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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

RageBot on 18 November 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

[...]

Can't you read? I wrote Wii already had "several Mario games", NOT "several 2D Mario Platformers". Are you really persuaded die-hard Mario fans are refusing to buy a Wii until a 2D Mario platformer is released? Wasn't any previous Wii Mario game enough to make them buy the console? How many die-hard Mario and Nintendo fans do you know that won't buy a Wii until NSMBW is released?

Obviously, like any big game, it will move some HW sales, but I wouldn't expect miracles. I'm not 100% sure, anyhow, like I wrote too, I don't know Japan, so there could be something I don't know in NSMBW that would trigger Japan sales, but I'm pretty sure It won't be Mario minions waiting for it to buy a Wii.


  Are you capable of simple reasoning, the point is that 2D Mario is very different beast than 3D Mario, with very different appeal, 2D gaming has a very different appeal than 3D gaming.

You really don't get it do you?  Mario Kart is not the same thing as NSMB, Galaxy is not the same thing, Mario Party is not, nor is Mario tennis or Mario Golf or any of the other Mario games

Slapping Mario on the label doesn't mean the games appeal to the same people,  Kart is a racer, Galaxy is a 3D platformer, Smash is a Fighter, Golf and tennis and strikers and the other sports games are sports games, those are all different genres, they don't have the same people who like them.

Simple reasoning? Is it reasonable to expect an awful lot of gamers, btw mostly big Mario and Nintendo fans, refusing to buy a Wii until a 2D Mario platformer is released? I keep on thinking the game will sell very well, but I don't expect it to be the best HW seller.

Slapping Mario on a single game won't lure every Mario fan, but having already slapped Mario on a lot of different games, of which 3 sold more than 6million and another one more than 18million should have already persuaded the vast majority of Mario fans, I seriously doubt there are still so many 2D Mario-only fans still without a Wii around.

Anyhow, we'll know quite soon...

 

Yes, it makes sense since that last 2D Mario was released 18 years ago, and there was no real 2D Mario Platformer for their last two consoles.

It won't sell 10m, but it will sell 4-6 mil , for a long period.



Bet with Dr.A.Peter.Nintendo that Super Mario Galaxy 2 won't sell 15 million copies up to six months after it's release, the winner will get Avatar control for a week and signature control for a month.

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Alby_da_Wolf on 18 November 2009

@Avinash_Tyagi:
I didn't dare predicting overwhelming HW sales for FFXIII either. But at least FFXIII is the first of its series on PS3 and it's released the first Xmas after PS3 got its Slim version and its first really reasonable list price.
Next week we'll be able to see if this week Mario moved much HW in America, but BF's imminence with its usual sales increase will prevent us to tell it exactly, and Japan is different from America too.



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jarrod on 18 November 2009
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ChrisIsNotSexy said:

I see the Ps3 going 4 million+ after holidays.

Even lifetime, that seems a bit tough.  I mean, it's only selling about as well as a "failed" Wii in it's absolute best year, I'm not sure you can really expect the machine to double it's userbase after 3 years on market.  Saturn didn't, N64 didn't, GameCube didn't, and those are the platforms whose JP sales align most closely with PS3 (GC slightly under, N64/SS a bit ahead).

FFXIII is PS3's biggest game, I'm not sure there's anything possible on the horizon that to keep it from being downhill afterwards.  Maybe FFXV?  It's not getting DQ or MH...

Actually, PS3 will be 4M+ already by the end of November and probably 4.5M+ by the end of this year.

Saturn, N64, GC didn`t have such great 3rd party support as PS3 has. For 2010 alone:

FFXIV, SO4 International, Front Mission Evolved, Yakuza 4, Ar Tonelico 3, Trinity: Zill'Ol, Nier, Lost Planet 2, Dead Rising 2, Super Street Fighter 4, Metal Gear Solid Rising, Sengoku Basara 3, Castlevania: Lords of Shadows, Dinasty Warriors: Troy, First of the North Star, End of Eternity, FFXIIIv, White Album, Last Rebellion, Quantum Theory, RE5: Alternate Edition.

