The condition for Wii to reach the 10M goal before PS3 reaches 5M is that Wii not only nullifies the current trend of being outsold by PS3 in Japan, but also starts outselling it by >9k/week average for the next 10 weeks AND selling enough to reach this goal, before PS3 gets the FFXIII Jpn boost.

I think PS3 will sell more if we refer to Sep + Oct + Nov + Dec 09. Sep was stunning for PS3, and the white FFXIII Bundle alone will help PS3 to increase the lead in the period above.   After ?  PS3 will continue to sell more.

To answer the question, PS3 will be first.

@alby
true but games like SMW3, FFCC, and tales of graces will give temporary boosts for the week during some given weeks. Plus expected sales in the 2 weeks after FF13 will be key to decide the winner. I mean i think it's gonna be tight, and if one wins over the other by 1 week, it's not quite an achievement for any but rather meaning both are selling and competing, which is very healthy, and i really hope it ends this way

I think the White FFXIII Bundle will be like another PS3 Launch in Japan, with HUGE HUGE numbers, then Star Ocean4, then GT5, FFXIII Versus, etc.  PS3 will continue to sell more in 2010 too.

@ioi The charts do make a compelling argument but I think you're wrong in regards to Wii going up next week. Infact most likely everything will be down, if for no other reason than this:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=88092

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=4917

VG chartz told us the PS3 would sell 600k for september........worldwide.

Lets face it. VGChartz has been so far off on their "predictions" and "analysis" for the slim, its hard to take it seriously at this point. Japan is no different. Its probably best to just wait week to week for MC and Famitsu numbers, id say before we all go blue in the face debating with ioi.

That said, my reasoning is ioi thinks its the wii, so im saying slim based on the recent numbers and recent projections.

Yes, this may take the wind out of console sales for a week.  Wind! See what I did there?

EDIT on Dec 11: Wind out of sales!  I didn't even know I did that!

He looks like Elvis in the photo as an avatar.  Why wouldn't anyone NOT listen to him?

I'm still not convinced that NSMB Wii will boost sales that much over the short term.

Granted it wasn't holydays but Wii sales didn't spike that much when Mario kart Wii was released ( there was a notable hardware boost but it was spread over several months, maybe a whole year).

Granted over the long term the boost will be significant but the PS3 might be able to sneak to 5 millions before that....

Didn't spike much?  It pushed Wii to double the combined total of PS3/X360 for that week (GTAIV week mind you) and more than doubled the Wii's previous weekly average.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39509&end=39656