Reading back through these posts, I now vote PS3 sells its 1.5 million first. ZorroX's numbers tell the tale: unless there is a dramatic increase in Wii sales over the next six months (and not just over current numbers but actually a 35% increase over the October to March period from a year ago), Wii won't reach it's target until well into 2010. In the mean time both FFXIII and GT5 will release on PS3; both of which are the first "real" games for their respective franchises this generation.
NSMBW will be huge obviously but I don't foresee the effect on hardware that the PS3's blockbusters will have. This is basically limited to Mario fans who feel that NSMBW + SMG makes the Wii worth owning but not SMG on its own. A bizarre niche among Mario fans, I'd say.
I think it is likely that Wii will outsell PS3 in the upcoming weeks (although I think it will mostly be close), but if ZorroX's numbers are correct, then this isn't a short-term battle and there seem to be more hardware-pushing events for the PS3 long-term.
