Sure it's too early.  That's the reason why I was refering to CoD4 as a good start. I simply meant PS3 is stronger hardware wise (IMO) and we'll witness effects of this superiority in the near future.

I agree with kber81. PS3 is stronger but how many developers will reach out to that potential? PS3 isn't THAT more powerful to devote resources to show this. I think we'll see something like last gen where differences between Xbox/PS2 multiplatform games were subtle.

I see some bad logic in pegging a consoles success on two games. I think it was bad logic for the Sony fans to do so, and I think it was bad logic for Nintendo fans to do the same. When I see someone say Mario, and fitness will blow the other consoles out of the water that is what comes to mind. All the tired arguments can be trotted out. However it does not nullify the question. Can these two games prop up the Wii through the holiday season in Japan.

Personally I hold reservations about Wii fit. We need to be cautious about this title. This is basically a exercise game the very definition of a niche title on the face of it. The game could do well, but then again it holds the potential to do very poorly. It all depends on whether consumers want to use their console as an exercise machine. Especially since titles like Wii Sports already fulfill this function. Will new buyers purchase this game or Wii Sports. I would say Wii Sports. I also think that title has shown itself to be the real system mover.

A Mario platformer is very likely to spur some console sales. How much remains to be determined. We heard the argument that those people that had to have Halo 3 would have bought the console prior to launch of that game. However there seems to have been a sizable number that had not, or have not yet. The same logic can in part be implied to Mario.

To me the game that just might be the Nintendo star this holiday season is neither of these titles, but Mario and Sonic at the Olympics. A game that has the mascots, and is obviously a party game. Which seem to have done exceedingly well on the console. Just paying attention to the trends here.

"This is basically a exercise game the very definition of a niche title on the face of it."

Exercise a niche? I think you're looking at it from the wrong angle. To many people exercise is mainstream and video games is niche. And I don't really think it's that much similarities between Wii Sports and Wii Fit.

I think SMG will be enough to sell out until Mario Kart/Smash comes out, after that they'll need more factories...

You know some people are going to be real shocked when Wii fit does not sell a million copies. The expectations are unrealistic your talking about a mainstream audience adopting a niche format to exercise. Ironically you shove your foot into your own mouth. Your saying a game console with a unique peripheral is going to outperform dedicated work out equipment?

Enthusiasts are not idiots, and people looking to get in shape are looking to be more then fit they are looking to be buff. Your not going to get buff on a Wii board. Balance exercises do not build big muscles, or give you that desired washboard.

Your arguing that the mainstream consumer who is not a gamer is going to spend hundreds of dollars on this machine plus a game for the dedicated purpose. While they can spend that money on a gym, and work out twenty minutes three times a week and get rock hard abs. Unless Nintendo shows people getting on the board getting buff, or losing a hundred pounds your not going to a drastic shift.

Anything is possible but you must confess the logic for it doing so is incredibly weak. This is the power pad for a new generation.

Excercise trends the last decade or so has not been much about getting buff. Yoga, Pilates, Tai Chi, different dance classes...

I think you're seeing it from the angle of the macho male who goes to the gym to get his rock hard abs. And it might be true that Wii Fit won't sell a lot to those people. But it will sell a lot to the others, and we're the majority.

And about Power Pad vs Wii Fit. Nintendo are really getting behind Wii Fit and the mainstream press will love it. It will be Power Pad done right.

Sure, Wii Fit will sell at least a million wordwide. I'll take that bet.

I

Leo-J. Why? Why did you do it?

I don't want you banned temporarily from the board. Cklmb or whatever his name was used to try to goad me into those ban bets all the time and I ignored him. This ain't NeoGAF. Hahahahahahaha.

Listen, you're gonna lose this bet, man, and I'm not for silencing people from the board. I actually like when the Sony fans contribute (for my own reasons).

Change the bet to a temporary signature addition and we'll have a deal.

Something like "Leo-J was right" or "John Lucas was right" in the signature. Or "all bow down to leo-j for he is most wise" or something like that.

If you insist on making this bet under these conditions then I guess we'll be missing you around here for Thanksgiving. Don't be a jive turkey (see the connection between turkey and Thanksgiving), make the right conditions.

John Lucas 

Dodece said: The hardware sales are out for all regions, and what a remarkable week it has been for hardware. Surprises abound, and every region has a story to tell uniquely its own. Sony beats the competition in the other regions. Microsoft lays a minor beating on Nintendo in North America. Nintendo has slid into mediocrity in Japan. Perhaps the most interesting fact is that perhaps Nintendomination has come to an end. Month after month Nintendo has easily dominated the competition in all the markets. Sometimes outselling their rivals by multiples. Sometimes two, three, or even four to one. However this week its not the case even though Nintendo still won. They did so by the smallest margin. The Xbox 360 is within fifteen thousand units of the champion. The PS3 is only sixty thousand units off the reigning champ. Obviously Microsoft is the likely contender at this moment, but the PS3 is starting to show some strength in Japan. So the whole owning that market just might be in doubt.  What does everyone think is Nintendomination over, or are their two rivals hitting them with a well timed attack that only makes it appear so. Frankly I hope we see a good fist fight this holiday season between Microsoft and Nintendo. Not sure Sony can get into the tussle in a meaningful way when it comes to dominance. However Sony could be a spoiler for Nintendo especially in Japan. What do you guys think are this weeks charts sending us a message?  Charts for quick reference in this supremely dugg site.   Japan America Others 76,826 111,861 158,975 347,662 70,133 75,365 62,027 207,525 19,660 88,843 75,033 183,536 3,413 123,098 42,244 168,755 13,646 31,394 77,827 122,867

1.  HELLO!  Halo 3, the biggest game of all time, just launched three weeks ago, ya think that maybe people are buying the game and the system?

2.  The PS3 announced the Price drop/ feature drop in other territories.  Do you think that maybe people are snatching up the sixty gig PS3's while they can still have bc, or maybe they're purchasing the 40 gig one?

3.  Nintendo hasn't had any real releases and will soon slip out of it's "mediocrity" in Japan when Super Mario Galaxy releases in a few short weeks. 

On a side note, the PSP beat out all of the major consoles this week, YAY!

Xbox 360 sales are much higher than their normal rate.  This is Microsoft's best time of year, and they're coming off the release of their once-in-a-generation Halo 3 release.  And now Bungee went third party.

Nintendo sales are in a slump.  It's reasonably safe to assume they *will* pick up for the holiday season, and Nintendo will be selling out everywhere again.  It's also reasonably safe to assume that Super Mario Galaxy will hit and make a huge splash, and it will surprise a lot of people who aren't watching games closely.  The game looks so amazing I can't help but wonder how the general public will be affected by it.

Nintendo's baseline sales in Japan are disconcerting, but we have to remember what Nintendo has done so far as well as what they haven't done: their biggest franchise release and a price drop.  They've got Mario coming and they've got Smash coming.  This will wake up a lot of Wii owners who have fallen asleep.

You're taking a snapshot from a point where Microsoft is abnormally strong and Nintendo's strength is in a slump and then you are wondering outloud if this will be the new way things go, or if this is part of a trend.  Obviously, Microsoft is doing well due to its big release, but Nintendo's strength has yet to be truly tested.   Give this battle a little time before you try to determine whether the war is changing fates.