And that are only announced games. Not to mention 1st and 2nd party PS3 games. GT5 also will keep PS3 momentum.

Sorry, I think I misread the original statement... I thought he meant PS3 would go on to sell 4+ million after 2009, not that the install base would be 4+ million when the year ends.  Being between 4-4.5m this year is pretty much expected, I agree with that.

Saturn also had pretty good 3rd party support in Japan (from Capcom, Konami, SNK, ESP and Bandai especially).  Saturn, N64 and GC also all had far stronger 1st party support than PS3 does.   GT5's a wildcard, but it's not on level with FFXIII, and neither is anything else coming to PS3... really, it's just downhill after December...



jarrod on 18 November 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
@Avinash_Tyagi:
I didn't dare predicting overwhelming HW sales for FFXIII either. But at least FFXIII is the first of its series on PS3

Technically, the ACFFVIII BD + the FFXIII demo would be the first release of the series on PS3 (last March).  And that pushed some decent hardware iirc.



Alby_da_Wolf on 18 November 2009

^^
Yes, let's insteaad say the first big full and original game release of the series.

@RageBot: of course, as I wrote, I totally agree that it will sell tons of SW, for the reasons you and Avinash give, I'm just not so sure about HW sales, besides a bump that, bigger or smaller, every good and successful game produce.
Obviously, though, laying an important step towards Wii games library completeness, its immediate effect will be bigger than that of other games, and it will allso give a decent long lasting effect, but it won't be the apocalyptic disruption someone likes to predict.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


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ZorroX on 18 November 2009
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ChrisIsNotSexy said:

I see the Ps3 going 4 million+ after holidays.

Even lifetime, that seems a bit tough.  I mean, it's only selling about as well as a "failed" Wii in it's absolute best year, I'm not sure you can really expect the machine to double it's userbase after 3 years on market.  Saturn didn't, N64 didn't, GameCube didn't, and those are the platforms whose JP sales align most closely with PS3 (GC slightly under, N64/SS a bit ahead).

FFXIII is PS3's biggest game, I'm not sure there's anything possible on the horizon that to keep it from being downhill afterwards.  Maybe FFXV?  It's not getting DQ or MH...

Actually, PS3 will be 4M+ already by the end of November and probably 4.5M+ by the end of this year.

Saturn, N64, GC didn`t have such great 3rd party support as PS3 has. For 2010 alone:

FFXIV, SO4 International, Front Mission Evolved, Yakuza 4, Ar Tonelico 3, Trinity: Zill'Ol, Nier, Lost Planet 2, Dead Rising 2, Super Street Fighter 4, Metal Gear Solid Rising, Sengoku Basara 3, Castlevania: Lords of Shadows, Dinasty Warriors: Troy, First of the North Star, End of Eternity, FFXIIIv, White Album, Last Rebellion, Quantum Theory, RE5: Alternate Edition.

And that are only announced games. Not to mention 1st and 2nd party PS3 games. GT5 also will keep PS3 momentum.

Sorry, I think I misread the original statement... I thought he meant PS3 would go on to sell 4+ million after 2009, not that the install base would be 4+ million when the year ends.  Being between 4-4.5m this year is pretty much expected, I agree with that.

Saturn also had pretty good 3rd party support in Japan (from Capcom, Konami, SNK, ESP and Bandai especially).  Saturn, N64 and GC also all had far stronger 1st party support than PS3 does.   GT5's a wildcard, but it's not on level with FFXIII, and neither is anything else coming to PS3... really, it's just downhill after December...

And after 2009 PS3 will sell 4M+ even before the end of 2012. Only thing, that was holding PS3 back was a price. Now price is affordable and sales have stabilized at 30k+. They are not going below that level for 90% of 2010.

Saturn didn`t have big hitters like FFVII, MGS and GT. All it had, was Sonic. That was not enough. Same goes for N64 and GC, only that they had Mario and less 3rd party support. PS3 has much stronger 1st/2nd party support than GC&N64 had combined.

