Folks, let's not forget about the PS3's ace card: BluRay. I think the latest statistics are that 5% of all DVDs are now next-gen format, i.e. either BluRay or HDDVD (BluRay is leading by 2 to 1). This number will continue to climb, giving PS3 sales a permanent speed boost.

The $399/399EUR machine isn't just aimed at gamers on a budget, it's a reasonably affordable BluRay player, and a compelling purchase for the average consumer.

Will raise with the new 40gb to 80 000(NA) for a couple of weeks than go down to 50 000(after Christmas) and go up from there till the next gen.

I fully expect the PS3 to have sold between 7-8m and the 360 between 13-14m by the end of 2007.

I expect the PS3 to have better sales than the 360 for a decent period of time after the release of MGS4, Killzone2 and GT5 whereas I expect the 360 to have a pretty slow period from February through to the summer months IMHO.

So, by the end of March 2008, I expect the PS3 to have sold 10-12m and the 360 to be around 15-17m.

I personally feel the gap between the consoles, which is currently around 7m, will come down to around 5-6m by this time.

I really wouldn't hold you breath on MS getting any respect in Japan. They are going to go with Japanese developed systems for at least the next few generations.

krik said: HappySqurriel said: There really isn't much of a reason to buy a PS3 over an XBox 360 this year (in North America or Europe) being that the XBox 360 has a much larger and better library, and the better exclusive games released within striking distance of the holiday season. At this point, the only reasons some one would choose a PS3 over the XBox 360 is they're a Sony Fanboy, they are really looking for a Blu-Ray player, or they're uninformed. For this reason I expect the PS3 to sell really poorly and only sell 2 to 3 million units worldwide over the holiday season; thus they will be sitting between 7 and 8 Million units sold wordwide as of January 1st 2008. In 2008 I expect Sony to average 500,000 units per month sold wordwide for the first 6 months and thus to hit 11 Million units sold in May or June 2008. I'm not uninformed, I'm a pretty techie dude that works as a Senior Lead Developer in a large corporation, read all about consoles and games, have lots of friends working on the game industry and I would pick a PS3 over an 360. My reasons: 1) Games: Even if the 360 has more games out right now, most games I want to play are either in both PS3/360 or they are on the 360/PC. Also, lots of great PS3 and more coming within the next 6 months. Since I have a pretty good PC where I can play BioShock and Gears of War (soon) I can't even think of another 360 game I would like to play. 2) Hardware: I like Nvidia but hate ATI. 360 makes noise, PS3 is pretty much silent. I don't like Sony but I hate Microsoft even more. I really hate the brick power supply of the 360. I like PS3's black look better tha's whitish. I would hate to be playing a system that has a 30% failure rate and go crazy just to think I would have to deal with MS for a replacement/fix. 3) Life time: PS2 is still a good machine, selling amazingly well with good games coming out. Xbox1 is pretty much dead. It only lasted 4-5 years, not very good when a game takes 2+ years to make. Likelly PS3 will outlive the 360 by at least 3-4 years so it is a better investement over time. 4) Price: PS3 is cheaper - considering I get the HD player ($170 for 360) wifi ($100 for 360) included. 360 + HDDVD + Power brick + WiFi = lots of space, clumsy setup Now, what are your reasons to get a 360? What "must have" games am I missing? Why am I misinformed? PS: I don't like Halo, never did and always preferred Unreal, so don't say Halo3. PS2: I'm getting Unreal 3 on the PC, not the PS3. My PC is better than my PS3, easy ;)

Reason #1 Games - It is completely up to personal choice as to which games you enjoy. However, the edge goes to 360 with more games and more people playing the games. More games sold = More games Made = More games sold .. Not to mention if you have 7 million people playing games with friends vs 2.5 million.. A lot more friends will choose 360. Word of mouth has an effect. Reason #2 Hardware - Some people may hold off due to the rrod but your other reasons are so trivial I would be willing to bet 99% of gamers don't care. Reason #3 Life time - Yeah the ps2 is selling still because of the massive installed base. 360 has the lead and the gap is growing. So there fore its more likely that the 360 will have the larger installed base ensuring more games into the future. Reason #4 Price - 360 wins. You can try to show all the value you want out of the ps3 but the cheaper one will sell more. Well I hoped I helped show why you might be miss informed when it comes to the average gamer. As to you not wanting any 360 games well good luck with your smaller ps3 library.

Crucial said: I really wouldn't hold you breath on MS getting any respect in Japan. They are going to go with Japanese developed systems for at least the next few generations.

I totally agree.  The 360 has sold under 500k units in 23 months in Japan, whereas although the PS3 is supposedly unpopular, it has sold 1.2m in 11 months, less than half the time.

Some 26m home consoles have been sold in Japan for the last generation (PS2, GC etc) and I expect there to be a similar number sold this generation.  So far only 5m next generation consoles have been sold so far between the Wii (68%), PS3 (22%) and 360 (8%).

