10 Reasons why the PS4 will Launch in 2014
Is Sony on track with their ten-year plan?
by: Chris Stead 12/10/2007
1. Developers are Still Learning the System:
The PS3 is a complicated beast. Like any new system, there is a learning curve for developers as they seek to come to grips with the new architecture and the peculiarities of its technology. None more so than the PS3. From its complicated cell processor to its Blu-ray player and everything in-between, the PS3 is not like visiting a new country; it’s like exploring a new planet.
We have seen numerous examples of the struggle developers are facing with the PS3 in its infancy. Many multi-format games, like Colin McRae: DiRT, are finding their PS3 edition delayed for months at a time. And even ports of old games, like The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion and Rainbow Six: Vegas have proved more challenging than first envisaged, delayed, and delayed again. In fact, the PS3 is proving to be such a complicated animal that even established middleware like the Unreal Engine 3 is finding the terrain difficult to navigate, causing delays in products like Unreal Tournament 3.
With this in mind, it is looking more and more likely that the PS3 will not be maximised with common middleware and will require its own foundation tech, which will take time to develop. And much like the PS2 before it, which is still being mined of new potential to this day (just look at God of War 2), developers are going to take plenty of time to grow into a symbiotic relationship with the PS3. This means it will be a few years before software for the console gets a roll-on, and next decade before we start seeing the system’s full capabilities unleashed.
2. The Blu-ray Life Cycle:
History has shown that new media-formats have a ten-year window of opportunity before an inevitable technical revolution supersedes it, retiring them into a life as beer coasters. Floppy drives ruled the late 70’s to late 80’s, CD-ROMs had a good run from then to the late 90’s, followed by DVDs until the present day. That latter format is quickly running out of momentum and as far as Sony is concerned, Blu-ray (not HD-DVD) is the next step for the entertainment industry. But wouldn’t that media history suggest a new format launch in the late, not mid 10’s?
Like we saw in the last generation switch, there will be a ‘softening period’ where the new, superior format has an opportunity to grow its roots before it sprouts into a flowering tree. This would suggest that a new format is due around 2014, even if it is not commonplace until later in the decade. Although the word ‘format’ could be misleading. Unlike the trends predicted over the last thirty years, the next ‘format’ is not expected to be tangible, with digital downloads almost certain to be the new consumable for the technologically savvy. Although various analysts argue over exact dates, it is fair to assume than by 2014, households in the western world will be ready to download their media en masse and have networks capable of delivering it in a respectable quality. Thus marking the time when the phasing-out of Blu-ray, and the PS3, will begin.
3. The PS3 is Highly Adaptable:
When Sony designed the PlayStation 3, they left it open to wider technological advancements beyond their control. The ability to connect devices to the machine via Bluetooth means that headsets, keyboards and other such gadgets that work alongside the console can evolve on their own tangents, but still be completely functional with the PS3. How long will Bluetooth be the de facto wireless technology? That is the question, but with the technology still growing through developments like Ultra-Wideband Radio we can expect it to stay relevant to the middle of the next decade.
In addition to this, the PS3 can accept any 2.5” hard-drive, meaning that it will easily kep pace with the growth of digital media in the coming seven years. Unlike the Xbox 360’s clunky propriety hard-drive system (which is expensive, and terminal to the data stored on the previous drive), Sony will not be forced to upgrade the core design of their console to stay ahead of this trend.
4. The PlayStation Network Can be Fixed:
Arguably one of the weakest points of the PS3 is its online system. But in truth, the problem is not so much in the system’s functionality, but in the interface, which looks clumsy in the wake of Microsoft’s Live Marketplace. Playing games online with Sony’s PlayStation 3 is actually a smoother experience than many Xbox 360 games, with local servers producing good play speeds and many games, such as Warhawk, featuring easy and painless lobbys.
More importantly, the firmware update system leaves the door open for Sony to evolve the PSN into something much more sophisticated down the track. Indeed, the whole concept of Home is a leap up from a traditional dashboard, offering users a MMO approach to navigating their multimedia experience. If Home hits its potential, then it could very well make text-based dashboards seen on the Wii and Xbox 360 look old-gen in an instant, leaving the PS3 in pretty solid shape.
5. The PS3 is Prepared for HD Revolution:
One of the biggest criticisms of the PS3 in its current, super-expensive state is that to actually make use of its output potential, you need to spend more than double the console’s cost on HDTVs and 7.1 home theatre systems. Certainly in 2007, such devices are limited to the high-income market, therefore leaving the PS3 somewhat marooned between broader technology leaps. But by the end of this decade, such technology will be far cheaper and much more prevalent in lounge-rooms across the western world. When, not if, the HD revolution happens, the PS3 will be ready and waiting.
