I think a 'good userbase' is relative to the other systems on the market; the Gamecube at 20 Million had developers abandon it because the PS2 was pushing 80 Million and the XBox was giving incentives to develop for its 10+ Million North American userbase.

If the N64, Gamecube and Dremacst taught us anything it would be that, regardless of how strong your first party development is, third party support is the key to a large userbase; Mario 64, The Legend of Zelda OoT, Goldeneye, Mario Kart, Banjo Kazooie, Super Smash Bros, Mario Party, Donkey Kong, Starfox, 1080 snowboarding and Perfect Dark were all smash successes on the N64 but didn't provide enough force to push the system to the next level (in terms of sales). Not to be rude but the only series Sony has which could match the sales of many of Nintendo's series on a userbase as small as the Gamecube or N64 would be Gran Turismmo; Jak, Ratchet and Clank, and Socom gained a lot of sales because of the popularity of the PS2 more than anything else.

Source you think that the PS3 sales will double in 2008? that is a little far fetched......

I know that and agree with that...I think that 3rd parties will produce a good number of good games for both the 360 and PS3, but the exclusives will get thinner on the ground (unless there is a big cheque involved).  You cannot rely on 1st party to save a system...but it will help.  The Gamecube came onto the market too late IMHO.  The Dreamcast got shutout from EA and that effectively killed it.

Personally I just don't see an out and out total winner this generation by such a huge margin.  That's why I reckon all three platforms will have a decent existence on a whole. 

slowing is one thing, but 9 million in 24 months is basically stopped for a machine that is selling roughly 4X that.
I can't see how they will sell less than 25 million by the end of 2008....and even that would be massive slowdown.....remember Nintendo is always conservative when giving estimates for their retail sales, and they are expecting 22 million by March 2008.

I personally don't think it's far fetched at all.  I honestly think the PS3 sales will more than double next year going from 7-8m to 18-21m just 12 months later.

Don't forget that the PS3 has the bumper release list for the 1st and 2nd quarters next year with Killzone 2, MGS4, LittleBigPlanet, Tekken 6, Gran Turismo 5, GTA IV, Home, Devil May Cry 4, Soul Calibre 4, Infamous, MG Online and Unreal Tournament III (if it doesn't appear pre-Xmas) to name just a selection.

I believe that the Wii will be in the lead by a good margin, with the 360 following that (at least in America), and PS3 close to but not yet reaching the 360 by the end of '09.
The numbers will look something like this:

End of 2009
Wii 55m-60m
360 32m-34m
PS3 27m-30m

Reason for this is as many of you have said, 3rd Party Support. The support for the Wii will grow and burgeon with new small developers and indie groups making small but great games. Small Dev houses can't compete on the HD consoles because of the cost of development.

The 360 is in 2nd place because it isn't as difficult to make games for as the PS3.

The PS3's Cell CPU is very difficult to program and optimize for. Also unless the PS3 comes way down in price and gets a couple of AAA great games it won't get out of 3rd place.

It's not that crazy to think a console will sell more in it's second year than it did in its first year, especially for PS3 which wasn't on sale for a full year in Europe in 2007.
Xbox 360 sold more in 2007 than it did in 2006. In fact I think that if you don't increase hardware sales every year than your system is a flop. With that in mind:

2007
Wii - 15-20 Million (Depending on Supply)
360 - 15-20 Million
PS3 - 6-7.5 Million

2008
Wii - 40-50 Million
360 - 25-30 Million
PS3 - 12-20 Million (Man PS3 is hard to predict)

2009
Wii - 65-85 Million
360 - 30-40 Million
PS3 - 18-35 Million (I got no clue)

The second year of a console should sell more than the first year. The third year should sell about the same or a little less than the first year. Each year after that should sell a couple million less until its phased out.

Oh don't even start that kind of talk, no one's attacking anyone.

Translation: Why not just say PS3 will be number one if you're going to be so daring to say it will even be number two. Suggesting both claims would be equally as bold.

I would be personally upset if something so trivial deserved a warning especially when I see other members get away with calling people idiots, powderpuffs and so forth. So trolling threads is permitted but questioning someone else's predictions is taboo? If you say so.

Most board users aren't as well versed as others making them falsely seem hypocritical. Sometimes I feel as if topic creaters, those of topics that I post in response to, and I are the only ones actually posting anything. It is a very desolate existence at times.