Give me your thoughts on PS3 console sales over the next 6 months to a year

[davygee]

Crucial said:
I really wouldn't hold you breath on MS getting any respect in Japan. They are going to go with Japanese developed systems for at least the next few generations.

I totally agree.  The 360 has sold under 500k units in 23 months in Japan, whereas although the PS3 is supposedly unpopular, it has sold 1.2m in 11 months, less than half the time.

Some 26m home consoles have been sold in Japan for the last generation (PS2, GC etc) and I expect there to be a similar number sold this generation.  So far only 5m next generation consoles have been sold so far between the Wii (68%), PS3 (22%) and 360 (8%).

I expect the PS3 to generally sell at least 3 times the amount of 360 over the next few years in Japan and the Wii should generally sell and I expect the market in Japan to be close to Wii (65%), PS3 (30%), 360 (5%) over the foreseeable future.

If the 360 ever does reach 1m units sold in Japan it will be in 2-3 years time, although I doubt it will ever reach this number in the 360's lifetime.

I expect the PS3 to easily rack up anywhere from 5m-10m and the Wii anywhere from 10m-20m in their lifetimes.

These sales for the PS3 will give Sony an advantage and help them push for more WW sales than the 360 over their lifetimes.

Europe is the market for the PS3 to tackle.