We have already seen an indicator that Sony believes such a revolution is closer than many of us think. The announcement of Play TV is a monumental moment for the company. It effectively turns the PS3 into a high-definition set-top box, with the ability to record any sort of TV in premium quality to the hard-drive. With standalone HD set-top boxes currently coming in at close to $1000, the PS3’s perceived value is growing by the instant. Sony promised the ultimate multimedia machine, and it looks like that could come to fruition, giving the console legs way into the future.
6. Expect a Slim-line SKU:
The PS3 is pretty frickin’ huge. You might be able to do your makeup in its pretty, reflective exterior, but you could also use it to rob a bank. It’s immense size is counter-balanced by its blissfully quiet Blu-ray drive and the in-built power-box, neither of which have caused the reliability issues seen in the Xbox 360. Time will tell whether PS3s will begin to melt down the track, but the PS2 held up pretty bloody well for its seven years, leading us to assume similar stability in the PS3.
This gives Sony time. Microsoft is busy trying to individually repair seemingly every console sold across the globe, while simultaneously heading back to the drawing board in an attempt to solve the root of the console’s problems. Meanwhile Sony can focus on a Slim-line SKU. They did one with the PSOne, PS2 and PSP with great success, so a Slim-line PS3 is in their plans. And by the time it hits the market, the technology will be cheaper, which should lead to a more affordable, or at least a more profitable machine to combat the Xbox 720.
7. Sony is Popular in All Territories:
While the PS3 may not be selling its USBs off at present, it’s not being blackballed out of massive commercial territories like its competitor. With well over a decade of success across the planet, the PlayStation is a respected brand. And Sony itself is known for its quality electrical goods. No matter what your personal feelings might be about Japanese arrogance and nationalistic loyalty, the bottom-line is simple: Sony doesn’t have to push forward the launch of their next console to make it a success in specific territories. Microsoft, on the other hand, have such a hard-on for breaking it big in Japan the next Xbox could head in just about any direction in desperation.
8. Sony Rules the Mainstream:
If one thing is becoming more and more apparent, it is that gaming is rapidly growing its demographic. The Wii has played a role in that, but for all that console’s sales success it still plays second fiddle to the PS2. The lifestyle genre – led by SingStar, Buzz, EyeToy, The Sims and Guitar Hero – is the single dominant reason for the growth of the games industry into new areas and Sony was first on the bandwagon. They tapped into this market in its infancy and know how to mine it for all its gold. They have also developed huge brand awareness over the last few years. As gaming continues to surge into new markets through the next decade, these brands will give the PS3 the legs to push through to 2014 without a need for mass technological upgrades.
In addition to this, previously mentioned technologies - like Play TV, Blu-ray, and full HD support - places the PS3 in the best position to be the console of choice for consumers who think of gaming as a subsidiary to broader multimedia functionality.
9. The PS3 is Future-proof:
If we think the Xbox 720 could launch as early as 2009, won’t Sony be forced to follow suit or run the risk of being outdated itself? It’s a valid question, but in light of all the reasons above, you would have to think that PS3 would be immune to such pressure. There is certainly an argument that the Xbox 360 is a half-generation hop, rather than a next-generation leap. Now we’re sure that comment will run rough with the Xbox faithful, but really, where can the Xbox 360 go other than to add the functionality seen in the PS3? We’ve already seen such a mentality with the Elite, which adds HDMI.
Indeed, Microsoft may be forced to release a new console, or at the very least a completely overhauled SKU, just to add the PS3 functionality that is set to come into its own in the coming years. Sure, the Xbox 720 could add more horsepower to the system, improving the graphics, but if the PS2 and Wii have proved anything in their success, it is that graphics are not driving consumer spend.
We also have the emerging markets to think of. India, China, and other second-tier countries on the cusp of entering the ‘developed’ world will find themselves buying into the mainstream technological world a couple of years down the track. This is when the PS3 will be hitting its prime. Such a timely boost in global revenue will give the console a mighty hit, launching it with vigour deep into the next decade.
10. The Ten-Year Plan:
So if Sony has been vocal from the start about their ten-year plan for the PS3, then why launch in 2014, and not 2016? Surely, given all the reasons above, the console will make that distance with ease? Well, we do think the PS3 will be selling well and receiving plenty of software until 2016. But Sony has shown their cards when moving between generations twice already. Generations don’t just stop, they segue, and Sony has developed a brilliant endgame over the years ensuring that they support technology right through to the end, no mater how bitter than end may be (mini-disks, BETA, UMD).
Launching a new console in 2014 will not deviate from the ten-year plan; in fact it is no doubt part of it. Give the PS4 and it’s technology two solid years of slow-burn growth and acceptance before abandoning the PS3 and giving us the next-next-generation.
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