In terms of 1st/2nd party support PS3 is above Saturn/N64/GC. In terms of 3rd party support PS3 is above Saturn/N64/GC. The only PS3 problem was a price.

PS3 will stabilize at 30k+ for rest 2010 because of games, that i listed above. There are over 20 3rd party games alone. PS3 practically will be getting a new game every 2 weeks. How can it decline??

Why i`m so confident in 2010 PS3 sales? 1 year ago PS3 sales in Japan went below 20k before holidays and after 80Gb bundled with GT5P model release. This year(in Autumn), PS3 sales stay strong around 30k+ level.



Noobie on 18 November 2009
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ChrisIsNotSexy said:

I see the Ps3 going 4 million+ after holidays.

Even lifetime, that seems a bit tough.  I mean, it's only selling about as well as a "failed" Wii in it's absolute best year, I'm not sure you can really expect the machine to double it's userbase after 3 years on market.  Saturn didn't, N64 didn't, GameCube didn't, and those are the platforms whose JP sales align most closely with PS3 (GC slightly under, N64/SS a bit ahead).

FFXIII is PS3's biggest game, I'm not sure there's anything possible on the horizon that to keep it from being downhill afterwards.  Maybe FFXV?  It's not getting DQ or MH...

Actually, PS3 will be 4M+ already by the end of November and probably 4.5M+ by the end of this year.

Saturn, N64, GC didn`t have such great 3rd party support as PS3 has. For 2010 alone:

FFXIV, SO4 International, Front Mission Evolved, Yakuza 4, Ar Tonelico 3, Trinity: Zill'Ol, Nier, Lost Planet 2, Dead Rising 2, Super Street Fighter 4, Metal Gear Solid Rising, Sengoku Basara 3, Castlevania: Lords of Shadows, Dinasty Warriors: Troy, First of the North Star, End of Eternity, FFXIIIv, White Album, Last Rebellion, Quantum Theory, RE5: Alternate Edition.

And that are only announced games. Not to mention 1st and 2nd party PS3 games. GT5 also will keep PS3 momentum.

Sorry, I think I misread the original statement... I thought he meant PS3 would go on to sell 4+ million after 2009, not that the install base would be 4+ million when the year ends.  Being between 4-4.5m this year is pretty much expected, I agree with that.

Saturn also had pretty good 3rd party support in Japan (from Capcom, Konami, SNK, ESP and Bandai especially).  Saturn, N64 and GC also all had far stronger 1st party support than PS3 does.   GT5's a wildcard, but it's not on level with FFXIII, and neither is anything else coming to PS3... really, it's just downhill after December...

And after 2009 PS3 will sell 4M+ even before the end of 2012. Only thing, that was holding PS3 back was a price. Now price is affordable and sales have stabilized at 30k+. They are not going below that level for 90% of 2010.

Saturn didn`t have big hitters like FFVII, MGS and GT. All it had, was Sonic. That was not enough. Same goes for N64 and GC, only that they had Mario and less 3rd party support. PS3 has much stronger 1st/2nd party support than GC&N64 had combined.

In terms of 1st/2nd party support PS3 is above Saturn/N64/GC. In terms of 3rd party support PS3 is above Saturn/N64/GC. The only PS3 problem was a price.

PS3 will stabilize at 30k+ for rest 2010 because of games, that i listed above. There are over 20 3rd party games alone. PS3 practically will be getting a new game every 2 weeks. How can it decline??

Why i`m so confident in 2010 PS3 sales? 1 year ago PS3 sales in Japan went below 20k before holidays and after 80Gb bundled with GT5P model release. This year, PS3 sales stay strong around 30k+ level.

I dont think it stayed around 30K+ level.. more around 20k n i think it also dipped below 10k... 

But this yr PS3 did have a lot of releases n on a constant basis... so it only went up when there is a new game release in the week



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NKAJ on 18 November 2009

ill bank on wii because if im wrong then ill be pleseantly suprised :)



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jarrod on 18 November 2009
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ChrisIsNotSexy said:

I see the Ps3 going 4 million+ after holidays.

