Well, that's a bold prediction... I think it could go a couple of million over last years sales, but not 7.

But we have no idea what the price cut will do. $200 is a low price for something with a free game. Seems like a pretty good deal to me. Mabye recession hit people who have been holding out will buy one?

New wi fit might help sales, but NSMB will definately. remember, last year there was no big wii game to intice people in the holidays, and it was supply constrainted.

So it Could just make your prediction, but it's a very long shot and not likely as far as I'm concerned.

NSMB game is only system seller I see happening. WSR was great but system seller, no. Motion+ seller, yes.
Very optimistic prediction and best of luck to you on this. Black Wii will be the system seller over anything else if it occurs. Just like PS3 fans are buying up the slims to replace their bulkier console, the black Wii will sell amazingly to those that are tired of the white console. If they would push some more system features with commercials like they had in the beginning, I could then very easily agree with the predictions but I think it's too far into the life cycle to be pushing such high numbers.

Yes I mean THREE system-selling games.

Wii Fit Plus is capitilizing on a market that is already disruptive and already selling systems. It can only further entice new gamers to play if it is more accessible and more fun than the first. Guitar Hero II did it, why can't Wii Fit Plus?

People also haven't been giving WSR a fair chance. Let Iwata explain it for you:

"In September, which people overseas call "back-to-school," people start to pay more attention to home consoles. If we can convey the appeal of Wii Sports Resort to existing customers then, it will surely contribute to the sales of hardware and generate good momentum toward the holiday season. So we feel that Wii Sports Resort will drive hardware sales mainly in Q3 from October to December."

October to December! This is why I think Wii has a chance of doublling it's holiday sales from last year. If WSR really starts driving sales in November, and Wii Fit Plus and the price cut buoys sales up in October, it should be no suprise. Plus when New Super Mario Bros Wii is released, it will send sales over the top.

So yes! 5 consectitive weeks at 2-3 million! I'm not crazy. I have logical explainations for this if you read thorugh the above post. If you don't believe me... just put away you're finger pointing and lets just wait until December before you start force-feeding me your crow.

While I'm way too lazy to search for the articles, I am positive I've read that Galaxy 2 is essentially done, but Nintendo wanted NSBMWii this holiday and obviously they wouldn't put two Mario games out on top of each other.

THAT and:

1. Galaxy 2 and Metroid are the only big IPs Nintendo has revealed.

2. 2008 saw SSBB and Mario Kart Wii come out in a similar fashion.

I put Galaxy 2 early Feb and Metroid late March to be exact.

@mortono: Have it your way, but you are really out of your mind if you believe there will be 15 million Wiis sold in 5 weeks.

This is to you and others who doubt Wii will outsell 2008 holiday by a lot.

1. NO SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS

Last year Wii was still constrained and selling nearly double on Ebay. Now, this is not the case for many reasons; plentiful stock, no big games since Mario Kart, PS360 being similar or cheaper prices, etc.

This the first holiday where Wii's will be plentiful and in stock until the last week or so before xmas. It will finally sell amounts it could've sold in 2007/2008.

2. WSR + WiiFit+  + NSMBWii + NSMB fucking Wii.

WSR and WiiFit+ individually won't push Wii to new levels, which is exactly why Nintendo chose to do a price cut. They realized that sequels aren't enough to push 2008 numbers. However, combined during a mass market frenzy of shopping during xmas when most non-gamer or non-core gentiles purchase their stuff, these games will drive sales. On top of that you have the beast that will topple Mario Kart Wii, known as NSMBWii.

NSMBWii is being way under appreciated by many of you. It's DS version was an amazing game. I bought a DS just to play it and sold both when finished (for only a $25 total loss, not bad). It has all of the amazing goodness of a 2D Mario game plus up to 4 player coop which will actually make me buy two more controllers (black). This game alone will push many a Wii out the door, quote that biatches.

Holy christmas, my 7 and 6 yr old have spent a ton of hours playing LEGO Starwars and Ghostbusters coop on the Wii. Ghostbusters will be the first game they actually beat. I guarantee you that the coop feature alone on this MARIO game will push its sales into the stratosphere.

3. PRICE CUT

I find it funny how when 360 finally dropped to $199 it sold butloads and dramatically increased a long term trend in its sales, yet Wii who has yet to have a price drop won't affect it much. wtf. That makes SOOOO much sense.

Wii's price cut will easily outdo both 360's drop to $199 and while it may not match PS3 Slim 1st week *maybe*, it will destroy both combined throughout this holiday.

4. 3RD YEAR IN MARKET

This is effectively the Wii's third year. This is the year when consoles generally peak.

Examples: (1st years, due to launches are either slightly less or more than 12 months of actual sales)

PS2

1st:  5.6m (10mos)
2nd: 16.1m
3rd:  21.4m (peak)
4th: 19m
5th: 16.1m

GC

1st: 7m (14mos)
2nd: 6.1m (peak due to 14mos 1st year and it being the quickly losing console)
3rd: 4.3m
4th: 2.9m

xbox

1st: 7.2m (16mos)
2nd: 5.6m
3rd: 6.6m (peak considering 1st year is 16mos)
4th: 4.1m

*********************

Wii

1st: 19.1m (14mos)
2nd: 24.2m (8.5mos = 13.1m)
3rd: 10m (8.5mos no xmas)

360

1st: 7.9m (14mos)
2nd: 7.8m
3rd: 10.8m (8.5mos = 4.9m)
4th: 5.5m (8.5mos no xmas)

PS3

1st: 8.8m (14mos)
2nd: 10m (8.5mos = 6.1m)
3rd: 5.5m (8.5mos no xmas)

*********************

As you can see from last gen the pattern is pretty much right on. PS2 and xbox peaked 3rd year, while GC peaked early but, fell off a lot quicker as well. This gen is a little awkward in that the console prices starting and current are overall higher than last gen. Especially considering the $200 price point not being reached within 3rd year for PS3 as it has been for all other gens. This higher average pricing and no runaway marketshare leader might actualy cause a peak for all consoles in their 4th year. However, there is absolutely no way Wii is going to sell less this year than last overall considering pts 1,2,and 3 above.

Can't believe it, but for once I actually agree with you trestres. Feels weird.

The price cut will help sell systems as will NSMBWii. I don't see WSR and WF+ doing much for system sales but both will be strong sellers. A black model at $199 would probably sell to a lot of HD systems guys who were too cool for Wii but would pick one up a black one 'cheap' to sit beside their black PS3 slim.

I also don't see MoM or SMG2 selling any systems either. Metroid fans own Wiis already and if you didn't buy a Wii for SMG your sure not going to for the sequel. It's like saying Halo ODST will sell 360s.

But all in all, 17m is too optomistic unless Nintendo does a huge media push and Sony/MS do none at all.

1. Then how wii is selling now less than 2008 when it was supply constrained? It should sell more, right?

2. Sequels aren't system sellers. NSMB wii? I don't see that moving a lot of consoles.

3. How many times we have heard that it is not about the price... when wii was the cheapest console, many argued that price was not the selling point of wii. 50$ is not big enough cut to get a big boost for any console.

4. lolwut.... generally, that sums it up.

I did not say that nsmb is a sequel. It might sell a lot, but to general public it is just another mario game. It won't move that much hardware as some people hope it would do.