Day one purchase for me!

Hmm I'd say beetween 500-1000k for first year.

I think I'll pass it as Fahrenheit had way too much QTE for my taste.

Considering the PS3's installed base will have greatly grown, and the type of consumers playing a PS3 would have indeed changed too (less hardcore gamers, and casual gamers now attracted by the lower price), I'd say Heavy Rain could easily make 1 million units sold by the end of 2010 with proper marketing support.

Indigo Prophecy: History will repeat itself.

I loved IP, but I love adventure games (which puts me in the minority of console game *purchasers*).

I think for all the people here who are saying "This is a MUST BUY", what a good portion of them really mean is "This is a MUST BUY once it gets a price cut to $20 because I'm not paying full price for a timing-sensitive button-press interactive movie"

Will it be an engrossing story? Undoubtedly.

Will it have replayability in any real meaningful sense? The kind that pulls people right back to playing it again?
Nope. Some posts I've read insist that they would play the game once, put it away for a while and get back to it later for another playthrough. I have a stack of dusty games boxes for which I made the same promise and I think other people do, too. Once through is pretty common for a non-multiplayer experience.

Will it do much more than make its money back? Possibly, but I wouldn't call this any kind of a serious mover.

Note: HR is my kind of gaming experience, I like adventure games, I'm sure I'll love this, I'm just ...keepin' it real, yo.
Most of y'all game purchasing public aren't going to kick out for a once-through, no multiplayer, button-press-only experience for $60.

The game has plenty of replay value. Each time you play it you will get a completley different outcome depending on your actions.

Well, fair enough if that turns out to be true.  

If you are suggesting that in the middle of the first act you can go right, rather than left, and the entire story will change and lead you to different acts 4, 5 and 6, then bring it on! That would be fantastic.

If you are referring to 'in this playthrough I saved the kid from drowning, so he was able to thank me in the last act' as completely different outcome, that's less compelling.  ...and more likely, based on IP.

In reality, with a 'choose your own path' game, the amount of content necessary to get 'completely different outcomes' is staggering.

In any case, all those completely different outcomes must be coded and tested, unique art and audio assets created, which adds to the development time of the game, which adds to the development cost of the game (they are all pulling a salary), which ultimately affects how quickly (or even if) this game will be profitable.

Obviously, if the cost of the game is reduced, the number of copies sold must increase.

If all those who are signing up for "This is a MUST BUY" don't support the game by purchasing it, it'll suffer the same fate as IP, which is to be well regarded and under played, and yet more proof that these types of games aren't worth developing at this level of quality.

That would be a very wise move by Sony. I've always wanted them to acquire Quantic Dream and Insomniac, to be honest.

You're saying it like innovation works against earning money while in fact it's usually the other way around - you have to constantly innovate to stay competitive and be able to earn money. Heavy Rain is a good example of that.

Had Quantic Dreams made Heavy Rain with traditional point 'n click mechanics instead of this fast dynamic use of QTE's for action elements and decision making, then the game would be far more overlooked by this generation of gamers.

No I didn't say that, I meant that innovation is risky. Most companies these days milk franchises like crazy just to get money rolling.

Meh I really don't care if Heavy Rain sells below a million, as long as it has quality (Which is likely it'll have)
It is a new ip after all in a genre where there arent too many games for