Even lifetime, that seems a bit tough.  I mean, it's only selling about as well as a "failed" Wii in it's absolute best year, I'm not sure you can really expect the machine to double it's userbase after 3 years on market.  Saturn didn't, N64 didn't, GameCube didn't, and those are the platforms whose JP sales align most closely with PS3 (GC slightly under, N64/SS a bit ahead).

FFXIII is PS3's biggest game, I'm not sure there's anything possible on the horizon that to keep it from being downhill afterwards.  Maybe FFXV?  It's not getting DQ or MH...

Actually, PS3 will be 4M+ already by the end of November and probably 4.5M+ by the end of this year.

Saturn, N64, GC didn`t have such great 3rd party support as PS3 has. For 2010 alone:

FFXIV, SO4 International, Front Mission Evolved, Yakuza 4, Ar Tonelico 3, Trinity: Zill'Ol, Nier, Lost Planet 2, Dead Rising 2, Super Street Fighter 4, Metal Gear Solid Rising, Sengoku Basara 3, Castlevania: Lords of Shadows, Dinasty Warriors: Troy, First of the North Star, End of Eternity, FFXIIIv, White Album, Last Rebellion, Quantum Theory, RE5: Alternate Edition.

And that are only announced games. Not to mention 1st and 2nd party PS3 games. GT5 also will keep PS3 momentum.

Sorry, I think I misread the original statement... I thought he meant PS3 would go on to sell 4+ million after 2009, not that the install base would be 4+ million when the year ends.  Being between 4-4.5m this year is pretty much expected, I agree with that.

Saturn also had pretty good 3rd party support in Japan (from Capcom, Konami, SNK, ESP and Bandai especially).  Saturn, N64 and GC also all had far stronger 1st party support than PS3 does.   GT5's a wildcard, but it's not on level with FFXIII, and neither is anything else coming to PS3... really, it's just downhill after December...

And after 2009 PS3 will sell 4M+ even before the end of 2012. Only thing, that was holding PS3 back was a price. Now price is affordable and sales have stabilized at 30k+. They are not going below that level for 90% of 2010.

Saturn didn`t have big hitters like FFVII, MGS and GT. All it had, was Sonic. That was not enough. Same goes for N64 and GC, only that they had Mario and less 3rd party support. PS3 has much stronger 1st/2nd party support than GC&N64 had combined.

In terms of 1st/2nd party support PS3 is above Saturn/N64/GC. In terms of 3rd party support PS3 is above Saturn/N64/GC. The only PS3 problem was a price.

PS3 will stabilize at 30k+ for rest 2010 because of games, that i listed above. There are over 20 3rd party games alone. PS3 practically will be getting a new game every 2 weeks. How can it decline??

Why i`m so confident in 2010 PS3 sales? 1 year ago PS3 sales in Japan went below 20k before holidays and after 80Gb bundled with GT5P model release. This year, PS3 sales stay strong around 30k+ level.

lol, no.  VF2 outsold every MGS in Japan and all but 1 GT.  It also outsold every PS3 game to date.  And Saturn didn't even have a "real" Sonic title, it just had spinoffs and collections of old games.  No 1st party PS3 game will touch N64's top sellers either (3 of which also outsold all but the first GT).  Hell, GT5 likely won't pass SSBM either (1.3m).  1st party wise it's no comparison, every Nintendo console pretty much destroys every PlayStation in terms of sales and popularity.  Ever.

PS3 isn't going to double it's userbase either after this year, in fact 2009 will probably be it's peak.  There's just not anything as big as FFXIII+slim to push it again. I bet by the end January it's not moving 30k+ weekly either.

 

 

 

 



Edouble24 on 18 November 2009

Gotta agree with Zorro here, as I don't think the popularity of the slim is a temporary thing. I think it's being seen as a relaunch of a now popular console that doesn't need huge titles to continually move hardware. PS3 will certainly pass 8 million in Japan. I think third parties are really starting to shift over to the HD twins and with PS3 gaining popularity in Japan that should push some of the Japanese support over to PS360. How much has PS3 sold so far this year in Japan? Over 1 million?