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Forums - Nintendo - Wii Storm cant be stopped !!!

dharh on 29 August 2009
Alterego-X said:
dharh said:

^

First, console wars are muddled. A great number of console owners are in fact duel console owners. I have all 3. Taking away a significant part of Nintendo's audience basically means "Oh by the way you Wii owners should get a PS3/X360 also cause we have something you like that Nintendo doesn't offer." You may entirely be right that Nintendo's current 'upmarket' as you put it strategy will block SONY/MS 'downmarket' strategy. I don't really see it quite so black and white, but ok.

 

You guys and your blue ocean analogy. The Good Enough strategy IS a way to create a disruptive tech. I don't think its the exact same as Nintendo's Blue Ocean but it sort of does compare.

The Wii has Good Enough performance, its above the GC but can't match the other consoles of the gen, but a large significant segment of the gaming population are fine with it (maybe even prefer it, far as I can tell). It made the Wii cheapest to buy out the gate.

Motion controls are simple enough and intuitive its easy to become efficient in controlling whatever game uses it. This allowed people to play games that had never done so before (this is by the way the blue ocean strategy, get new gamers). The controls are Good Enough for alot of people for alot of games, but not all people and not all games.

Look at the Flip camera. It does nothing new at all, all it does is focus on the KEY elements of a digital camera, make it intuitive to use, cheep to buy. It completely disrupted the digital camera market.

 

I think, that you are mixing the Blue Ocean Strategy, and the Disruption Strategy (and also made up your own "Good Enough Strategy" WTF?!)

These are both existing, well defined strategies from business professionals. The former means, in short, non-competition and exploring new markets.

The latter is a much more complex process, and while it DOES begin with finding a blue ocean of downmarket users,  you make it sound like if that would be all, and the two markets could peacefully live near each other. But that is wrong.

 That graph I quoted, was used by Clayton Christensen, the writer of the Disruption books. Upstreaming IS a vital part of the disruption, not just "a possibility". If a company would simply find an underserved niche, it would not disrupt anyone else by serving them. The disruption happens when the disruptor kicks the previous market leader in the groins, and destroying them, hence the name "disruption".  Even if Nintendo would be unaware of the Disruption Strategy that they started,( but they are aware), they would upstream. Every company, every product is upstreaming. It is the natural thing to do. (The first step, that indeed uses the KISS principle, is more like the anomaly, this is why disruptions are rarely started.) Starting the disruption is the "revolution", while the usual business process is an "evolution", (including the continuing of the disruption). 

That's the whole point. While now motion controllers are only "good enough" for the downmarket, they will natually evolve, until they are good enough for the upmarket. And when they are going to evolve, Nintendo will be in the front line.

If the console war would be a real battle, Nintendo would put itself on the high ground, from where they can attack to downhill swiftly and powerfully, while the enemy attackers woud be slowed down, an tired while charging uphill. (this high ground also happens to be called the "downmarket", so yes, my analogy sucks from that perspective)

 

 

Trying not to beleaguer the point. The Good Enough Strategy is a newish strategy (although not really, its just only now getting recognized). I didn't make it up, there are articles around that talk about it, maybe even a book or two. 

Disruptive does not really mean non-competition (blue ocean). Because by the very nature of it, it takes away customers from the established base. It just also happens to also flood the market with newcomers.

I am not alone in distrusting the notion that motion control is the end all be all to gaming. But I already agreed with you that SONY and MS are going to try and go downmarket and Nintendo is going to go upmarket. I don't agree that magically Nintendo is going to whoop the others. Their track record does not warrant such confidence.

Do I think Nintendo will almost always profit more than the others, even if it goes back to second/third place? Probably.

 



A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.
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astrosmash on 29 August 2009

One huge handicap that MS and Sony with have with reaching the casual audience is that its unlikely the devices they have announced will garner the same amount of maninstream press that the Wii has; don't count on Ellen or Oprah telling housewives to go buy the PS360.



hanafuda on 29 August 2009
SaviorX said:
The one thing that people constantly fail to realize, is how difficult it will be to implement these motion controls usefully into the PS3/360.

It has taken 3rd parties 3 years to get a grip on the motion capabilities of the Wii alone, with the majority of efforts before being shovelware as "practice".

Even if these new motion controls are adapted to 1/3 quicker, it will be by 2012, a point way too late in the console cycle to spur any renewed interest in the consoles, especially the 360.

Nintendo shouldn't be concerned at all, at least not within this generation. Haters be damned.

You've never played Flower?

PSN - hanafuda

griffinA on 29 August 2009

Motion controls for the HD twins will fail. Both systems heavily rely on the ease of porting games from one system to the other so publishers share costs. However, games made for Natal and the Sony wand can't be ported easily.



