We will never truly know how much of the spike is truly caused by GT5 though. Since it's most likely coming out the first week of December, which is a huge holiday time. It's impossible to say how much of the spike is from GT5 and how much is just from people buying PS3's as presents that week

Gow3 will sell more than the first and second part but not by much just look at mgs4 it outsold mgs3 at a lower user base and still selling mgs4 could reach 5 million thats 2 million more than mgs3 so anything is possible.

Well yeah, given the fact that the ps3 will probably be selling upwards of 60k in NA on a normal week anyhow, as opposed to 20k or so for the ps3 in Japan.  :P

FFXIII should boost the ps3 to 120-180k (depending on how many people already bought a system for the demo), and GoWIII should do something similar in NA.

Percentage wise, GoW will have a markedly weaker effect on sales than FF.  The western hardware markets aren't near as affected by software as the Japanese market.  You never see dips and spikes in the NA/EU markets becuase of software like you do in Japan, where things jump around on a weekly basis.

if Europe catches onto GOW3 the sales will have a huge increase over previous iterations in the series.

Anyone know why GOW on Ps2 didn't sell so good in Europe???

The new GOW collection might attract some of those PS2 owners who played GOW.
If Uncharted sold 2.5m as a new I.P with a lower install base why can't GOW 3 do better?

I think GOW 3 could do 3m+ as long as it gets a proper marketing and a fair ammout of hype.

No m8 you can't be that ignorant...tell me it aint true...my god

I say that because when you compare the NA sales to EU and Japan it seems like GOW didnt really have a big effect. I mean it sold over 2M in America alone but wasn't able to push a Milli in EU? Im not saying the sales are bad just when you compare region-to-region God of War III won't have a big impact in EU while on the contrary all signs point to it giving the PS3 a massive spike.

I expect only a minor spike.

What I wanted to express is that every outstanding game is part of the whole process to lift consoles... Maybe there are some titles which significantly lift up sales - I'd agree with you and CGI that FF XIII in JP is indeed one of those titles as well as GT5 in the western territories.

On the other hand every AAA title is even one more reason to get a system - and said that - is the true reason for Playstation consoles to develop a long tail (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Tail#Statistical_meaning) now for PS3 and in the past (PS2 already had one). And I guess a long tail is worth more than short peaks followed by just fractures in sales because this phenomenon is responsible for a long term success. That's just another way of looking at it. Hope you understood my point.

And I won't be disappointed because of software or system sale rates (as it looks right atm) - as long as I can get the game for myself and enjoy it ;) That's what some of you guys seem to forget about - the joy playing the games and not just discussing about them. :D