This isn't a flame or fanboy thread. Keep your comments based in some reasonable level of estimates based on fundamental mathematics. If you can't, please move along.  I have a PS3 "on order" and if that doesn't pan out, I'll probably look for a used 60 gig on ebay or wait until the 80s are $399 as I really, really want BC.  I'm not slamming Sony or the PS3.  I want one and will have one.  This is an exercise in mathematical sales projections and nothing more.

I'm going to keep this mathematically simple by dividing the total units sold to people (in homes, not in stores, lol) divided by the number of months the data exists for....

Through 11 months (November-September), the PS3 has sold approximately 5 million consoles according to VGC. This gives us an average monthly sales number of 454,545. We know that very few months saw those kinds of numbers... It was the Initial U.S. and Euro launches that bumped up the averages. That said, it does factor in both launches as well as 1 holiday period so I think it is an interesting number to work with.

Basically what I am looking at is what will average monthly sales look like over the next six months INCLUDING October, November, December 2K7, and then 1st Q of 2008? I'm assuming that we would see at least 2 to 2.5 million PS3s in the last 3 months sold to customers on a global basis. I think there will be some carryover into next year because of the launch of a few hotly anticipated titles. What will total monthly global sales look like in 1Q 2008? 500K each month? If that is a good estimate, then we have an idea of where the PS3 is trending.

Where I am going with this is how long it will take, if possible, for the PS3 to catch the 360. The same mathematical simplicity applied to the 360 gives us 11.8 million over 23 months gives us an average of 513,043/month. The 360 sold, on a global basis, about 3 million 360s OCT-DEC in 2K6 and I believe they will do the same at a minimum this year. Assuming that the 360 returns to it's average 500K/month for 2008, it gives us a fair idea of where the 360 is now and where it will be. With that, we know what it is going to take for the PS3 to close the gap.

If any of these estimates prove to be in the ballpark (and there isn't any compelling evidence to argue they won't be), the PS3 is going to need a big boost in monthly averages to start to close the gap. Assuming Sony can open a sales lead over the 360, how big can they make it on a average per month global basis? I don't think it is realistic to expect Sony to open up a half million units per month sales gap over the 360 any time soon. Maybe it is possible late next year if some of the upcoming games really show the PS3's power is all that they have touted it to be. If Sony doesn't open that big of a gap and do it soon, it will literally take years to close the gap...

There really isn't much of a reason to buy a PS3 over an XBox 360 this year (in North America or Europe) being that the XBox 360 has a much larger and better library, and the better exclusive games released within striking distance of the holiday season. At this point, the only reasons some one would choose a PS3 over the XBox 360 is they're a Sony Fanboy, they are really looking for a Blu-Ray player, or they're uninformed. For this reason I expect the PS3 to sell really poorly and only sell 2 to 3 million units worldwide over the holiday season; thus they will be sitting between 7 and 8 Million units sold wordwide as of January 1st 2008.

In 2008 I expect Sony to average 500,000 units per month sold wordwide for the first 6 months and thus to hit 11 Million units sold in May or June 2008.

I don't think the PS3 will close the gap on the 360, ever. I'm thoroughly convinced it will come in last this generation, and by a fairly large amount. I've heard a lot of talk about how the PS3 is tracking evenly with the 360 if you align the launches, and that the 360 has more quality games because it's in its second year, but I think that's besides the point - the launches aren't aligned. The 360 beat the PS3 to the punch and the price point, and thusfar, you'd have to be a tech head to even notice the graphical difference between the two of them. The massive number of million sellers, mostly from third parties, on the 360 is something else that 3rd parties will notice, and they'll continue to make games for the system.

I'd say the PS3 had an edge in terms of Japan, but I don't think it will be a big one this generation. The 360 has 3 million sellers from Japanese companies, and the PS3 has none. Japanese developers will take note. The end result will be good for the 360 in both Japan and the world at large.

I think the only thing that can prevent the 360 from maintaining its lead is a continued RROD problem, but I'll reserve judgment as to the degree to which that is a problem for now.

And where will the 360 be sitting at?

I think that we've seen the worst of the PS3s sales now. After these price drops and new models have worn off we will be very close to Christmas and sales will be picking up again.

I think that by the end of the year the PS3 installed base will be around 7-8 million.

Sony will be starting next year on a much higher note than last year, a much more attractive price point, and a larger library of games. Japan will also be seeing a new colour.

In Feb/March time we will be seeing the release of Metal Gear Solid 4, Grand Theft Auto 4, GT5:Pro and Killzone 2 (whether or not this game is good, I still expect it to sell quite well). As well as many other smaller games and Home.

I also think that we'll start seeing platinum releases for some of the eariler games: Resistance, Motorstorm and Oblivion I'm guessing.

I'm not going to speculate on numbers, but by the end of March next year I think that Sony may have taken the lead (over the 360) in Europe.

Which asks the question: if Sony can grab hold of two regions and come second there, how well does it have to do in the US to beat the 360 WW.

200% in NA increase on 40GB release week, subsiding to normal (for Christmas period) after a month. Very low sales through Q1 2008, 80% of now, picking up when all those delayed games begin to be released. Installed base 6.5 million on 1st January.

Worldwide I expect a similar rate from the XBox 360 gaining a little more than 3 Million units at Christmas and 500,000 units per month for the first half of 2008; this will work very well for Microsoft as it will be creating a pretty dominant lead in North America and Europe and begining to establish itself as a product in Japan (rather than its complete non-presence with the XBox).

If what each of you say is more or less accurate, the 7ish million gap will continue at least through the middle of next year. Barring any major announcements, price moves, or other signifcant events, that puts the PS3 behind the 360 on a global basis well into 2009... If it carries into 2010, we would probably be seeing the plans for the next Xbox iteration.

It will explode in november and will obliterate the competition in 2008.

@Soriku:
Soriku do you have a bet we dont know about and thats why you havent put the PS3 numbers 6.5million-7million?

@Topic:
PS3 sales
October07-Good sales due to 40GB and price drop.
November07-Better sales due to same things + Christmas rush and games.
December07-An explosion of sales.
Over Christmas 07 i expect a good 3-4million PS3 sales.
3-3.5million X360 sales
4.5-5million Wii sales.
January08-Sales settle at about 50-100k a week.
Febuary08-Sales spike again due to anticipated games.
March08-PS3 outsells Wii and X360 WW due to MGS4,Killzone2 and GT5.

Rest of the year is a mystery...

I expect on 1stJanuary08
PS3:8-9million
Wii:15-18million
X360:13-15million
March08
PS3:10-11million
Wii:16-18.75million
X360:13.5-15.5million