"Pier was a chef, a gifted and respected chef who made millions selling his dishes to the residents of New York City and Boston, he even had a famous jingle playing in those cities that everyone knew by heart. He also had a restaurant in Los Angeles, but not expecting LA to have such a massive population he only used his name on that restaurant and left it to his least capable and cheapest chefs. While his New York restaurant sold kobe beef for $100 and his Boston restaurant sold lobster for $50, his LA restaurant sold cheap hotdogs for $30. Initially these hot dogs sold fairly well because residents of los angeles were starving for good food and hoped that the famous name would denote a high quality, but most were disappointed with what they ate. Seeing the success of his cheap hot dogs in LA, Pier thought "why bother giving Los Angeles quality meats when I can oversell them on cheap hotdogs forever, and since I don't care about the product anyways, why bother advertising them? So Pier continued to only sell cheap hotdogs in LA and was surprised to see that they no longer sold. Pier's conclusion? Residents of Los Angeles don't like food."

"The so-called "hardcore" gamer is a marketing brainwashed, innovation shunting, self-righteous idiot who pays videogame makers far too much money than what is delivered."

mike_intellivision on 29 August 2009
griffinA said:

Motion controls for the HD twins will fail. Both systems heavily rely on the ease of porting games from one system to the other so publishers share costs. However, games made for Natal and the Sony wand can't be ported easily.

That's an excellent point. After all, it is all abot the software.

Wii Sports sold the Wii initally. Wii Sports Resort is welling Wii Motion Plus and will help to further sell the Wii console.

 

Both Sony and Microsoft are trying to grab the new consumers -- but will be doing it at a somewhat higher price point. Their base machines, plus motion, plus one game will be $100 to $150 more than a Wii with Wii Sports (and $50 to $100 more than Wii and WSR with WMP).

 

Since the casual market is perceived to have higher price sensitivity, that will make a difference.

 

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

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bazmeistergen on 30 August 2009

Of course, Dharh, there is a classic controller for old school needs. See Monster Hunter 3!



Yes.

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dharh on 31 August 2009
bazmeistergen said:
Of course, Dharh, there is a classic controller for old school needs. See Monster Hunter 3!

I understand some people think that this is good enough, but I honestly can't play a lengthy session with non-ergonomic controllers. It's fine for playing maybe 30 minutes, at most an hour. Then I have to put it down for a couple hours.



A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.
disolitude on 31 August 2009

Yes, Wii dust storm for a hardcore gamer is pretty big at this point. Its unstoppable even with a 4player mario game...



mesoteto on 31 August 2009
Alterego-X said:
dharh said:

I don't really agree with the premise that if SONY and MS try to beat Nintendo at its own game (casual and motion control) that they will burn. They will attempt to do both casual and hard core, motion and traditional gaming all at once (at least SONY will definitely try that). 

What? If they believe that they can take away a significant part of Nintendo's audience AS A SIDE MISSION of their "true hardcore" console war,  that's the very definition of beating Nintendo in its own game. 

And if Nintendo senses the slightest chance of the other two trying to go downmarket, or "casual", as you said it, they will counterattack. And they will win, because the downmarket is their new core. They will fight like a trapped animal, and they  have much greater rescources than either Sony's or Microsoft's gaming division.

I just thought that this thread needed more color , i mena come on really there is no point to plain text when i can do this in color...there for we should in fact reort to al color text.

I take issue with the notion that there is any more blue ocean strategy left for Nintendo to do. You can boil the blue ocean strategy down two ways. One is 'disruptive' the other is 'good enough'. In some ways both are saying the same thing. Keep it simple stupid.  

WHAT??? Sorry but you are totally wrong. Disruption is the complete opposite of what you described.

 

In short, it could be described as: 

1. Find a blue ocean, with new values. 

2. Find the downmarket, the least demanding part of the market

3. Start upstreaming, A.K.A. Making your Blue Ocean downmarket product Harder, Better, Faster, and Stronger, until it kicks the old value upmarket's ass hardly, and make it leave the market.

i remember this time back in 1953 (even if i was not even a sperm to my dad or half an egg to my mom) when all kids used to type in color...back when color was new and fresh...why my great great great uncle Wifred B Damandable invented color...it just a shame that some yuppie patent lawyer decide to sue and he had to settle out of court for the right..other wise i would be rich i say

 

 

and another point...we need more pictures.....some thing that better shows disruption..i know

 

in other words the BLUE ocean is going ot be nins water supply for a while Sony?Micro your ship is saling to late



 

mesoteto on 31 August 2009
dharh said:
bazmeistergen said:
Of course, Dharh, there is a classic controller for old school needs. See Monster Hunter 3!

I understand some people think that this is good enough, but I honestly can't play a lengthy session with non-ergonomic controllers. It's fine for playing maybe 30 minutes, at most an hour. Then I have to put it down for a couple hours.

you have my pity...never will yo know teh joy of a pizza greased NES control as you take mike tyson down...nor will you ever enjoy the feeling of rocking Donkey Kong Country with sweaty palms as you time that barrel blast just right on the 8th try