I expect the PS3 to generally sell at least 3 times the amount of 360 over the next few years in Japan and the Wii should generally sell and I expect the market in Japan to be close to Wii (65%), PS3 (30%), 360 (5%) over the foreseeable future.

If the 360 ever does reach 1m units sold in Japan it will be in 2-3 years time, although I doubt it will ever reach this number in the 360's lifetime.

I expect the PS3 to easily rack up anywhere from 5m-10m and the Wii anywhere from 10m-20m in their lifetimes.

These sales for the PS3 will give Sony an advantage and help them push for more WW sales than the 360 over their lifetimes.

Europe is the market for the PS3 to tackle. 

@ davygee

I would agree to the 5-10 million ps3 pick up over the 360 in Japan. I think Europe will be a lot closer. So far it looks like the 360 will take a large lead in NA. However, I think this Christmas season is sort of up in the air. What effect will the ps3 price drop have? If its just a small boost then I see 360 willing WW.

Oct 07- Great finish to the month with the price drop in EU and Japan,
Exclusive Games (Folklore, Eye of Judgment, Ratchet) Big Games (Stranglehold, GH3)
Blu-Ray Exclusives (Spiderman 3, Surfs Up, FF:RotSS, Hostel)
Nov 07- Massive sales spike, US price drop, Blu-ray exclusives (Cars, Ratatouille, Die Hard)
Exclusive Games (Haze, Uncharted) Big Games (MoH, Rock Band, NFS:PS, CoD4, SvR2008, AC)
Dec 07- Tipical Holiday sales, Blu-ray Exclusives (Pirates 3, Underdog, The Simpsons Movie, Superbad)
Big Movies (Harry Potter 1-5, Terminator 3, Rush Hour 3) Exclusive Games (GT5P, Rat Race)
Games (Orange Box, MX v ATV)
Jan 08- Holiday after effect, Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive, Universal dual platform, Killzone online Beta,
Big Games (Devil May Cry, Burnout Paradise, Dark Sector)
Feb 08- Little Big Planet Arrives, Final Release date on MGS4
GDC (8 Days next Episodic game, Killzone ready for may, Getaway looking amazing, Resistance 2,
new zipper project shown)
Mar 08- MGS4 arrives, UT3 gets in on the rush, Brothers in arms HH, Singstar, MGO
Playstation Home is delivered
PSN gets Music and Video Downloads
Dual Shock 3 Bundle comes out
Apr 08- GTA4 rolls in, Infamous shows up
40GB PS3 349.99, 80GB Good Bye, 160GB 449.99
X360 Arcade 249.99 (no GTA4), Pro 299.99, Elite 379.99
May 08- Killzone 2 finally becomes a reality
GT5 (car damage shown, real time weather effects, Launch date for Aug.)
Sony Gamers Day (Jak and Daxter: Lost Frontire revieled, Getaway update, Resistance 2 update,
Zippers games shown, Motorstorm 2, new games from Factor 5 and Ninja Theroy)
Jun 08- 8 Days Episodes start
3rd parties come through with some decent games
Summer drought begins
Jul 08- E3 08 Games (Dark Cloud 3 announced, God of War 3 first shown, New David Jaffe game,
More updates on games for winter 08, Madden PS3 best version, Big push for Episodic games,
Rockstar exclusive shown, Gears of War 1 and 2 special addition winter 08)

E3 08 Annoncments(Sony Buys Rockstar, Blizzard Goes to PS3/360, IPTV avilable buy years end,
PSN on Sony Phones, Tvs, and BR players, PS2 B/c through software)

FFXIII(Playable for the first time, First game to use 100GB Blu-Ray,
Looks nearly idintical to advent children, Release date not announced)
Aug 08-GT5 arrives
Madden sells best on PS3
German Games Convention (E3 2 same stuff as at E3 just now its in Germany, minor announcments)
Sept 08-TGS(E3 3 a few new updates on stuff from Liepzeg, minor announcments)
Big games will drop, but it is anyones guess to which ones they will be
Oct 08- Price Drops
PS3 40GB 299.99 160GB 399.99
360 Pro 249.99 Elite 349.99
Wii 199.99
More big games will drop
Sales at this point 1 year from now:
Wii - 28M
PS3- 23M
360 - 18M

Over the next year Sony is going to put even more weight behind the PS3. The first half of next year Sony is going to be the one to beat. Nintendo is already starting to try to offset the PS3 blowout by putting Brawl, and Kart in its path. That should be good for them, plus I expect an announcment of Animal Crossing Wii very early next year. If Sony releases Home and an open platfrom download service as planned early next year the brand name will be healing up nicely. If done right they could start to get their service competing very well with iTunes very quickly. If MGS4, GTA4, and Killzone can stay on target, and Blu-ray can kill off HD-DVD, the game will be in Sony's ballpark. At this point they should be able to power their way back into first and slam the door shut on the compitition, but that is only if all goes to plan. As we have seen lately, Sony has a hard time getting stuff done on time, and when it finaaly comes it is useally not done right.

