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Pachter: Sep. Games Sales Up 47% on Halo 3
By Tom Ivan
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that Halo 3 acted as a catalyst for bumper software sales through September, with Microsoft the obvious beneficiary in terms of moving games and Xbox 360 hardware.
Ahead of NPD’s forthcoming announcement of September sales statistics, which Pachter expects to be released Thursday October 18, the analyst forecast software sales of $655 million, up 47 percent year-over-year.
The estimate reflects $530 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS), including $300 million in software sales for the Xbox 360, and current generation software sales of $125 million.
“We believe Microsoft’s Halo 3 drove most of the sales growth, accounting for over $200 million (3 million units) in sales… Although we think that sales of Halo 3 accounted for virtually all of the growth during the month, we think that the game drove hardware sales and positions the industry for even greater sales in November and December, when many Halo players will be ready for a new challenge. We are optimistic about software sales through the end of the year.”
Nintendo’s The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (DS), Sony’s Heavenly Sword (PS3) and Midway’s Stranglehold (360, PC) are also expected to be amongst the top grossing titles during September, while strong continued sales of EA’s Madden NFL 08, Nintendo’s Wii Play and Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, as well as Activision’s Guitar Hero games are forecast.
On the home console hardware front, Pachter predicts that Microsoft shifted 450,000 Xbox 360 units during September, in comparison to 425,000 Wii consoles and 150,000 PS3s, and forecasts growth throughout the holiday period.
Pachter also expects PSP sales to be up 151,000 units month-over-month to 252,000 on the back of the release of the PSP Slim, while Nintendo hardware sell-through, although impressive, is likely to have been curtailed by supply constraints.
“Although comparisons remain difficult through the holidays, we expect continued strong (+10% or greater) sales growth for the rest of the year."
The Wedbush Morgan analyst suggests a PS3 price cut is imminent along with the introduction of a US 40GB SKU. PS2 pricing could also be slashed, while Microsoft may introduce the long-rumored Xbox 360 Arcade pack.
“We expect retailers to soon run out of the discontinued Sony 60GG PS3, and we continue to expect a price cut for the new 80GB model (without a game bundle) to $499.
“We think that the introduction of the new 40Gb PS3 at a $399 price point is imminent, with an announcement likely before the end of October.
“We also think a PS2 price cut to $99 is possible before the end of the year.”
Pachter forecasts that EA will be the highest grossing third party publisher, racking up $130 million in software sales during September, followed by Activision and Take-Two with $47 million and $30 million worth of sales respectively.
