being correct.  It's not like it changes anything.



Xxain on 21 November 2009

whos currently winning?



Yakuzaice on 21 November 2009
Xxain said:
whos currently winning?

If you are talking about ioi and zorro, they've both been off by a lot.  I suppose you could say zorro is winning since he expected the PS3 to outsell the Wii, while ioi had expected the wii to pretty much take every week since october.

As far as the gap, zorro was pretty close.  The PS3 is currently ahead by almost 80k.  Zorro had expected it to be ahead by 55k, while ioi expected the Wii to be ahead by 96k.  For absolute numbers, they were both expected much higher for Wii, while Zorro was high and ioi was low on PS3.

(I was going based on the original predictions)

Or you could just look at this lol http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=88468&page=1



ViolentPhlegm on 21 November 2009

Actually, PS3 started the race with a 60k head start so is now ahead by 138k, having gained 78k over the race period.

The latest update was on Thursday. If you want to see the full set of numbers, go back a few pages and look for my post with the chart.



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Tecmo on 22 November 2009

while it looks like PS3 right now, I'm going to have to go with the Wii on this one....I think Wii will really pick up for Christmas and PS3, while it will continue to sell well, I don't think it will hold the momentum as good as the Wii can and will




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saicho on 22 November 2009
ZorroX said:

@Noobie, it`s hard to say how much will PS3 sell in first half of 2010, since there is still unknown when most 2010 games will be released.

But i know, that in 2008 after 80GB GT5P bundle release sales dropped to around 20k level in November.
And this year, PS3 is holding stable at 30k+ levels.
That`s why i think PS3 sales will stabilize at 30k+ for most of time during 2010.

2010 first part? I think ps3 will do 1M+.

Before any bet is placed, I'm wondering whether you would think you win the bet as long as PS3 sells 800K in the period since you have a 20% of margin of error for your prediction.

1M+ would mean more than 1 million, right?



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

peachbuggy on 22 November 2009

What's the point in making predictions then giving yourself a 20% margin of error? That gives you such a broad band of figures it hardly seems worth making a prediction.



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jneul on 23 November 2009

the whole point is to show their theory... it does not matter about margin of error

you sound upset, it's just a prediction....



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ZorroX on 23 November 2009
peachbuggy said:
What's the point in making predictions then giving yourself a 20% margin of error? That gives you such a broad band of figures it hardly seems worth making a prediction.
bat-ON said:
NPD vs VGC

Round One, Hardware

PlayStation 2 146.0K vs 118.3K - Result = - 27.7k (Error - 19%)
PlayStation 3 491.8K vs 429.6K - Result = - 63.2 K (Error - 13%)
PSP 190.4K vs 164.3K - Result = - 26.1K (Error - 14%)
Xbox 360 352.6K vs 352.1K - Result = -0.5K (Error 0%)
Wii 462.8K vs 395.7K - Result = - 67.1K (Error - 14%)
Nintendo DS 524.2K vs 637.3 - Result = + 113.1 (Error + 21%)

Round 2, Software

HALO 3: ODST 1.52M vs 1.740 Result = + 220K (Error + 14%)
WII SPORTS RESORT 442.9K vs 526k Result = + 83.1K (Error + 19%)
MADDEN NFL 10 360 289.6K vs 245.8k Result = - 43.8K (Error - 15%)
MARIO & LUIGI: 258.1K vs 186k Result = - 72K (Error - 28%)
THE BEATLES:ROCK BAND* 360 254.0K 344K Result = +90K (Error + 35%)
MADDEN NFL 10 PS3 246.5K vs 200K Result = - 46.5K (Error - 19%)
MARVEL:ULTIMATE ALLIANCE 2 360 236.0K vs 279k = + 43k (Error + 18%)
BATMAN:ARKHAM ASYLUM* PS3 212.5K vs 260K = + 47.5K (Error + 22%)
GUITAR HERO 5* 360 210.8K vs 280K = + 69.2K (Error + 32%)
THE BEATLES:ROCK BAND* WII 208.6K vs 365K = + 156.4K (Error +75%)

The difference is most of the time around 15-20% in hardware and 20-25% in software.

Okey..

saicho said:
ZorroX said:

@Noobie, it`s hard to say how much will PS3 sell in first half of 2010, since there is still unknown when most 2010 games will be released.

But i know, that in 2008 after 80GB GT5P bundle release sales dropped to around 20k level in November.
And this year, PS3 is holding stable at 30k+ levels.
That`s why i think PS3 sales will stabilize at 30k+ for most of time during 2010.

2010 first part? I think ps3 will do 1M+.

Before any bet is placed, I'm wondering whether you would think you win the bet as long as PS3 sells 800K in the period since you have a 20% of margin of error for your prediction.

1M+ would mean more than 1 million, right?

Before i answer your question, do i have to make a bet on any prediction that i make? Anyway, since there are 4 trackers for Japan, i think everything above 950k would be considered close to 1M+.