But he won't be unbanned by the time you win that bet assuming he's alt from all his posts...

god, you will have to wait til the end of the gen to know who will win this.

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=52

I don't think so, if you look at the 52 week point it becomes very clear that even if GT4 didn't stagger its launch, by week 26 the much higher sales rate (trend) of NSMBDS would have taken the lead as GT4 had already began to really flatten out.

Same here, NSMBWii will kick off well due to holidays and then sell at a very good rate for a long time like MKWii. It just hits that mass market sweet spot, where GT games do not.

Also, keeping in mind the much smaller user base.

Going to be very interesting.

I can see GT5 having a huge launch, while NSMB Wii will have a slow start, then amazing legs. [Look at Uncharted]

I was going to ask what people's overall expectations for GT5 were, but if they haven't changed since this thread, http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=83417, PS3 fans are expecting far too much from it. It may not have sunk in what the comparatively small userbase means for even the really big titles.

Yeah... but we are not talking about the 52 week point.... the prediction is for the first 26 weeks, and had GT4 been launched WW simultaneously it would have beaten NSMB at the 26 week mark.
But as I mentioned that is because NSMB launched too early in the DS life to get huge numbers early on, except in Japan but that was because the DS basically exploded there.

Doesn't matter how small the userbase is.

Well it does... of course it does.

but yes it doesn't affect it proportionally (so half the userbase will not mean half the game sales for a single big game)

GT5 is unlikely to fall short of 7 million lifetime though, and could manage about 10 million if it is really good (or bundled a lot)

NSMB Wii though, well, it's a tougher one to put a "minimum" on, but I would be suprised if it fell short of 6 million lifetime, however it's the upper potential that makes it more likely to beat GT5, as it could exceed 20 million if all goes well.

That's pretty ballsy.  What kind of numbers are you talking about?  I.e., is your prediction more focused on GT5 being hurt by lower PS3 numbers or NSMBWii just exploding all over the place?  If the reality comes anywhere in the ballpark of TWRoo's upper GT5 expectation (10 mil), that's a pretty high mark to reach in 6 months. 

It's a tough call- it depends on how the fan base reacts. Games like galaxy and mario party 8 only sold 8 and 6.66 million respectively. GT4 sold around 10 million but it was on a system that had a user base in the hundred millions.