I don't think the PS3 will close the gap on the 360, ever. I'm thoroughly convinced it will come in last this generation, and by a fairly large amount. I've heard a lot of talk about how the PS3 is tracking evenly with the 360 if you align the launches, and that the 360 has more quality games because it's in its second year, but I think that's besides the point - the launches aren't aligned. The 360 beat the PS3 to the punch and the price point, and thusfar, you'd have to be a tech head to even notice the graphical difference between the two of them. The massive number of million sellers, mostly from third parties, on the 360 is something else that 3rd parties will notice, and they'll continue to make games for the system.
I'd say the PS3 had an edge in terms of Japan, but I don't think it will be a big one this generation. The 360 has 3 million sellers from Japanese companies, and the PS3 has none. Japanese developers will take note. The end result will be good for the 360 in both Japan and the world at large.
I think the only thing that can prevent the 360 from maintaining its lead is a continued RROD problem, but I'll reserve judgment as to the degree to which that is a problem for now.
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