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Forums - General Discussion - Vgchartzville's Mafia Round 3 - Game Thread

Words Of Wisdom on 30 August 2009
Khuutra said:

I notice you have cast non votes in any direction, WoW.

I explained my position in the post at the top of this page (13 posts back).

Person Voting To Remove ( Removed | Killed  ) Identity

Day 1
  
Words Of Wisdom
 No Lynch
zexen_lowe No Lynch
Gnizmo dtewi
insomniac17 Soriku  
Soleron

Khuutra No Lynch
Craan Soriku  
dtewi Soriku  
outlawauron  
Dgc1808 Soriku  
Onyxmeth Soriku
  
RCTjunkie Soriku  
Falcon095    
Soriku Words Of Wisdom
 

 



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Khuutra on 30 August 2009

I still want the inactives.

In the games I used to play we would string up inactives.

It worked pretty well.



Words Of Wisdom on 30 August 2009

It would make the game go faster, but not everyone posts on the weekend like we do. If we go around lynching people without cause then we're likely to shoot ourselves in the foot. We won last time by luck, but I don't like betting on luck. ^_^



Khuutra on 30 August 2009

I'm not suggesting we do it NOW, of course.



zexen_lowe on 30 August 2009

Well, if we pile on the three that didn't speak, we'd be likely to pick at least one mafia right? What are the odds?




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Khuutra on 30 August 2009
zexen_lowe said:

Well, if we pile on the three that didn't speak, we'd be likely to pick at least one mafia right? What are the odds?

I'm not suggesting we do it today.

As to the odds, ask Soleron. He's better with statistics than, uh... lots of people.



dtewi on 30 August 2009

EDIT: I lied. I have no idea about the probability.

I just did it this year. Think!

The chance of selecting one person and them being mafia is 21%. Out of 12 people, the likeliness is 100% due to there being 3 mafia.

Oh, fuck, I can't remember.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

dtewi on 30 August 2009

It's either really simple maths, or a complicated solution.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

dtewi on 30 August 2009

Gah. Nvm.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

Words Of Wisdom on 30 August 2009
dtewi said:
Here's the solution.

x number of people/14 +1/7. Or, x+2/14.

3 people. 5/14. 36%. I forgot to subtract 64 originally. Well, there is a 36% chance of one of them being mafia.

Why are you assuming there are 3 Mafia and not 4?  I don't remember c03n3nj0 telling us the number of Mafia in the game.

That said, here's the math assuming 3 Mafia:

{M, M, M} 3/14 * 2/13 * 1/12 = 6 / 2184

{M, M, T}  3/14 *  2/13 * 11/12 = 66 / 2184
{M, T, M}  3/14 * 11/13 *  2/12 = 66 / 2184
{T, M, M} 11/14 *  3/13 *  2/12 = 66 / 2184

{M, T, T}  3/14 * 11/13 * 10/12 = 330 / 2184
{T, T, M} 11/14 * 10/13 *  3/12 = 330  / 2184
{T, M, T} 11/14 *  3/13 * 10/12 = 330  / 2184

{T, T, T} 11/14 * 10/13 *  9/12 = 990 / 2184

This is a standard 3 sample of population 14 with no replacement and 3 successes.  The odds are 55% of getting at least 1 Mafia, 9% of getting 2 Mafia, and less than 1% of getting all 3 Mafia.

I'd do the math for four Mafia but I'm sleepy.