NSMBWii vs GT5 (AKA I just made a bet, tell me if I'm an idiot)

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TWRoO said:

Here is a NSMB (DS) comparison to GT4


Japan: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=Japan&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=26
(NSMB wins easily)

Americas: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=America&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=26
(GT4 wins just... but bare in mind PS2 was incredibly popular back then, wheras DS in America was a slow starter)

Others: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Others&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=Others&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=26
(GT4 wins easily.. but again NSMB launched before DS was up to speed in Others)

Overall: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=26

NSMB wins, but mainly because GT5 had a more staggered launch.

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So I would say first 26 weeks will probably be about this:

Japan:
NSMBW - 1.5 million
GT5 - 800k

America:
NSMBW - 3 million
GT5 - 1 million

Others:
NSMBW - 2.25 million
GT5 - 2.75 million

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So GT5 will reign in Others (though I expect NSMB might catch it eventually) but in America and Japan NSMB should easily triumph.

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=52

I don't think so, if you look at the 52 week point it becomes very clear that even if GT4 didn't stagger its launch, by week 26 the much higher sales rate (trend) of NSMBDS would have taken the lead as GT4 had already began to really flatten out.

Same here, NSMBWii will kick off well due to holidays and then sell at a very good rate for a long time like MKWii. It just hits that mass market sweet spot, where GT games do not.

Also, keeping in mind the much smaller user base.