@Avinash_Tyagi

maybe we dont need a discussion anymore,since according to your logic,follow what ioi said was definitely correct,

so?forget about discussion.

Haha, there's no rule against disagreeing with ioi's predictions - he's just so frequently right that it's kindda silly.

I don't think the PS3 has a chance. It will outsell the Wii next week, FFXIII release week and GT5 release week. The Wii should take all the rest

Brett, I'm not sure how this 10 million / 5 million race will play out, but do you really think Wii will have a better 2009 holiday than 2008 in Japan? Regardless of the price cut and game lineup, surely the dramatically lower sales during the year indicate a serious saturation issue, no? Couple that with this being the first holiday that the Wii has had any serious competition from PS3 and I can't see how it will not experience a decline.

What am I missing?

  Maybe the fact that there have been far fewer big games this year than last, duh

But this fall and winter is going to see a lot of big games on the Wii

I'd have thought Wii. PS3 only chance is if weekly sales remain closer than I'm expecting them to.

Reading back through these posts, I now vote PS3 sells its 1.5 million first. ZorroX's numbers tell the tale: unless there is a dramatic increase in Wii sales over the next six months (and not just over current numbers but actually a 35% increase over the October to March period from a year ago), Wii won't reach it's target until well into 2010. In the mean time both FFXIII and GT5 will release on PS3; both of which are the first "real" games for their respective franchises this generation.

NSMBW will be huge obviously but I don't foresee the effect on hardware that the PS3's blockbusters will have. This is basically limited to Mario fans who feel that NSMBW + SMG makes the Wii worth owning but not SMG on its own. A bizarre niche among Mario fans, I'd say.

I think it is likely that Wii will outsell PS3 in the upcoming weeks (although I think it will mostly be close), but if ZorroX's numbers are correct, then this isn't a short-term battle and there seem to be more hardware-pushing events for the PS3 long-term.

Your argument is horribly flawed, first off SMG fans and NSMB fans don't necessarily overlap, one is 3D Mario the other is 2D Mario, 2D Mario sells much better than 3D Mario, so there are millions who buy 2D Mario, but would never buy a 3D Mario, just compare NSMB DS sales to SMG sales, in fact 2D Mario is a much better hardware mover than 3D Mario.

Wii's software lineup for the rest of 2009 in Japan is much stronger than last year and stronger than the PS3's lineup, so it can easily outsell the PS3.

Contrary to what you may believe, GT5 and FF13 aren't going to be big sellers in Japan, Famitsu is predicting 1.5 million lifetime sales in japan for FF13, and the GT series has never been huge in Japan, its much bigger in western markets, the highest selling GT in Japan, was the first one on the PS1, for 2.55 Million, since then its been in decline, on the PS2 its max was 1.89, PS3 has a much smaller base than the PS2, so maybe 1.5 million tops for GT5, heck NSMB Wii can sell more than both of them combined in Japan.

To drive home the point about 2D vs. 3D Mario, here is the comparison of japanese sales of NSMB vs. Galaxy

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=Japan&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100

ill go with the gut and say ps3

I l say ps3