I agree with the OP. I think it will sell but not at the levels the diehard fans are predicting. I think the PS3 will top the 360 - and even ODST won't help matters. However, I think after the newness of the price cut wears off, the 360 will retake the lead. Sony better bundle games with it - especially for the holidays - because MS will release a couple bundles.

And a $199 (or is it $179)

I wonder if Sony gonna start advertising the hell out of the PS3. And they need to make better commercials and show off how good the graphics are.

The USA is Wii territory, just like the rest of the world.

But after that the USA is MS territory now. My opinion is that the US is lost to Sony from now until MS gets out of the console game (i.e. forever) unless MS makes a PS3-like blunder. From a bigger picture perspective this will be the ONE lasting effect of the PS3's underperformance. The rest of the world will forgive and forget, heck they will do that this holidays I think. But the US has adopted one of its own (at least for 2nd place for now). Unless Ninty pulls something out of the hat again next gen I think MS will own the USA outright. To put up a cliche: the US is Microsoft's to lose next gen and from that point on. Next gen Sony and Ninty will be fighting for 2nd place in the USA. The big question is will MS be able to dominate the US to such an extent that they will sell the most consoles over all in the next gen? MS will always be in 3rd place in Japan (as long as there are 2 Japanese console makers). So the real battle for MS will be the rest of the world. They pulled out a lot of stops to make huge in-roads in the rest of the world, but I'm pretty sure they will end up behind PS3 by a fair margin in Others when the generation is done. I'll be watching UK and Aussie with great interest over the next year or so.

worldwide sony can win this holiday season, but beating 360 in the US is very difficult.

I agree that Sony has blundered in the US.

Sony has virtually zero chance of outselling MS in the US outside of the next 4 weeks or so. Once ODST hits, it will be MS back on top. The holidays will handily go to MS because of the arcade bundles that are sure to come. $299 is still way to expensive at the moment.

In 2010, MS will probably bury Sony (and possibly even Nintendo) with Natal.

OUS, Sony will be ahead for the rest of the year. However, when Natal launches it will be up for grabs, although I give MS a better chance of winning EU than Sony. Japan is a foregone conclusions so it isn't worth talking about.

With the currently announced pricing from Sony and Microsoft, the PS3 will easily outsell the 360 this holiday season worldwide. As for the US, it's hard to say for sure - but I actually expect the PS3 to slightly outsell the 360 there as well. Microsoft's price cut/SKU shuffling just isn't aggressive enough to counter a $299 PS3 slim.

i think sony will win europe and japan this holiday, but m$ will win the states, for the hd consoles. but the wii will win the overall sales battle i think.

Sony should start advertising now about the $300 price point. I was at 2 Targets today(unsuccessfully trying to find Professor Layton 2) and one was sold out of $300 PS3's but the other had about 12. Im pretty sure if Sony said anything about it would be different.

On a completely different note I was at FYE(where I got Professor Layton) and there was a note in marker behind the counter saying "It is okay to put out PS3's."