After the FFX111 boost in Japan and in January when the holiday boost is over i expect the PS3 to start falling.

^Have you seen what PS3 games are coming in Japan during January-March?

Anyway, time will show, but i think PS3 will stabilize at 30k+ for the most of time during 2010.
I also expect Wii sales to go to PS3 levels, when PS3 cost 40k yen. Because, i think Wii already saturated Japan market at some point.
Now it`s PS3 showtime!

I think it will be better if u give some PS3 estimates for Jan - June 2010 than fighting over how many weeks it will dip below 25,291... :D come on these 1 week sales doesnt matter to many rather its how much Sony is going to sell in a Quarter or in a Half yr.. SO the first Six months sales for PS3 in the previous yrs is:
Yr --- Sales
2007 ----- 515k
2008 ----- 560k
2009 ----- 580k
2010 ----- ??????

So make ur prediction how much it will seel in 2010... if it sells above 30k on average than in 26 weeks it should sell 30k X 26 + 100k for various game booasts... which is around 880k.. So who is saying it is going to sell above 900k or even 800k in first half of 2010 n who believes it will sell lesser than 800k in first six months..

Make a bet n settle this issue for next six months. :P

i think ps3, by about 200k

lol.  How much do you think Wii controllers cost to produce exactly?  Can you finish while you're at it?

No, I'm talking per unit.  Nintendo's gone on record saying the only time they took a loss on GameCube was when they first dropped to $99 in spring 2003, but by the next quarter they were turning a profit on every GC sold.

Wii uses repurposed upclocked GameCube spec, the chipset is undoubtedly dirt cheap by now and nothing else in the package (slot DVD drive, WiFi chip, 512MB flash, accelorometers, 64MB GDDR3RAM, power supply, plastic case, Wii Sports, AV cables, LED) is near pricey.  iSuppli's teardown placed Wii's production cost around $158 way back at launch in 2006, by now it's going to be dramatically less due to volumes alone.  Wii might even be cheaper to produce than the PSP GO even (less memory, no screen, similar spec).

Hopefully it goes as well as that PSP GO flopping one.  2nd shipment in 2010 looking more and more likely. ;)

It should be a given that FF XIII will boost PS3 sales in Japan when taking the consol's lack of RPGs directed at the Japanese market into consideration, though the lack of a promise to bring even more RPGs onto the console undoubtedly will negate some of that FF XIII momentum.

A personal guess why the PS3 has been fairing so badly in Japan(apart from price point), is that the jump in hardware hasn't improved the experience of Japanese RPGs, it's pretty much still on the level of PS2 ,Wii, DS and PSP.

Sony can hope that FF XIII will change this and legitimize the PS3(and the xBox 360) as an RPG platform.

i think the ps3 will reach 5million first.

There was a thread a little while ago where someone broke down the estimated cost of all the Wii components. I'll see if I can find it.

@Noobie, it`s hard to say how much will PS3 sell in first half of 2010, since there is still unknown when most 2010 games will be released.

But i know, that in 2008 after 80GB GT5P bundle release sales dropped to around 20k level in November.
And this year, PS3 is holding stable at 30k+ levels.
That`s why i think PS3 sales will stabilize at 30k+ for most of time during 2010.

2010 first part? I think ps3 will do 1M+.

Yes, if one can get one's head out of the console wars. This is a competition between who made the best prediction, and not the consoles.