yeah thats right, a pchter thread big woop(ah) wanna fight about it?
Wii HD
Q: You've stated many times that you're convinced there is a Wii HD coming. What are the incentives you see for Nintendo to actually make such a move? Nintendo can't realistically expect 50 million+ Wii owners to upgrade to another new console can they?
Nintendo can't afford to allow any potential PS3 or Xbox 360 buyer to pass up a Nintendo product in favor of the better graphics and more feature rich gameplay offered by the others. Many commentators continually state that "graphics don't matter." I completely disagree.
If one has a standard definition TV (that's 2/3 of U.S. households and 80% of European households), perhaps they don't care, since the graphics difference isn't quite as striking. However, when a household gets an HDTV, all they think about is HD content. There's a reason why every network has switched to HD programming, and it's not about being charitable.
Once the majority of households have HDTV (this should be year-end 2010 in the U.S. and year-end 2012 in Europe), the majority of households with consoles will begin to appreciate the inferior display offered by Wii games. The gameplay is great, but the experience would be more enjoyable in HD. Further, while Nintendo has its phenomenal first party lineup, third party games tend to be made "for" the Wii, and they're just not as good as the Xbox 360 or PS3 versions. Many games (GTA?) aren't made for the Wii at all. Ultimately, the Wii audience will grow more sophisticated, and will want games like BioShock and GTA, and they won't be offered on a Nintendo platform unless the platform can process content similar to what is offered on a 360 or PS3. That requires a hardware upgrade.
Who knows when? It will happen when Nintendo sees its lead eroding. They're still in first place, and likely will remain there with a $50 price cut. However, once they can make a Wii HD (I prefer Wii Plus) and price competitively with the 360 and PS3, they can legitimately say that nobody should ever buy either competitor device, since they will get all Nintendo first party titles plus comparable quality third party games. Of course, Microsoft will argue (likely successfully) that Xbox Live is a differentiator, and Sony will push Blu-ray, first party and PSN as differentiators. I think that Nintendo MUST do this to remain competitive, and think it's a fall 2010 event, driven by a need to respond to the introduction of Natal and the Sony Wand.
Will PS3 win this holiday?
Q: Judging by the August NPD, PS3 sales already saw a nice sales boost thanks to the lower price. Do you think PS3 will outsell the competition this holiday season? Who do you see putting up the best holiday performance - MS, Sony or Nintendo?
Sony will see a huge spike, probably to 400,000 in September and October, but these figures remain behind Nintendo's numbers from a year ago. If Nintendo cuts price by $50, they'll stay in first place. I think Microsoft finishes third this holiday, but expect another price cut from them next year.
Madden on Wii
Q: Madden once again sold pretty poorly on the Wii. Why do you think that is? Any advice for EA?
Madden isn't promoted properly to the Wii audience. They don't have a history of playing EA Sports games (at least half are new to the console experience), don't read IndustryGamers (or Game Informer), and the game is not at top of their mind four weeks before the football season starts. I expect a lift in sales now that Madden is getting more mainstream advertising with NFL games.
Apple's gaming intentions
Q: During a recent event in San Francisco, Apple for the first time stressed iPod Touch as a gaming device and called out DS and PSP as inferior products. What signal does this send to the games industry? How serious is Apple going to get about the games space?
The iPod Touch is a serious problem for everyone in the games industry. Clearly, Sony and Nintendo will suffer if parents like me buy an iPod Touch for their kids instead of a DS (I intend to buy two this holiday). Anyone with a Touch can download several games for the price of a single DS game, and many kids under 10 don't really appreciate the difference between a high quality DS game and a low quality iPhone game. At the end of the day, Tetris is Tetris and bowling is bowling, but Nintendo will continue to differentiate with Mario and Zelda games. The bigger problem I see emerging is that consumers will be "trained" to expect games on portables to cost under $10, with many priced at $2 or lower. Once parents become accustomed to buying games for less than $10, it's going to be hard to win them back at the $20 - 40 price point commanded by DS and PSP games. The hardcore will still buy the Monster Hunter, GTA and God of War games, but even GTA is going to the iPod Touch.
I think it will be interesting to see if GTA is (a) good and (b) priced above market when it shows up on the iPhone and iPod Touch. If it's $40, my guess is that nobody will buy it. If it's $10, it has the potential to cannibalize the price point for DS and PSP games.
Apple is deadly serious about participating, and I think that they will use the wealth of games in the App store to migrate to the Apple TV platform, a la XBLA, so that they can kick off their console games offering with several thousand games, then upgrade selectively.
Toys 'R' Us and the used market
Q: What's your take on Toys 'R' Us doing a nationwide trade-in program for used games, even for legacy systems? Will this allow the toy chain to grab a bigger piece of the video games market? Will it have any impact on GameStop?
The Toys 'R' Us used game program shouldn't have much effect, since their core customer is a housewife with small children. The housewife doesn't play many games, and her children don't have many. It's highly unlikely that she has any legacy games, unless she kept them from her childhood. I think that the legacy offering is a gimmick, and think that TRU will not be a serious competitor in the space.
so basically theres some very good analysis here unles shes talking about nintnedo in which cas ehe come sout with crazy talk about nintendo needing a price cut to come first and how HD is a neccesity as causal gamers will start wanting to play GTA and Bioshock. he wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy overestimates the importance of HD to people
nintendo fanboy, but the good kind
proud soldier of nintopia
