Vgchartzville's Mafia Round 3 - Game Thread

[Words Of Wisdom]

dtewi said:
Here's the solution.

x number of people/14 +1/7. Or, x+2/14.

3 people. 5/14. 36%. I forgot to subtract 64 originally. Well, there is a 36% chance of one of them being mafia.

Why are you assuming there are 3 Mafia and not 4?  I don't remember c03n3nj0 telling us the number of Mafia in the game.

That said, here's the math assuming 3 Mafia:

{M, M, M} 3/14 * 2/13 * 1/12 = 6 / 2184

{M, M, T}  3/14 *  2/13 * 11/12 = 66 / 2184
{M, T, M}  3/14 * 11/13 *  2/12 = 66 / 2184
{T, M, M} 11/14 *  3/13 *  2/12 = 66 / 2184

{M, T, T}  3/14 * 11/13 * 10/12 = 330 / 2184
{T, T, M} 11/14 * 10/13 *  3/12 = 330  / 2184
{T, M, T} 11/14 *  3/13 * 10/12 = 330  / 2184

{T, T, T} 11/14 * 10/13 *  9/12 = 990 / 2184

This is a standard 3 sample of population 14 with no replacement and 3 successes.  The odds are 55% of getting at least 1 Mafia, 9% of getting 2 Mafia, and less than 1% of getting all 3 Mafia.

I'd do the math for four Mafia but I'm sleepy.