KBG29 said: Oct 07- Great finish to the month with the price drop in EU and Japan, Exclusive Games (Folklore, Eye of Judgment, Ratchet) Big Games (Stranglehold, GH3) Blu-Ray Exclusives (Spiderman 3, Surfs Up, FF:RotSS, Hostel) Nov 07- Massive sales spike, US price drop, Blu-ray exclusives (Cars, Ratatouille, Die Hard) Exclusive Games (Haze, Uncharted) Big Games (MoH, Rock Band, NFS:PS, CoD4, SvR2008, AC) Dec 07- Tipical Holiday sales, Blu-ray Exclusives (Pirates 3, Underdog, The Simpsons Movie, Superbad) Big Movies (Harry Potter 1-5, Terminator 3, Rush Hour 3) Exclusive Games (GT5P, Rat Race) Games (Orange Box, MX v ATV) Jan 08- Holiday after effect, Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive, Universal dual platform, Killzone online Beta, Big Games (Devil May Cry, Burnout Paradise, Dark Sector) Feb 08- Little Big Planet Arrives, Final Release date on MGS4 GDC (8 Days next Episodic game, Killzone ready for may, Getaway looking amazing, Resistance 2, new zipper project shown) Mar 08- MGS4 arrives, UT3 gets in on the rush, Brothers in arms HH, Singstar, MGO Playstation Home is delivered PSN gets Music and Video Downloads Dual Shock 3 Bundle comes out Apr 08- GTA4 rolls in, Infamous shows up 40GB PS3 349.99, 80GB Good Bye, 160GB 449.99 X360 Arcade 249.99 (no GTA4), Pro 299.99, Elite 379.99 May 08- Killzone 2 finally becomes a reality GT5 (car damage shown, real time weather effects, Launch date for Aug.) Sony Gamers Day (Jak and Daxter: Lost Frontire revieled, Getaway update, Resistance 2 update, Zippers games shown, Motorstorm 2, new games from Factor 5 and Ninja Theroy) Jun 08- 8 Days Episodes start 3rd parties come through with some decent games Summer drought begins Jul 08- E3 08 Games (Dark Cloud 3 announced, God of War 3 first shown, New David Jaffe game, More updates on games for winter 08, Madden PS3 best version, Big push for Episodic games, Rockstar exclusive shown, Gears of War 1 and 2 special addition winter 08) E3 08 Annoncments(Sony Buys Rockstar, Blizzard Goes to PS3/360, IPTV avilable buy years end, PSN on Sony Phones, Tvs, and BR players, PS2 B/c through software) FFXIII(Playable for the first time, First game to use 100GB Blu-Ray, Looks nearly idintical to advent children, Release date not announced) Aug 08-GT5 arrives Madden sells best on PS3 German Games Convention (E3 2 same stuff as at E3 just now its in Germany, minor announcments) Sept 08-TGS(E3 3 a few new updates on stuff from Liepzeg, minor announcments) Big games will drop, but it is anyones guess to which ones they will be Oct 08- Price Drops PS3 40GB 299.99 160GB 399.99 360 Pro 249.99 Elite 349.99 Wii 199.99 More big games will drop Sales at this point 1 year from now: Wii - 28M PS3- 23M 360 - 18M Over the next year Sony is going to put even more weight behind the PS3. The first half of next year Sony is going to be the one to beat. Nintendo is already starting to try to offset the PS3 blowout by putting Brawl, and Kart in its path. That should be good for them, plus I expect an announcment of Animal Crossing Wii very early next year. If Sony releases Home and an open platfrom download service as planned early next year the brand name will be healing up nicely. If done right they could start to get their service competing very well with iTunes very quickly. If MGS4, GTA4, and Killzone can stay on target, and Blu-ray can kill off HD-DVD, the game will be in Sony's ballpark. At this point they should be able to power their way back into first and slam the door shut on the compitition, but that is only if all goes to plan. As we have seen lately, Sony has a hard time getting stuff done on time, and when it finaaly comes it is useally not done right.

Fantastic, you've got me convinced you've got second sight.

This thread got way off topic but has sorta moved back... Davygee I see in your signature that you have the 360 at 13M and PS3 at 7m end of year. That would imply the 360 doing quite a bit worse on a global basis than it did last year... I think it was about 3.1 million in total from Oct 1 to Dec 31. I don't think there is any question the PS3 will sell at least 2.5 million consoles globally in the same time period this year which would put it at about 7.5 million end of year.

That said, and since the current delta is about 7.3 million units, your projections would require the PS3 to outsell the 360 on a global basis for the rest of the year by a little over 1.3 million units in total for the OCT-DEC timeframe and I don't think that's going to happen -- or if outselling does happen, it certainly won't be by that margin.