By quickly looking at the software totals for the week, the first thing to notice is that PS3 sold an increase of 16%... this increase is from the previous week with the huge debut of Batman. The only major debuts was guitar hero which didn't sell that well. Considering the drop from first week sales of Batman, PS3 software sales should have also dropped overall. The X360 sales shows this clearly. Even with it's price cut X360 sales dropped 11%.

While some games may not have spiked to number 1, a variety of older titles did have spikes of roughly 5k... like valkyria chronicles, uncharted. Other games like Fight Night Round 4 and Prototype sold more then the X360 version. Looking through all the sales data I'm sure total boost could be calculated. Including bundling in Japan, a lot of software sales can be accounted for, even with a certain percentage replacing their older models with a new. This also does not include use games sales and the fact that each game should sell less with time according to the standard trends of game sales.

If I had access to all the software sales and hardware sales data I could show this more clearly.

I've stated it several times.
Even if you don't calculate Batman's sells for the week ending 5 septemer, you will still see an increase of around 50% in SW sells since the week before Batman debut.
Doing the same while looking at 360 SW, you will see a minor (0.5%+-) difference in sell since the same week.

Hardware bump was way better than the software one. When they say that the brand is profitable i think they mean more than this sales for software. Sure, it's goos a bump after the drop of Batman AA, but i expected more software, like 20-30% more than the last week.

You have to consider that some of the hardware sold was to previous customers. About 400,000 units above the previous week. Lets say half of those were old owners, so 200,000 new PS3 owners on average bought 1 game (200,000) which happens to be the bump in software from the previous week.

Obviously this is a weak guestimate.

ioi said 30-40% only in Japan and has been attacked by a lot of people, you now say 50% worldwide. Prepare for a lot of criticism against you! 15-20% worldwide sound right to me.

Did you read the part where I said it was a weak guestimate? Its a baseline. You could read my guess as a worse case scenario, ioi's estimate as maybe a mid to best case scenario (despite what people hope, there _were_ people who traded in their fats for slims).

Yeah and the Gundam game ..

50% is a pretty big increase.

On top of that the drop of Batman sales was 30k more then predicted using X360 as a base case. Don't really know how accurate that is though.

It's not anywhere near 50%

If we take out Batman, Guitar Hero and Gundam (esentially leaving games that have been out for a while) then you're left with these figures

5th Sep - 940k
29th August - 800k
22nd August - 860k

I agree with you (not on the numbers but as you said it's just an estimate, like mine), but there's a lot of people who think that no one old PS3 owner would buy the Slim because it has not BC, only 2 USBs and so on, while we know that the Slim model is a way in which sony sells HW to both new customers and old customers, not like the Arcade--> Pro--> Elite does (maybe that works just for a small percentage of customers).